The 2022 Ukraine War: Why It Never Had to Happen
WARSAW, POLAND – In the Summer of 2020, the Ukraine war could have been avoided.
Putin in 2023. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
It would have cost peanuts compared to what has been spent since then, and will be paid in the future, standing up against Russia.
This is the message of the Belarus opposition leader, a former presidential candidate and popular political commentator, Sergei Tikhanouvskiy.
During last week’s Warsaw Security Forum (ESF), he spoke at length about the issue of how his country’s destiny is intertwined with the future of Europe and the war in Ukraine, and how more than five years ag,o Belarus could have played a role in preventing it.
Tikhanouvskiy was arrested prior to the August 2020 presidential election in Belarus due to his ability to secure the support of the population in many small cities in Belarus, making him the first candidate to do so.
He and other candidates were imprisoned before the election by the country’s strongman president, Aleksandr Lukashenko, once called the “last dictator in Europe.”
Lukashenko then declared himself the victor in the August 2020 election, which was widely regarded as fraudulent.
Tikhanouvsky was famously released from prison in June of this year after more than five years of incarceration, reportedly at the request of Lukashenko to impress US President Donald Trump.
His release followed the visit to Minsk of the US Presidential Special Envoy, Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg.
“I think in 2020 in Minsk [the capital of Belarus] there was a chance for Europe to avoid this war in Ukraine altogether,” explained Tilkhanouvsky. But when [Russian President] Putin supported the dictator, Europe did nothing, they just sympathized with Belarus”.
To demonstrate just the level of resources Moscow is willing to commit to overthrowing governments in neighboring nations, he asked the audience, “[D]o you know how much Russia spent [trying to rig] yesterdays’ elections in Moldova? The estimates are that it was about US $300 million.”
He then asked, “[D]o you know how much Poland has spent to build a fortress-like border wall with Belarus? Somewhere around $500 million, he stated. “Do you know how much it will cost EU collectively to re-arm itself over the next four years? Probably about $1 trillion,” said Tikhanouvskiy.
“And now ask me how much it would have cost to change the government in Belarus back in 2020,” he continued. “I think it would have cost no more than $50 million.”
Why The West Failed to Stop the War
The question is why, at that time, no one had a clear vision that Lukashenko was vulnerable enough to be toppled.
The streets of Minsk and other Belarus cities were full of hundreds of thousands of protestors.
The “last dictator’s” position appeared to be untenable.
The Belarus Question
One of the leaders of the Belarus opposition-in-exile, Vadim Prokopiev, spoke with National Security Journal following his friend Tikhanouvskiy’s speech.
He echoed his message of “had Europe acted to install a neutral government – one that would have never permitted Russian troops to be based on their territory and mass for an invasion of Ukraine – the war never would have happened in the first place.”
“There could have been no invasion of Ukraine without Lukashenko allowing his country to be used as a giant launchpad for the Russian army to enter Ukraine from the north out of Belarus. Just think about the millions who would still be alive, and the billions of Euros spent on this war that could have been stopped almost two years before it started,” he concluded.
Why Was No Action Taken?
So, why was nothing ever done, said Tikhanouvsky?
It is pretty simple, according to him and others who spoke to NSJ:
“Europe has never had a clear strategy for Belarus,” he said in his presentation.
The situation was ripe for a takeover, explained Tikhanouvskiy.
“The administrative apparatus of the state and all the powerful figures in the governing elite circles were ready to move over and stand on the side of the people [in the streets]. But, when Putin actively stepped forward to support Lukashenko, they all took a step back.”
“Europe did not do anything. They did not become a player in this situation. They only expressed their concern and condolences,” he recalled. “And this is the lesson we must learn.”
“The next time there is a spark in the Belarus revolutionary movement, you [Europe] must take an active role. It should not be only Putin who steps in to act,” said Tikhanouvsky.
“This failure to act was a perfect example of ‘what not to do’ in such a situation and we are all still paying for it and countless lives have also been lost,” said Prokopiev this week.
The Path to the Future
Tikhanouvsky also stated that despite the failure of both Europe and the US in 2020 to take advantage of the opportunity to change the regime in Belarus, the “eventual creation of a free Belarus is inescapable – just as the eventual change of the political regime in Moscow is. The only question now is when. The sad reality is that all indicators now are that this will not happen quickly.”
“This is not because the Belarusian people do not desire this change, it is because of the geographic disposition of the nation we cannot act without the support of our allies. So, what do we have with our allies?”
“The Americans believe they can separate Moscow from Beijing. So long as this illusion holds strong all they can do is help with the [Belarus] political prisoners. Europe, sorry for my subjectivity, cannot take any actions. It cannot realistically help Ukraine, so what can we say about Belarus? So, what everyone can do now is to help is securing the release of the 1300 political prisoners currently dying in prison.”
