How Long Can Russia Last in the War Against Ukraine?: The Russo-Ukrainian war is in its final stages. I predict that an extended ceasefire and peace talks will occur in about three months. Russia will not be negotiating from a position of strength, but Ukraine will. The defenders have put up a valiant fight and have decimated Russia’s best troops and military hardware. Ukraine is also winning with adroit psychological warfare. They just launched a flight of one-way drones to frightfully disrupt an economic conference in St. Petersburg, Vladimir Putin’s hometown.
This stings the Russian dictator, and further St. Petersburg strikes will create an impending sense of doom for many Russian citizens who are tiring of the war. Putin knows in his heart that the war has been a disaster, and Volodymyr Zelensky should be satisfied with his position as a military leader. Both should be willing to come to the negotiation table by the end of the summer.
A soldier from the Idaho Army National Guard, Charlie Company, 2-116th Combined Arms Battalion, 116th Cavalry Brigade Combat Team makes Idaho National Guard history with the first firing of a Javelin anti-tank missile.
In a historic moment of training for the Idaho Army National Guard, soldiers from Charlie Company, 2-116th Combined Arms Battalion, 116th Cavalry Brigade Combat Team, fired the FGM – Javelin portable anti-tank missile on Sunday while conducting a series of field training exercises scheduled for the week on the Orchard Combat Training Center ranges.
Everyone Is Sick of War
Look for more tit-for-tat drone and missile strikes from both sides, but these will not be decisive. Ordinary voters from both countries are tiring of the war, and the civilian toll, as well as the military cost, has been unfathomable for both the people in the line of fire and the international community.
Russia Lacks the Manpower for a Decisive Victory
Russia has clearly lost much blood and treasure during the war. When you have to empty out your jails for cannon fodder who die in mass attacks, it’s not a winning strategy. Putin has even tried to recruit thousands of North Korean troops to fight alongside Russian soldiers. This has just resulted in a bloodbath for Kim Jong Un and his mediocre volunteers. More forced conscription will not be popular. New tanks and weapons systems are difficult to come by, given the limits of the Russian defense industrial base.
Russia Is Down and Out
The Russian economy has suffered. The country is nearing recession levels. Energy infrastructure has been decimated. Civilians in Moscow and St. Petersburg are quaking in fear from Ukrainian missile and drone strikes. Even Putin is hiding in underground facilities, at least according to some reports, knowing that he could be killed or even overthrown.
No Russian Momentum, Surprise, or Mass
Russia has no momentum on the frontlines. The element of surprise is not possible. The Soviet-era mass armored formations that were once formed as a spearhead to pierce Ukrainian defenses have failed. Ukrainian reconnaissance drones and overhead satellite imagery, provided by the Americans, can spot any mass formations before they attack.
Russia Is Losing Territory
Russia has also lost hard-fought ground it used to control, almost 45 square miles of Ukrainian territory it once held. Russia’s generals are likely too scared to tell Putin. Putin may be surrounded by outdated maps and fearful sycophants who look at ways to surmount a final decisive attack, but there are really no good military options.
It’s Been a Bloodbath
Russia is also unable to maintain troop levels. More soldiers are lost than can be replaced without another unpopular mass mobilization. The Russian people are tired of being on a war footing. Families who have lost loved ones on the battlefield are obviously grieving, and even more could see their sons and brothers being eliminated at the front. Over 30,000 Russian troops have either died or been wounded each month.
High Energy Prices Cannot Sustain Russia
The only bright spot for Russia is that global oil prices have risen due to the Strait of Hormuz crisis. This means that the country can collect more revenue and royalties from exports. There is a problem with this financial largesse. Ukraine has destroyed significant amounts of Russian oil infrastructure, especially refineries and extraction tools. This means that even though prices have increased, Russia has trouble getting hydrocarbons to market for export.
Ukraine Has Improved Beyond All Expectations
Meanwhile, Ukraine has developed the best army in Europe. The military decided to abandon Soviet-era tactics, techniques, and procedures early on and switched to defensive artillery fires, one-way drones, and anti-tank missiles. Russia was surprised at its losses.
Ukrainian soldiers learned to innovate on the fly. They dug in, gave many soldiers a backpack drone and a Javelin anti-tank missile system, and set up multiple ambushes and kill zones for Russian tanks and armored vehicles.
Ukraine procured home-grown cruise missiles, F-16s, Abrams tanks, and Bradley Fighting Vehicles. They have certainly incurred losses to this military hardware, but it showed Russia that Ukrainian allies would lend some of the best arms systems in the world to the defending forces.
Russia Has Made Geopolitical Mistakes
Russia once had a geopolitical strategy. Putin hoped that Donald Trump would win the presidency and have less inclination to supply Ukraine with arms than his predecessor. This political outcome happened, and Trump is now sidetracked with his war in the Middle East. Vice President JD Vance has been critical of Zelensky. However, the Americans have mainly been in Ukraine’s corner. Washington has not forsaken Kyiv completely. NATO is growing and still intact. European countries are spending more on defense and still donating weapons to Ukraine.
The Diplomatic Edge Favors Ukraine
Putin’s main objective, which is to own the Donbas region permanently, will be difficult to achieve. Russia may have to withdraw from certain areas of Donetsk oblast, even though Putin has said that it is a non-starter. In fact, it is Putin who wants Ukraine out of Donetsk. The problem is that Russia is not strong enough to force Zelensky to leave the region. Therefore, Putin’s diplomatic strategy is flawed because his forces lack a military advantage.
By September, Putin will survey his options and conclude that he needs to stop the war and try his hand at negotiating. Hopefully, the U.S. war against Iran will be wrapped up then, and Trump can focus on peace in Ukraine. NATO allies can also put pressure on Putin to agree to a ceasefire.
There is no way that Russia can win the war by taking new territory. The military is back on its heels and continues to violate even the most basic and simple principles of warfare. Putin will finally see the light, and the two sides will stop fighting within three months.
About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood
Author of now over 3,500 articles on defense issues, Brent M. Eastwood, PhD, is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: A Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare, plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for US Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former US Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.
