As the war in Ukraine continues to escalate, certain voices in Russia are urging the Kremlin to use nuclear weapons against Kyiv in response to the recent drone attack.
This was reported by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who was informed that China had apparently made an appeal to the Kremlin to refrain from using nuclear weapons to end the war in Ukraine.
As Ukraine continues to strike fuel refineries, the economic pressure is mounting on the Kremlin, which is apparently looking to escalate the war even further.
While nuclear weapons have not been used thus far, a cornered Moscow could be forced to use a tactical or strategic nuclear weapon if it feels that there is no other option.
A Nuclear Attack Against Kyiv: China Intervenes
At the most recent NATO summit in Ankara, Zelensky discussed the possibility of Russia using nuclear weapons against Kyiv. “I think you heard such voices in Russian media: ‘What if we respond to Ukrainian strikes with nuclear weapons?’ And it seems to me that this was the first time China … directly responded in an ultimatum-like form — that there can be no thought whatsoever of using nuclear weapons,” he said.
Many voices in Russian media have indeed called upon the Kremlin to nuke Ukraine. Prominent businessman Konstantin Malofeyev urged Putin to use nukes after a Ukrainian drone attack hit the capital. “What more needs to happen before we truly start fighting? War means victory at any cost. Ukrainians are at war, so they are fighting with all their might. Why are we not using the nuclear weapons that our ancestors developed and stored with the full might of the nation?”
Amid reports that Russia is on the verge of escalating the war in Ukraine, China apparently formally urged Moscow not to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine.
Zelensky was informed of this at the NATO summit in Ankara, where he was told by other European leaders about China’s intervention on Moscow’s side. Chinese officials confirmed that they had relayed a message to Moscow ahead of the NATO summit.
As one of the main suppliers of Russia’s war machine, China does indeed share a stake in the war. Any nuclear threats could make China appear like an enabler and threaten China’s image internationally.
The CCP has cautioned Russia against making nuclear threats in the past and has ample reason to avoid a nuclear war, direct or otherwise.
Could Putin Resort to Nukes?
But how likely is Russia to actually launch a nuclear strike against Ukraine? Moscow has threatened to use nukes multiple times in the past four years if certain red lines are crossed. On paper, according to their own statements and doctrine, the Kremlin has enough of a casus belli to justify a nuclear retaliation.
In 2024, Russia revised its nuclear doctrine, lowering the threshold necessary for a nuclear response. The new threshold allows for a nuclear strike in response to a conventional weapons attack that creates a “critical threat” to Russia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity (annexed regions and Belarus are included).
The revised doctrine is vague enough to allow for a very liberal interpretation.
Over the course of the war, many of Moscow’s ‘red lines’ have been crossed time and again, which, on paper, give Putin enough justification for a nuclear retaliation.
In May, Russia and Belarus conducted joint nuclear military training. Although the event was not aimed at any specific third party, the implications for Kyiv were obvious.
Russia also recently transferred more nuclear weapons to Belarus, which are still technically under Moscow’s control.
Following the recent uptick in Ukrainian attacks, there has also been an increase in appeals from Russian politicians and military bloggers, urging the Kremlin to use nuclear weapons against the ‘Kyiv regime.’ Granted, these appeals are not representative of the mood in the Kremlin, but they are helpful for gauging wider trends among influential figures in Russia.
Putin himself remains confident that nuclear weapons will not need to be used in Ukraine. “There has been no need to use those (nuclear) weapons… and I hope they will not be required,” he said.
Why a Nuclear Attack Against Ukraine is Still Unlikely
While Russia’s military and economic situation has undoubtedly deteriorated in recent months, the situation is not yet critical enough to warrant a nuclear attack.
As we have written in the past, the Russian economy is still surviving despite cracks in its foundations, which have allowed the quality of life for most Russians to remain relatively normal, aside from long wait times at the gas station.
The threat to Russia’s existence is not severe enough to justify a nuclear attack and the fallout (both nuclear and political) that would precede it.
On the ground, the military situation is also not critical enough for a nuclear attack.
While Ukraine has achieved some local success and retaken some territory, Kyiv has yet to make any meaningful moves to expel the Russian Army from its territory.
Despite claims that the Russians are suffering tens of thousands of casualties every month, in reality, Russian losses have been quite tame compared to previous years of the war, and in terms of vehicle losses, it is actually the Ukrainians who are suffering heavier losses.
The Russians have also consolidated their positions around the valuable cities of Konstantiniyvka, Kupyiansk, and Lyman, which could threaten Ukraine’s last lines of defense in the Donbas.
All this to say that Russia is not yet desperate enough to launch a nuclear attack, the consequences of which would be disastrous for Moscow on a geopolitical level.
The Kremlin can make all the threats it wants, but practically speaking, a nuclear attack would be detrimental to the interests of Russia and is best left as a last resort.
Putin still has many tools at his disposal before resorting to Russia’s most devastating weapons. While there is still ample fear of a nuclear attack, the probability of the Kremlin nuking Kyiv remains low.
About the Author: Isaac Seitz
Isaac Seitz, a Defense Columnist, graduated from Patrick Henry College’s Strategic Intelligence and National Security program. He has also studied Russian at Middlebury Language Schools and has worked as an intelligence Analyst in the private sector.
