Key Points and Summary: Russia maintains the world’s most extensive nuclear weapons inventory, estimated at 5,580 warheads, with around 1,710 deployed. A significant portion of this arsenal consists of tactical nuclear weapons, which are not subject to current arms control limitations and pose a growing threat.
-While Russia has deployed hypersonic missiles like the Kinzhal and Zircon in Ukraine, and is developing others like Avangard and Oreshnik, production is likely limited by sanctions.
-Moscow revised its nuclear doctrine in November 2024, notably lowering the threshold for nuclear use to include responses to conventional attacks threatening Russian or Belarusian sovereignty, even from non-nuclear states supported by nuclear powers.
Russia’s Nuclear Forces Remain A Force To Be Reckoned With
Russia has the world’s most extensive nuclear weapons inventory. Russia holds more nuclear warheads than any other nation at an estimated 5,580, which amounts to 47% of global stockpiles, according to data from the Federation of American Scientists (FAS).
But only an estimated 1,710 of those weapons are deployed, slightly more than the 1,670 deployed by the United States. Both nations can destroy each other several times over; however, the number of warheads is nowhere near the amount each country had during the Cold War.
At the peak of the Cold War, the Soviet Union had 40,000 nuclear warheads. The US had 30,000. However, FAS has warned that although the number of warheads continues to decline, the number of warheads deployed is rising. And many countries are upgrading their missile systems to deploy multiple warheads.
Russian Tactical Nuclear Weapons Threat Is Growing
Russia’s large arsenal of 1,558 non-strategic/tactical warheads is not currently subject to any arms control limitations.
Russia’s stockpile of low-yield, or tactical, nuclear weapons incorporates small 15-to-20 kiloton bombs (roughly the same size as the Hiroshima bomb) and short-range missiles with nuclear warheads. Russian artillery is even capable of delivering low-yield nuclear weapons.
“Although exact information about Russia’s and China’s warhead numbers remains unavailable, Russia’s conventional weakness is reflected in the fact that it has the world’s largest inventory of Tactical Nuclear Weapons (TNWs),” according to the US Naval Institute.
One estimate claims that Moscow has approximately 2,000 deployable tactical nuclear warheads assigned for delivery, and a WikiLeaks report asserted that Russia might possess as many as 3,000–5,000 TNWs.
“In nearly all of the nuclear-armed states, there are either plans or a significant push to increase nuclear forces,” Hans M. Kristensen, Director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists (FAS), said in June last year.
New Hypersonic Missiles Are In Short Supply But Are A Huge Threat
The Russian military has deployed hypersonic missiles during the war in Ukraine but doesn’t have enough of them for a large-scale conflict with NATO or the US.
This is likely true, especially of hypersonic weapons, such as the Zircon hypersonic cruise missile and the Avangard nuclear-capable hypersonic boost-glide vehicle.
Russia fired an Oreshnik non-nuclear hypersonic ballistic missile at a target in Dnipro. Newsweek reported that the Oreshnik traveled at 8,400 miles per hour. Ukraine’s military intelligence agency said the missile carried six warheads, and each deployed six sub-munitions.
Putin has blamed what he calls “the aggressive actions of NATO countries” for Moscow testing a new intermediate-range missile in a strike on Ukraine.
However, due to economic sanctions, the Russian economy has suffered, and they haven’t been able to build many of these new hypersonic weapons.
Putin Revises Nuclear Doctrine
In November of last year, Russian President Putin approved a new nuclear doctrine for the Russian Federation. It updated and replaced the Basic Principles of State Policy in the Area of Nuclear Deterrence, which was first published in June 2020.
Although this announcement seemed to be in response to the US administration authorizing Ukraine’s use of Western-supplied long-range missiles against military targets in Russia, the main changes to Russia’s nuclear doctrine had already been outlined by Putin in a meeting of the Russian Security Council in September 2024.
Like the previous doctrine, the new document does not advocate “first use” in a nuclear scenario. Yet, it does not rule out first use in response to a conventional attack under certain circumstances either. Significantly:
-The new doctrine officially brings Belarus under the Russian nuclear umbrella.
-In changes to the previous doctrine, the use of nuclear weapons would be justified against conventional aggression that poses a critical threat to Russian/Belarusian sovereignty and/or territorial integrity, as opposed to the very “existence of the state.”
-An aggression against Russia by any non-nuclear state with the participation or support of a nuclear state would also be regarded as a joint attack on the Russian Federation.
Russian Nuclear Delivery Vehicles
Russia’s strategic nuclear delivery vehicles comprise a triad of strategic delivery systems: Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs), Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missiles (SLBMs) carried by ballistic missile submarines, and strategic bombers.
Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs):
-RS-24 Yars: A mobile ICBM with multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle (MIRV) capabilities.
-RS-20V Voyevoda (SS-18): A silo-based ICBM.
-RT-2PM2 Topol-M: A mobile ICBM.
-Avangard: A hypersonic glide vehicle system, potentially delivered by ICBMs.
-RS-28 Sarmat: A heavy ICBM.
Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missiles (SLBMs):
-RSM-50 (R-29R, SS-N-18): A SLBM.
-RSM-52 (R-39, SS-N-20): A SLBM.
-RSM-54 (R-29RM, SS-N-23): A SLBM.
-RSM-56 (Bulava): A SLBM.
Strategic Bombers:
-Tu-160 (Blackjack): A supersonic strategic bomber.
-Tu-95MS (Bear H): A strategic bomber.
How Has America and NATO Responded?
The US response has included developing counter-hypersonic technology and modernizing the US nuclear arsenal. Could these advancements reshape global deterrence, or is Russia’s nuclear hype overstated?
Russia’s nuclear arsenal remains a very significant threat to NATO and the United States. While Putin likes to threaten and rattle the nuclear saber far too often, the threat of those weapons can’t be discounted either.
About the Author:
Steve Balestrieri is a National Security Columnist. He served as a US Army Special Forces NCO and Warrant Officer. In addition to writing on defense, he covers the NFL for PatsFans.com and is a member of the Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA). His work was regularly featured in many military publications.
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