Key Points – Ukraine’s “Operation Spiderweb,” a daring drone attack reportedly destroying approximately 40 Russian strategic bombers deep within Russia, delivered a significant tactical victory and morale boost for Kyiv.
-However, this audacious operation, while embarrassing for Moscow, is unlikely to alter the war’s strategic trajectory or force meaningful concessions from Putin.
-Russia is expected to retaliate with intensified attacks, potentially including a tactical nuclear weapons test, and will likely further entrench its maximalist peace demands.
-The strike, though ingenious, did not involve seizing territory and may ultimately complicate upcoming peace talks without fundamentally changing Russia’s ability or will to continue the conflict.
‘Spiderweb’ Success, But Ukraine Still Losing? A Sobering Assessment
A stunningly successful Ukrainian drone attack on Russian strategic bombers has some calling the daring mission a new “Pearl Harbor.”
Operation Spiderweb was a huge win for Ukraine and an embarrassing loss for Russia. The public relations boost for Volodymyr Zelensky is enormous. It shows the Ukrainians can strike anywhere within Russia at any time.
But this unmanned attack that destroyed 40 Russian bombers is also problematic. The sad reality is that Ukraine is still losing the war to Moscow.
A ground incursion into Russia did not accompany it. There was no territory seized. Thus, it was a tactical operation and not strategic. This reminds me of the Kursk incursion last summer that had limited strategic gains and was not enough of a devastating lightning strike to end the war.
Russia fought back effectively and retook most of the territory it lost in the surprise invasion.
The strategic outcome will be the same for Operation Spiderweb. The facts on the ground have not changed, and Kyiv looks grim. Peace talks this week in Istanbul, Turkey may be cancelled or at least considered a waste of time.
Next Steps Are Not Promising
What is next?
The worst that could happen would be Russia going on high alert and testing a tactical nuclear weapon or conducting drills and exercises that would simulate a tactical nuclear strike. This escalation would freeze Ukraine and the West into inaction.
That situation would be terrible news for regional stability and world peace.
No End to the War
Ukraine and Russia will continue drone strikes in a tit for tat fashion. The war will not end anytime soon. If Ukraine was hoping that Operation Spiderweb would improve its position in peace talks, they are sadly mistaken.
Putin Will Not Give Up
Ukraine should be given credit for the audacity and technical expertise for Spiderweb. The ingenious attack will make Russia recoil, but only for a while. Putin will not let this situation force him to turn the other cheek.
Can Zelensky be seen as a master strategist? Operation Spiderweb reminds me of the German attack in the Battle of the Bulge in World War II. There was initial mass surprise and tactical advantage, but it did not create a greater Nazi victory in war that would end it in Hitler’s favor.
The same is true today. Russia will build more bombers to replace the ones lost. It will ensure that more drone strikes and glide bombs will rain down on Ukraine, and Putin will not agree to a ceasefire.
The Stalemate at the Front Will Continue
We are right back where we started. It is time for Ukraine to figure out a way to change the facts on the ground. This is still a stalemate with Kyiv slowly losing ground, and even though Ukraine will win the news cycle this week, Russia will not back down.
Ukraine could also see its wish list for the war’s conclusion be forever changed. There is no way that Russia would agree with Ukraine joining NATO.
Russia will not give up any of its seized ground. The best Kyiv could hope for would be a Korea-like armistice with a de-militarized zone – a new frozen conflict. There will be zero chance of a just and lasting peace that would restore 1991 borders.
What’s next for Zelensky? He will bask in the glow of the victory in the coming days, and the friendly forces will receive a boost in morale. NATO and the United States will be glad that Ukraine can achieve battlefield wins. Then Russia will fight back with even more fury. The Russians will blame the Americans for either assisting with the attack or for not keeping the Ukrainians at bay. It will be more difficult for President Donald Trump and his negotiating team to make concrete gains in peace talks.
What Advice Does Zelensky Need to Hear?
If I were advising Zelensky, I would remind him of the repercussions of this attack. A Russian tactical nuclear weapons test would be an international event that would show that Putin will not back down. This would have a terrible effect on peace efforts.
Zelensky must be convinced there is a difference between tactical and strategic success. He must match the aerial attack with a ground offensive to take back territory. Zelensky made a cobra-like bite on the Russians, but it is not enough venom to completely slay the victim.
The military situation has not changed. Russia still has many bombers left. The fighter jet fleet is mostly intact. It can use this attack as the reasoning behind going on nuclear alert and rehearsing a tactical nuclear weapons attack. It can forever refuse to allow Ukraine into NATO, and it can claim that no land will ever be returned to Kyiv.
Ukraine is just not that much better off. The operation was successful and embarrassing for Putin. However, it was a tactical and not a decisive victory that could end the war. Russia will attack again and go on nuclear alert. The war will continue indefinitely as peace talks will likely be cancelled this week. There is just no stopping these two countries from fighting.
About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood
Brent M. Eastwood, PhD is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for U.S. Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former U.S. Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.
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