The tide just turned in the war in Ukraine, as Ukrainian drones struck the Gazprom Neft-owned Moscow Oil Refinery in the Kapotnya district of Moscow – just nine miles from the Kremlin. The strike was seen around the world when videos of a fuel storage tank lid being shot hundreds of feet into the air went viral.
The attack is representative of Ukraine’s newfound capabilities. There was a time when Kyiv was seeking both the munitions and the approval from Western leaders necessary to conduct these strikes, but now they’re happening without any involvement from supportive governments at all. Russia’s energy industry is under a major assault, with this latest refinery attack potentially knocking out major processing capacity. The refinery processed almost 12 million metric tons of crude oil in 2024 and produced approximately 2.9 million tons of gasoline and 3.2 million tons of diesel fuel.
With Russia’s energy industry – a critical lifeline of its war economy – now under attack, it raises the question: how will Putin respond now that Kyiv is not only on the defense?
This Was A Threat to Putin
Officially, Ukraine targeted an oil refinery in Moscow. Kyiv’s strategy has been to target oil infrastructure for some time now; after all, the Russian economy depends on energy, particularly during wartime and amid a major labor crisis.
But the strike was notable for other reasons. First, it was visible. The strike forced a heavy fuel tank lid hundreds of feet into the air, and both photographs and videos quickly went viral on social media. Surrounded by thick black smoke and flames, and with video footage of Russian citizens expressing visible shock also going viral, the attack was utterly embarrassing for the Kremlin.
And then there’s the simple fact that the explosion could be seen and heard from the Kremlin itself. The strike was only miles away, and the damage was visible and audible; its effects were evident in the air quality for miles around Moscow’s decision-making center. Video footage shared online showed local residents wiping soot from their windowsills and dirt from their clothing after simply walking outside. Russian authorities have reportedly insisted that air quality remains safe, but social media users appear to believe otherwise.
Reports also emerged that video footage of the strike was displayed on the stand of Ukrainian arms company Fire Point at a weapons exhibition in Paris.
Calls for Escalations Have Begun
Predictably, Russian officials have responded aggressively with threats of escalation. In recent weeks, Russian strikes have suggested a growing willingness to expend more valuable weapons to inflict extensive damage on Ukrainian cities.
Those strikes followed threats from Russian officials, including suggestions that diplomats and foreign officials living in Kyiv should leave for their own safety. Following this most recent strike, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov publicly called for those strikes to become more frequent and more extreme, insisting that there would now be “massive coordinated strikes on a regular basis.” Speaking during the Russia-ASEAN summit in Kazan, Lavrov also described Ukrainian forces as “terrorists.”
“It is no coincidence that the president announced some time ago, after another stunt by the Kyiv terrorists, that we would now carry out massive group strikes on a regular basis. Against targets whose condition directly affects the combat capability of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. This task has been set by the supreme commander-in-chief, and our armed forces are fulfilling it and will continue to fulfill it,” Lavrov said.
He also indicated that new measures were likely to come following the successful Moscow strikes.
“I believe that all the right words have been said, but I have long been convinced that words are not enough,” he added.
Putin’s Options Are Shrinking
So, how does Putin actually respond?
That’s the big question on everybody’s lips, and there’s no obvious answer – at least, in the long term. Escalation is clearly the next step, but simply launching more missiles at Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities is unlikely to fundamentally change the trajectory of the war at this stage. Ukraine has demonstrated remarkable resilience after more than four years of conflict. It remains committed to defending itself and continues to receive financial and military support from its Western partners.
That leaves Moscow in a difficult position, because if Russia wants to fundamentally alter the strategic picture of this conflict, it needs to do something more than just fire more missiles. Ukraine will intercept some, incur some damage, and simply respond. So, might it be nuclear? Possibly.
These strikes on Moscow are so utterly devastating and humiliating that they may well meet Russia’s criteria of using nuclear weapons only when its territorial integrity is threatened – but that would be an enormous escalation and one from which it could never truly come back. If Moscow were willing to cross that threshold, it likely would have done so already.
A direct confrontation with NATO seems unlikely, too. Any attack on NATO territory would trigger a crisis that could rapidly spiral into a wider European war – and that’s precisely the kind of conflict Russia never wanted to fight.
If Russia were willing or able to fight that war, it also would have done so already.
All signs, then, point to some form of concession or adjustment. But Putin has spent years stating that concession is weakness, and that he simply won’t do it. And there is his dilemma: Ukraine has proven it can strike Russia’s most valuable infrastructure, even within sight of the Kremlin.
Russia can keep threatening to retaliate, but that method no longer works.
In fact, it never worked.
About the Author: Jack Buckby
Jack Buckby is a British researcher and analyst specializing in defense and national security, based in New York. His work focuses on military capability, procurement, and strategic competition, producing and editing analysis for policy and defense audiences. He brings extensive editorial experience, with a career output spanning over 1,000 articles at 19FortyFive and National Security Journal, and has previously authored books and papers on extremism and deradicalization. The opinions expressed are the author’s own.
