Russia May Escalate Fighting Instead of Negotiating for Peace: While President Donald Trump is optimistic that there is an end in sight to the Russo-Ukrainian war, Vladimir Putin has other ideas. Despite incessant drone and missile strikes from Ukraine that have flattened energy infrastructure, the Russian dictator has no plans to stop fighting anytime soon. Putin believes that his forces can still take all of Donbas, giving Russia the belief that it can achieve its strategic objectives in the war.
No End to the Meatgrinder
Switchblade Drone. Image Credit: Industry Handout.
Sources close to Reuters have concluded that Putin wants to escalate the conflict, but Russia is absorbing 30 to 35,000 casualties a month. Putin is likely to order a new mobilization of recruits. The military is reportedly kidnapping people off the street and sending them to the front without proper training. Ukrainian drones then kill them on the battlefield.
Tanks and Armored Personnel Carriers Have Become Rolling Coffins
Putin is not deterred and is looking to start a revamped offensive this month to eject Ukrainians from territory that Russia believes it rightfully owns. Russian armored columns are having no luck against the wall of drones and anti-tank missiles that Ukraine uses to punish the invaders.
No Peace Deal in Sight
Trump has declared that both sides want a “deal,” but that seems unlikely in the coming weeks. President Volodymyr Zelensky is ordering massive drone strikes to hit Russian civilian targets. Refineries and oil processing centers are being destroyed nightly. This has caused fuel shortages and long lines to purchase gasoline. Ordinary Russians are finding out that the war is touching them in a way not seen in prior years of the conflict.
Zelensky’s NATO Dreams Have Infuriated Russia
Russia is likely still smarting from the recent NATO summit in Turkey. Zelensky called for Ukraine to join the alliance, which is a red line for Russia. Putin fears that NATO wants to institute regime change in Russia. He thinks that NATO could encroach more on territory that is part of Russia’s Near Abroad, which constitutes former Soviet republics and satellite states.
What Can Russia Do to Win?
Putin has plans for the eastern part of the Donbas. He seeks total war against Ukraine to dislodge Zelensky’s forces from the region. How he accomplishes that is unknown. Putin has ordered nightly attacks on Ukrainian cities that have killed civilians and sent people to the subway in Kyiv for shelter.
No Good Russian Options
The military situation facing Russia does not favor the invaders. Using an armored thrust is out. Flying airplanes into the conflict zone to launch missiles and drop bombs has not been effective. Even desperate tactics like Russian soldiers riding motorcycles to advance on Ukrainian forces have been met by drones that pick riders off at will.
So it is not clear how Russia can win on the ground. Putin could try a coordinated attack from the air and land, but Ukrainian reconnaissance drones, fortified by U.S.-provided satellite intelligence, can sniff out when Russian forces are spoiling for a combined arms operation. Quick counter-strikes by Ukrainians are ordered, and the Russians suffer massive casualties before they can mass a spearhead that could win territory.
Russian Victory Is Not Coming Soon
Putin is deluding himself that he could win more ground. The Russian military is reeling from losses, and the Russian dictator will simply not recognize that he has lost momentum and the initiative. The invaders vow to keep fighting despite peace efforts.
“Russia is ready for a peaceful resolution but has enough capability to act independently and continue the special military operation,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told Reuters.
What About Creating a Demilitarized Zone?
Continued operations are not likely to be successful, though. One outcome could be a ceasefire and the creation of a Korea-like demilitarized zone. Under this concept, both sides would freeze military operations, back up 10 miles, and respect a no-man’s-land between the armies. This could keep the peace for at least a block of time, during which more negotiations could take place.
The Unthinkable: A Russian Attack on a NATO Member
U.S. intelligence analysts worry that Putin could attack a NATO member like Poland or a Baltic country. It doesn’t appear Russia would have the massive forces needed to make that plan a reality, but the alliance is worried that Europe could see another front open in the war.
The United States has also considered withdrawing more troops from the continent and redeploying them to East Asia.
This result has NATO members fearing that Trump does not have the stomach for the possibility that Putin could make a feint to European countries to mask movements by his main forces in Ukraine.
Putin’s Struggle for a Firm Grip on Power
Ukraine’s drone and missile strikes have become more intense in recent weeks, and Russians on the street are increasingly blaming Putin for the new escalation. His approval ratings are still high but not at the level he enjoyed before the war. Meanwhile, Ukrainian allies are calling for more sanctions and arms that could be used against Russia.
U.S. Support Has Steeled Russian Resolve
The Kremlin is upset that the United States recently allowed Patriot air defense interceptors to be produced someday in Ukraine. The Americans are interfering in the war and prolonging the conflict, Moscow believes, and it appears that Washington doesn’t really want peace.
The Path Forward
I don’t see much that Russia could do on the ground to make a difference in the Donbas. Putin could order a call-up of new draftees, but tactics have not evolved from Soviet-style mass attacks that just result in more casualties.
However, do not expect Putin to fold his hand. NATO membership for Ukraine is anathema to Russia. Washington is helping Kyiv with war materiel. Ukraine keeps attacking energy infrastructure, which places Russia in a difficult situation in which the only way forward is to send more troops into the meatgrinder.
Expect more fighting in this quagmire. NATO is not ready to minimize its resolve. Ukraine will keep up the attacks on civilian targets, and Russia will not quit incessant strikes on Ukrainian cities. This war is ready to be prosecuted for many more weeks. Despite Trump’s optimism for peace, Putin and Zelensky see no grounds for stopping the fighting. A summer offensive is probably coming soon, and this will result in more death and destruction for Russia without a decisive end to the fighting this summer.
MORE – Putin Is Running Out of Ukraine Options
About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood
Author of now over 3,500 articles on defense issues, Brent M. Eastwood, PhD, is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: A Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare, plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for US Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former US Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.
