Warsaw, Poland – Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has written a long message on his X account detailing just how successful his military’s campaign of drone and missile strikes has been in Crimea.
His security services have provided him with reports that paint an overall picture of the situation there, which is becoming more dire by the day. Russians who relocated to the peninsula after the March 2104 invasion are now beginning to return to Mainland Russia while they still can.
T-84 Tank from the Ukraine War. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
“Our intelligence has obtained important findings regarding the situation in Crimea and in our other territories currently under Russian occupation,” he writes. Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service has obtained data indicating that the crisis with fuel, military logistics, and governance in Crimea is deepening on a virtually daily basis,” he writes.
“The Russian occupation administration quite clearly and unequivocally acknowledges its inability to resolve the problems created by our mid-range sanctions against the occupier, as well as by the implementation of our long-range sanctions plan, primarily against Russian oil refining. A similar situation is unfolding in other Russian regions as well,” he continued.
The Ukrainian President states that the relentless attacks on Russian energy, military, and administrative targets have degraded these institutions and their ability to function in the occupied territory.
Many of the attacks on Crimea are also enabled by the actions of organized Ukrainian resistance units in the region.
Ukraine: Psychology of War
But the attacks, as much as they are making the ability of the Russian military to operate in the region, are having an equal if not greater impact on the psyche of the population.
That is another one of the objectives that Ukraine’s special operations and intelligence services are doubling down on to see just how far they can go in demoralizing the population.
In this regard, the level of the Ukrainian intelligence operatives’ penetration of the Russian occupation is extensive, giving Kyiv a complete view of how Moscow evaluates the lengths it can go to before staying in Crimea becomes untenable.
“We have also obtained internal Russian documents assessing the public mood among citizens of the aggressor state. At present, the level of anxiety among Russians is already higher than it was during our Kursk operation: more than 50 percent,” Zelenskiy’s assessment concludes.
“Already, 66 percent of Russians consider their financial situation difficult. More than 80 percent of Russians believe a large-scale economic crisis in Russia is inevitable. These are absolutely clear indicators that reflect the failure of Putin’s war policy,” which is a factor that more than one analyst of the situation has stated is being downplayed – if not ignored – by Putin’s administration.
Ukraine War Map. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
Declaration of Emergency in Crimea
At 1630 hours London time on Friday, 26 June, the Russian-installed authorities in Crimea declared a state of emergency. The declaration was made following another wave of Ukrainian strikes that shut down petrol stations and prompted power cuts across the peninsula.
Sergey Aksyonov, the Moscow-appointed governor of the region, said in a post on Telegram: “A decision has been made… to sign decrees declaring a regional-level emergency situation in the Republic of Crimea and the city of Sevastopol.”
Ukraine’s drone attacks on logistics chains and oil facilities have progressively been closing down numerous activities in Crimea in recent weeks. Local authorities have responded by suspending tourism and children’s summer camps until September.
“The closing of the summer camps on the peninsula – including the famous Artek facility -is one of the decisions that is hitting the population’s confidence hard. This, along with shutting down the internet, blocking Telegram and WhatsApp, and the unavailability of petrol, is seriously souring the Russian public on the war,” said a Moscow-based analyst of the latest political trends.
“All this is causing many to now realize that what is not just a one-sided affair where we shoot at the Ukrainians and they do not have the ability – or Joe Biden does not allow them – to shoot back, as it was in the beginning. Now the Ukrainians are shooting back, and it is creating an increasing sense of panic,” he said.
On Thursday, Mr. Aksyonov said the fuel shortage, which has caused petrol stations to stop selling to civilians, was the “most difficult” situation facing Crimea, adding that the peninsula was facing a “challenging time. I cannot say exactly how long it will take, nor can I publicly disclose the specific action plan. However, we are taking action,” he stated.
Mykhailo Fedorov, the Ukrainian Defense Minister, said last week that Ukrainian forces were “isolating Crimea with drones” and added, “It looks like in the near future, Crimea will become an island.”
About the Author: Reuben F. Johnson
Reuben F. Johnson has thirty-six years of experience analyzing and reporting on foreign weapons systems, defense technologies, and international arms export policy. Johnson is the Director of Research at the Casimir Pulaski Foundation. He is also a survivor of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. He worked for years in the American defense industry as a foreign technology analyst and later as a consultant for the U.S. Department of Defense, the Departments of the Navy and Air Force, and the governments of the United Kingdom and Australia. In 2022-2023, he won two awards in a row for his defense reporting. He holds a bachelor’s degree from DePauw University and a master’s degree from Miami University in Ohio, specializing in Soviet and Russian studies. He lives in Warsaw.
