In what is a clear slap in the face to Vladimir Putin, the Ukrainians have attacked his hometown of St. Petersburg. Drones from Ukraine pounced on the city overnight on June 3, which hit some buildings and injured a handful of citizens. This was more of a symbolic strike than one that could be decisive in the war, but Putin is likely seething in frustration.
Ukraine timed the attack to cause maximum confusion in a daring raid during one of Putin’s showcase events. He was planning to hold an economic forum in St. Petersburg, and Ukraine’s strike showed that nobody is safe in Russia. Other drones struck Moscow and even hit an enemy warship.
Ukraine War Crisis: Not a Good Look for Russian Marquee Events
President of Russia Vladimir Putin at the at the BRICS+ meeting (via videoconference). Image Credit: Creative Commons.
Putin thought that his St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) would bring a collection of allies to his favorite city to plan the future of Russian financial dominance in the country’s near abroad. Thousands of people planned to attend in what some deemed the Russian equivalent of the World Economic Forum’s Davos conclave.
Sending the Russian People a Powerful Message
Ukraine placed a bet, and it paid off with the St. Petersburg strike. Kyiv has latched onto an enhanced war strategy. Use missiles and drones against key energy infrastructure to make sure ordinary Russians have pain at the gasoline pump and limits on their electricity at home. Send mass flights of munitions at symbolic targets and civilian buildings to break Russia’s will to fight and eliminate ordinary Russians to make the country pay for counterstrikes that have killed Ukrainian civilians. Some of these have been no more than nuisance and harassment attacks, but other strikes have put the fear of God in the minds of Russian citizens who are getting tired of the war.
Russia Tries to Bully Ukrainian Civilians Too
Putin has no other choice but to send his own missiles and drones deep into Ukrainian cities to kill, maim, and scare Ukrainian civilians. This war of attrition will not win the conflict, but it is certainly payback for Putin and his cronies, who are struggling to win the war.
What Is Left for Putin to Do?
The Russian dictator is running out of military options. Losses in troops and equipment are disastrous. The Russian people are waking up and realizing this conflict is unwinnable. Putin is more likely than ever before to head to the negotiating table to maintain the current battle lines and create a Korea-like demilitarized zone that could keep the peace.
Tu-22M3 Bomber from Russia. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
This has many analysts concluding that Russia has lost the war since its main objective to take Kyiv in days and the entire country in weeks has failed.
Is the Nuclear Threat Still on the Table?
Putin does have the nuclear option, however remote that may be. He has not rattled the nuclear sabers in a while. The Russians could always test a battlefield tactical nuclear weapon in Kazakhstan to show the world they mean business. He could also carry out preparations to deploy a low-yield nuclear bomb that would be a sign that Russia could do the unthinkable.
This is a plausible but unlikely outcome. Detonating a nuclear weapon, even as a test, would be a huge blow to any credibility that Russia has left. World opinion would be fervently against it, and allies like China would recommend against any nuclear activity by Putin.
Ground Offensives Are a Fool’s Errand
The Russian supreme leader’s back is to the wall. A full-scale mechanized attack with tanks and armored personnel carriers hasn’t worked in years. Enemy attack drones, anti-tank missiles, and artillery fire have removed this option from the battlefield. He could continue the incessant missile and kamikaze unmanned aerial system attacks, but this would not win the war.
Russian Special Forces and Paratroopers Are a Joke
How about a special forces attack with Spetsnaz operators and Russia’s vaunted airborne regiments deep into Ukraine to surprise the enemy and take precious ground? This option would be unwise. The Russian special operations forces have not been effective during the war. Any surprise attack would not catch the Ukrainians off guard, and they could easily eliminate the aircraft used in the airborne operation. Even if Russia could land troops in Ukrainian territory, they could not be resupplied easily and could die in a counter-attack without artillery and air support.
How about using the Russians’ best fighter jets for more aerial attacks? The Su-57 Felon is Putin’s finest airplane, and it is flying missions in support of the war, but despite its fifth-generation stealthiness, the Su-57s are only conducting stand-off missile launches from Russian airspace. The air force has never achieved air superiority, so sending airplanes over Ukrainian skies is an invitation to get them shot down.
Su-57 Felon Fighter. Image Credit: X Screenshot.
Su-57 Felon Fighter from Russia. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
Make Ukraine Run Out of Air Defense Interceptors
Russia could continue missile and drone strikes that attack Kyiv. The American air defenses on loan, such as the Patriot PAC-3 system, are running low on interceptors. Putin could take this as a sign that he could continue to attack the capital with air strikes until Ukraine could not defend itself. This is one tactic that could work, but it is unlikely to break Volodymyr Zelensky’s resolve to fight back with tit-for-tat air strikes. The war would continue with no end in sight.
Putin does not have a good hand to play. The conflict has taken too long to achieve strategic objectives. Losses have been horrific. Public opinion is turning against the dictator. No military actions seem to work. The nuclear option is not seen as a real choice. Russia’s esteemed special operations forces have been a failure. Ukraine sends missile and drone attacks at Moscow and St. Petersburg that wreck morale and embarrass Putin.
History Won’t Be Kind to Russia
Someday this war will end, and historians may just conclude that Ukraine won it by fighting back harder before the Russians could deliver a knockout blow. Putin has been disappointed and flustered, knowing that his legacy is riding on what will become a frozen conflict as his presidency is at risk. He can only hope to keep the stalemate from flipping to Ukraine’s favor. This war has been a complete failure on Russia’s part and will eventually go down as one of the most disastrous military efforts by a stronger country against a weaker one in modern military history.
About the Author: Brent M. Eastwood, PhD
Author of now over 3,500 articles on defense issues, Brent M. Eastwood, PhD, is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: A Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare, plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for US Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former US Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.
