Yes, Ukraine Could Really Join NATO

Key Points and Summary – Despite opposition from the Trump administration, Ukraine’s path to NATO membership is “irreversible,” according to Secretary General Mark Rutte, speaking ahead of the NATO summit in The Hague.

-While a formal invitation during the war is unlikely, historical precedent and NATO’s own rules suggest it is possible.

-A 1995 NATO study indicates that territorial disputes are a factor, but not an absolute barrier, to joining.

-This is supported by the example of West Germany, which joined the alliance in 1955 while still technically at war with and divided from East Germany. Ultimately, Ukraine’s accession depends on the political will of the member states.

How Ukraine Can Become a NATO Member

How could Ukraine, which United States President Donald Trump has made it clear he does not want to join NATO, become a member of the alliance anyway?

One factor in Ukraine’s favor is that, as several news and public policy sites reported this week, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has stated that the former Soviet republic will join at some point—despite the current US opposition.

Rutte has also stated that there was an agreement within the alliance on the need to maintain support for Ukraine in terms of military hardware, munitions, and other assistance.

“This is the reason why, I think also last year in Washington, NATO allies agreed that for Ukraine, there is an irreversible path of Ukraine to enter NATO,” Rutte told reporters ahead of today’s NATO summit meeting in The Hague. “That is still true today, and it will still be true on Thursday after this summit.”

During last year’s NATO summit in Washington, the allies had already agreed on the “irreversible” language characterizing Ukraine’s long-standing candidacy for membership. The debate on the issue among alliance members has been ongoing for two decades, and Ukraine’s backers state is an indicator that there is still support in the alliance for Kyiv’s bid for NATO membership.

Commitments at This Summit

The focal point of the 24-25 June summit has been the discussion about NATO members now being asked to allocate 5 percent of their GDP to defense spending.

However, there will also be commitments specific to supporting Ukraine in its battle against the Russian invasion, which began three years and four months ago, as of this week.

Rutte said that commitments by the alliance to deliver more air defenses to Ukraine—one of the country’s more pressing needs—that were made at last year’s Washington summit had been largely met.

However, he emphasized that more air defense hardware and additional missiles for the batteries that Ukraine already has in inventory are still needed. Overall, Rutte is requesting that NATO increase Ukraine’s air defenses by fivefold.

“We collectively have to fight back on making sure that Ukraine has what it needs with our support to take the fight concretely from step to step and make sure that they can defend Ukrainian territory,” the NATO Secretary General said.

He also reminded those watching what comes out of the summit of the continuing danger that Russia presents to all alliance members and not just Ukraine.

“The most significant and direct threat facing this alliance remains the Russian Federation,” he said. “Moscow continues to wage war against Ukraine with the support of North Korea, Iran, and China, as well as Belarus.

Ukraine’s Options Going Forward

Numerous ideas have been proposed on how Ukraine could become a member despite its ongoing conflict with Russia. One such option was advanced by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who had suggested that NATO membership could be offered to his nation once the “hot phase” of the war had come to an end.

However, some insist that no offer of membership can be extended while Ukraine remains at war.

Others also disagree with Kyiv beginning the process of ascending to membership on the basis that countries are prohibited from joining NATO until any outstanding territorial disputes are resolved.

However, this position is described as “a common misconception that’s rooted in a poor understanding of the Study on NATO Enlargement, which was published by the alliance in 1995.”

This document addresses the issue and makes clear that territorial disputes do not necessarily prevent a nation from joining the alliance. The specific section reads: “States which have ethnic disputes or external territorial disputes … must settle those disputes by peaceful means in accordance with OSCE principles.  Resolution of such disputes would be a factor in determining whether to invite a state to join the alliance.”

Fundamentally, Ukraine can join the alliance if the member states have the political will to do so. West Germany joined NATO in 1955, despite its eastern states still being occupied by Russia and governed as the German Democratic Republic (GDR).

Moreover, in 1955, Germany and the then-USSR were still officially at war. An agreement finally calling an end to the hostilities was not signed until 1990, the “2+4 Treaty.”

All of this means that Ukraine could join NATO at any time if the alliance members have the courage and unity to support this move. It is a textbook case of differentiating between “excuses” and “reasons” and deciding that there are no legitimate arguments in the latter category.

About the Author:

Reuben F. Johnson is a survivor of the February 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine and is an Expert on Foreign Military Affairs with the Fundacja im. Kazimierza Pułaskiego in Warsaw.  He has been a consultant to the Pentagon, several NATO governments, and the Australian government in the fields of defense technology and weapon systems design.  Over the past 30 years he has resided in and reported from Russia, Ukraine, Poland, Brazil, the People’s Republic of China and Australia.

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