Following the recent increase in Ukrainian drone attacks against Russian oil refineries, bets are now on as to whether Vladimir Putin’s position in power will survive the war in Ukraine. Bettors on the Polymarket prediction market are investing heavily in the prospect that the Russian President will be stripped of power as early as this year. Over the past several months, Russia has indeed taken a psychological beating, with Ukrainian drones reaching further behind the front lines and causing fuel shortages throughout the country. However, is it really correct to say that this is the beginning of the end for the Putin regime, or is this more unfounded optimism from Western observers?
Is Putin on the Ropes?
Putin at ASEAN Meeting June 2026 Russian Federation Handout Photo
An anonymous bettor on the gambling site Polymarket recently wagered $400,000 that Putin will either resign or be ousted from office by the end of 2026.
The wager followed a sharp uptick in Ukrainian drone attacks against Russian fuel refineries and other energy infrastructure. Unfortunately for the anonymous bettor, the market does not seem to agree.
Currently, the odds of Putin leaving office before the year’s end are at 11%. Needless to say, Polymarket should not be taken as a serious indicator of anything. The online gambling site is notorious for market manipulation and insider trading, and any trends on the site should be taken with a grain of salt.
That said, the anonymous bettor was probably fueled by recent reports coming from pro-Ukrainian news outlets.
Drone attacks deep into Russian territory have increased dramatically in 2026, primarily targeting fuel refineries. Other missile attacks have also hit military-industrial sites that are responsible for manufacturing components for Russia’s cruise missiles. Additionally, there has been an uptick in drone strikes in Russia’s backlines in occupied Ukraine against logistical vehicles and trucks providing supplies to occupied Crimea.
Putin in December 2025 Russian Federation Handout Image
Ukrainian Attacks and the Effects on Moscow’s Power
These attacks have also seemed to bear noticeable fruit. Crimea, along with most regions in Russia, has been forced to ration fuel to its citizens as supplies have sharply decreased in recent months.
In response, the Kremlin has been forced to import usable gasoline from allied countries such as Belarus and Kazakhstan, as well as from China and India, as a short-term measure while stronger defensive measures are implemented. While Russia remains one of the primary suppliers of unrefined natural gas, the country’s supply of usable petrol has become critical due to repeated drone attacks against refineries. The economic impacts of these attacks are becoming increasingly difficult to ignore.
Discontentment among regular Russians has also increased as the consequences of Ukraine’s drone campaign have been made manifest. Unable to refuel their cars or forced to wait in long queues, more citizens have recently taken to social media to express their frustration with the current situation. Social media has also been flooded with videos of long lines at gas stations, where Russians wait desperately for any gas they can get.
This has been interpreted by many analysts as a sign that Putin’s grip on the country is finally loosening. Many prominent news outlets are making predictions that Putin is becoming increasingly isolated within the Kremlin and that his days in power are numbered.
Putin Isn’t Going Anywhere
Anyone who has been closely following the war in Ukraine, however, has heard these reports multiple times before. Since the invasion started in 2022, Western news outlets have published reports about Putin’s increasing isolation, Putin’s dire health conditions, or the possibility of an imminent coup in the Kremlin. All of these have aged like fine milk.
Just a week ago, mainstream news outlets were predicting a possible coup in Moscow after a Russian serviceman published a video publicly criticizing the Kremlin. These predictions, like all the other ones before, turned out to be blind optimism.
Most observers are unaware of Russian internal politics. If they were, it is doubtful that they would be pining for a regime change so passionately.
Even if Putin were removed from power, the war in Ukraine would not end. In fact, given the current political mood in the Kremlin, if Putin were ousted, he would likely be replaced by a militant hardliner deadset on the total destruction of Kyiv. This is not to say that Putin’s rule is preferable, but let us be realistic. A regime change in Moscow would not be in the interests of Ukraine or the West.
The reality is that a regime change in Moscow is likely to happen only on Putin’s terms, when he either resigns willingly or dies peacefully in his sleep.
For starters, a coup in the Kremlin would be extremely hard to pull off. Russia is a security state that has been fashioned to identify and isolate dissent and keep those loyal to Moscow in power. The Kremlin also employs over 300,000 Rosgvardia troops and 30,000 elite special units, all of whom are loyal to Putin.
The closest anyone ever got to forming a successful coup was Prigozhin during the PMC Wagner rebellion, and he never got close to Moscow.
Contrary to reports from Ukraine, Moscow’s grip on power is still stable, and the recent attacks, as effective as they may be, are not nearly enough to topple decades of consolidated power.
About the Author: Isaac Seitz
Isaac Seitz, a Defense Columnist, graduated from Patrick Henry College’s Strategic Intelligence and National Security program. He has also studied Russian at Middlebury Language Schools and has worked as an intelligence Analyst in the private sector.
