Putin ‘Might Not Respond’ to Ukraine’s ‘Pearl Harbor’ Drone Attack

Will Putin Respond to Ukraine’s “Spider’s Web” Drone Attack? – Over the weekend, Ukraine launched what may prove to be its most sophisticated drone strike of the war: a covert operation deep inside Russian territory that left at least 41 advanced military aircraft destroyed, including strategic bombers.

The campaign, dubbed “Operation Spider’s Web,” was reportedly in the works for more than 18 months and executed by Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU).

Ukraine’s Drone Attack Makes History…and Surely Upset Putin

According to Ukrainian officials, the drones were launched from hidden platforms inside Russian territory, including makeshift wooden sheds and modified trucks with retractable roofs. The strike successfully targeted Russian airfields in the Saratov region and elsewhere, causing what Kyiv claims to be $7 billion in damage.

Satellite imagery and videos shared on social media appear to confirm Kyiv’s claims, proving that long-range bombers like the Tu-22M3 and Tu-95, which have proven to be Russia’s most dependable and useful planes in this conflict, were indeed destroyed.

What Will Putin Do?

Under normal circumstances, an operation of this scale would prompt a quick retaliation from Moscow.

After all, Putin’s responses to other symbolic or strategic losses in the past – like the Kerch Bridge bombing or early deliveries of Western tanks to Ukraine – have ranged from missile barrages to escalating threats directed towards NATO.

This time, however, it might be different. While the Kremlin has acknowledged the strikes, it has not yet responded militarily, and Putin may well be weighing a more diplomatic or calculated response.

Will He Hesitate?

If Putin does choose to refrain from launching an immediate new strike against Ukraine, part of that hesitation will likely come from Washington.

While U.S. President Donald Trump once hinted at the possibility he would end U.S. support for Kyiv, his more recent comments suggest a change in direction. The president has warned Putin not to escalate the war further as he attempts to navigate upcoming negotiations.

Meanwhile, Trump has also been advising Kyiv to “make a deal,” encouraging President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to make concessions to bring the conflict to an end.

The silence from the White House following this weekend’s strike is fascinating. Reports have indicated that President Trump was not briefed in advance about the operation, or if the U.S. president was aware of the existence of the plan at all. With Trump’s advisors reportedly split on Ukraine policy, however, any perceived provocation at this stage could alter the balance of these discussions. This is especially true considering that Trump said he was waiting two weeks to see whether Putin would make concessions during the next round of negotiations.

For Putin, that uncertainty matters. A misstep now could provoke Trump into taking a harder line.

What Putin Is Hoping For

Despite the scale of the strike, Putin likely still sees a path to what he can sell domestically as a victory.

If he can extract concessions from Ukraine, whether territorial, diplomatic, or symbolic, he’ll be able to present the years-long war to the Russian people as a strategic success. And unlike Ukraine, Russia maintains significant wartime advantages even after the most recent strike. Russia has more manpower, greater ammunition stockpiles and domestic manufacturing capabilities, and an economy buoyed by oil exports – at least, for now.

While the Spider’s Web operation was impressive, one attack is not a campaign, and Russia is able to quickly relocate surviving aircraft and reinforce its airfields. Without sustained and repeated strikes of this caliber, Russia’s strategic posture won’t change significantly from here.

Still, Putin has reasons to worry – and President Trump is probably the biggest among them.

President Trump has the power to crater the Russian economy in a way that Biden-era sanctions couldn’t come close to achieving – and his recent meetings with leaders in the Middle East suggest that he is already close to putting economic pressure on Russia whether that’s his intended goal or not.

Trump is already in talks with Saudi Arabia and OPEC+ to increase oil production with the aim of lowering global oil prices. In response to appeals from the president, OPEC+ announced a significant production increase of 411,000 barrels per day for July 2025, marking the third consecutive monthly hike.

At this stage, despite having more resources than Ukraine, Putin knows he can only absorb so many Spider’s Web-style attacks. He also knows that a reduction in global oil prices could strain his wartime economy, which currently relies heavily on its energy and banking sectors. Between new sanctions and cheaper oil, Putin finds himself at a point where he either needs to make a deal or face major financial consequences.

Putin May Do Nothing

Putin will be watching closely to see how Trump reacts to Ukraine’s strike; however, the U.S. president may blame the Ukrainian leader for destabilizing peace efforts. If that turns out to be the case, Russia gains leverage.

However, if Trump stays quiet or signals support for the operation, Putin may be forced to hold fire.

About the Author:

Jack Buckby is a British author, counter-extremism researcher, and journalist based in New York. Reporting on the U.K., Europe, and the U.S., he works to analyze and understand left-wing and right-wing radicalization, and reports on Western governments’ approaches to the pressing issues of today. His books and research papers explore these themes and propose pragmatic solutions to our increasingly polarized society. His latest book is The Truth Teller: RFK Jr. and the Case for a Post-Partisan Presidency.

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