Crimea was seized by Russia in 2014 and has been occupied by Russia ever since. Eight years later, Russia launched its wider invasion of Ukraine.
The Crimean Peninsula has remained a battleground in the war for the last four and a half years, especially in recent months.
Secretary of the Army, Hon. Dan Driscoll, fires a round from a M1A2 Abrams Tank while visiting Fort Stewart, GA., June 23, 2025. Secretary Driscoll met with Soldiers and leaders from the 3rd Infantry Division implementing transformation in contact initiatives, and had candid conversations with Soldiers about quality of life concerns to help find solutions to scale across the Army. (U.S. Army photo by Sgt. David Resnick)
Now, an op-ed in the Moscow Times looks at the state of play in Crimea and what it means for the wider war.
Journalist and Russia analyst Jason Corcoran writes that even if Ukraine isn’t able to recapture Crimea, it has nevertheless “damaged Russia’s credibility.”
A Vacation Spot No More
“This summer, none of our friends or relatives still in Russia will holiday in Crimea. Many continued doing so after Russia’s full-scale invasion, when Europe closed to Russian travelers, and President Vladimir Putin’s prized peninsula became a popular beach destination despite the occasional drone attack,” Corcoran writes.
That’s not the case now, thanks to “intensifying Ukrainian drone strikes, fuel shortages and mounting disruption.”
Per a New York Times report this week, Ukraine has been pummeled of late, as part of a strategy to cut off Crimea.
“Ukraine has opened another front in its intensifying blockade of Crimea, striking growing numbers of Russian vessels in the waters near the occupied peninsula as it tries to heap pressure on the Kremlin to end the war,” the Times said. “Kyiv is using its expanding arsenal of long-range drones to mount its largest campaign in the Sea of Azov since Moscow’s full-scale invasion in 2022. Advances in technology have only recently brought the sea, which is surrounded by Russia and Russian-occupied territory, within reach of drones piloted by Ukrainian soldiers.”
A U.S. Army M1A3 Abrams Tank from the 1-12 Cavalry Squadron, 1st Cavalry Division waiting to be guided onto a loading vehicle and secured for transport at the Port of Agadir, June 3, 2022, Agadir, Morocco. African Lion 2022 is U.S. Africa Command’s largest, premier, joint, annual exercise hosted by Morocco, Ghana, Senegal and Tunisia, June 6 – 30. More than 7,500 participants from 28 nations and NATO train together with a focus on enhancing readiness for U.S. and partner nation forces. AL22 is a joint all-domain, multi-component and multinational exercise, employing a full array of mission capabilities with the goal to strengthen interoperability among participants and set the theater for strategic access. (U.S. Army photo by PFC Donald Franklin)
A U.S. Army M1A3 Abrams tank fires a round during a live fire training exercise at Smardan Training Area, Romania, April 19, 2017. The combined exercise had U.S. and Romanian armored crewmen taking commands from a Romanian commander to prove the cohesion between units in support of Operation Atlantic Resolve, a NATO mission involving the U.S. and its European Allies and partners in a combined effort to promote regional stability and deter aggression in Europe. (U.S. Army photo by Army Pvt. Nicholas Vidro)
A Message For Putin
A goal, per the Times, is to “expose” Russian President Vladimir Putin as “unable to defend the peninsula.”
And as Corcoran, who wrote his master’s thesis about the effects of sanctions on Russia, notes in the Moscow Times op-ed, Putin has, since 2014, viewed Russia’s annexation of Crimea as “the cornerstone of his political legitimacy.”
“Krym nash” (“Crimea is ours”) became a popular slogan and a symbol that “Russia was back, defying the West and correcting a historical wrong.” This formed a prelude to the full-on invasion of Ukraine that followed.
However, recent events have started to complicate that narrative.
“Sustained Ukrainian drone strikes have disrupted fuel supplies, electricity and transport links, driving up prices and exposing Crimea’s logistical fragility,” Corcoran writes. “By late June, the queues for gasoline disappeared, but only because there was little left for ordinary motorists, as scarce fuel was diverted to emergency services, utilities and favored businesses.”
Banks, he added, have even begun to slash ATM withdrawal limits.
Crimea After 2014
Corcoran noted that Russia’s troubles in Crimea were not exactly a surprise to him.
“Crimea became an effective sandbox where Western governments tested targeted sanctions. Foreign investment dried up, international companies withdrew, and even many Russian blue-chip firms and state-owned entities treated the peninsula as commercially toxic,” he writes.
“I interviewed a dozen senior European business figures who explored opportunities in Crimea after the annexation, only to discover that sanctions had effectively rendered the peninsula an investment dead end.”
Moscow, however, has continued to absorb the cost of supporting Ukraine.
“The West saw Crimea as a battle over territory, but Ukraine saw an opportunity to exert further costs on Russia. If Kyiv can make the peninsula too costly for Moscow to defend and sustain, Putin’s greatest political triumph may become his greatest strategic liability,” Corcoran says.
Could Crimea Be “Liberated”?
Ukraine, of course, would love to recapture Ukraine. The Hill, in an op-ed last month, speculated on an “impending fall” of Crimea, which could cost Putin his regime.
That could be wishful thinking. But Corcoran states that Putin doesn’t have to lose Crimea in order to face humiliation.
Ukraine, he writes, “doesn’t necessarily have to liberate Crimea tomorrow to weaken Putin. If it can steadily increase the military and economic cost of holding the peninsula while destroying its appeal as Russia’s showcase resort, Crimea ceases to be an asset and becomes a liability. Every fuel shortage, canceled holiday and damaged depot chips away at the image Putin sold Russians in 2014.”
About the Author: Stephen Silver
Stephen Silver is an award-winning journalist, essayist, and film critic, and contributor to the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Broad Street Review, and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. For over a decade, Stephen has authored thousands of articles that focus on politics, national security, technology, and the economy. Follow him on X (formerly Twitter) at @StephenSilver, and subscribe to his Substack newsletter.