“Those languishing in Lukashenko’s…prisons deserve a chance to get out while they are still alive,” said Prokopiev. “It is the least the West could do to atone for their lack of acting to change the regime back in 2020.”
About the Author: Reuben F. Johnson
Reuben F. Johnson has thirty-six years of experience analyzing and reporting on foreign weapons systems, defense technologies, and international arms export policy. Johnson is the Director of Research at the Casimir Pulaski Foundation. He is also a survivor of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. He worked for years in the American defense industry as a foreign technology analyst and later as a consultant for the U.S. Department of Defense, the Departments of the Navy and Air Force, and the governments of the United Kingdom and Australia. In 2022-2023, he won two awards in a row for his defense reporting. He holds a bachelor’s degree from DePauw University and a master’s degree from Miami University in Ohio, specializing in Soviet and Russian studies. He lives in Warsaw.
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Jim
October 6, 2025 at 12:32 pm
I was intrigued by the title, it sure would have been nice to avoid the war for peanuts.
But then I read the article.
This recounting of the 2020 Belarus election is a one-sided account.
The other side of the story is that the West attempted a color revolution against Belarus.
Why? Because prior to the 2020 election, Lukashenko was carrying out what’s called vector diplomacy, having dealings with both the West and Russia at the same time, not favoring one side or the other, but getting the best deal for Belarus from whatever source provided it.
Interestingly enough, Lukashenko was viewed for many years as friendly towards the West and prickly towards Russia because he wanted to create “political space” between Russia and Belarus.
But that wasn’t good enough for the West. President George W. Bush stated, “You are either with us or against us.” That dictum has never changed since then. So, it was determined that Lukashenko wasn’t satisfactorily “with us” enough to satisfy the West’s interests.
So, in the 2020 Belarus presidential election the “color revolution squads” came out in full force in tandem with a “color revolution” candidate.” They hoped for a Minsk Maidan to happen.
The election went Lukashenko’s way, but the color revolution goons went to work to generate “astroturf” protests against the government and Lukashenko.
These were eventually dispersed and the threat of a coup subsided, and as a result, Lukashenko decided to throw his country’s lot with Russia instead of maintaining a vector diplomacy.
Likely, the attempted Minsk Maidan was done with the design of pulling Belarus to the West before any provocation against Russia.
The attempted color revolution in Belarus was likely in anticipation of forcing the issue in Ukraine such as what subsequently happened because it was thought a West-controlled Belarus would materially impact Russia’s ability to defend itself and prevent NATO expanding into Ukraine. A Bright Red Line for Russia: no NATO in Ukraine, period. Stop.
What a whitewash from the author of this article.
But that’s common from the war crowd, they’re always wanting to rewrite history to cover up their screw ups or crimes or both.
Swamplaw Yankee
October 8, 2025 at 3:29 am
The question: is it true that “no one had the clear vision” ? Especially if hundreds of thousands of protestors were in the streets?
How could that be true? Not a single person had a clear vision.
The real scary part is that the intelligence structures of each european state seems to have played NO role. zip, zero role. Not a single state party + the leader had a single intelligence person inform them of what was up in Bilarus?
Not a single Journalist in Europe was able to get front page space for a tiny article. Let alone thinking mind boggling thoughts about the brave journalist thinkers from America, Mexico and Canada.
Its like 2012-13-14. Not a single MSM from the whole world had any thought that Putin might have a LONG GAME inside Ukraine. That Putin’s NAZI-like FSB would not have its spy network well funded in ruuzzkie speaking Ukrainians to ignite on a signal. On a signal thousands of ruuzzkie speaker Ukrainians would attack pre-planned Ukrainian households. There “Lolita” package would be obtained thru “basement butchery” of their neighbours. Putin’s “Little green Groomer” military promptly invaded to trade ammo/guns/ tanks for “Lolita” packages.
The brilliant POTUS Obama used this Putin LONG GAME as an excuse to betray the WEST by being a traitor and selling out the geopolitical loss to NATO of Ukraine’s Crimean Soil, Families and Black/Azov sea jurisdictional area to the prime cold war enemy of the WEST tsarling Putin. -30-
William unknown
October 8, 2025 at 6:08 am
For me the true lesson to be learned from this war is America shouldnt meddle so much.
If we hadn’t financed coups in Georgia and the Ukraine in the early 2000s we wouldn’t be here today.
Our country decided it was smart to try to build up an anti Russia force on russias borders and use it against russia.
We wouldn’t accept that kind of meddling on our borders by others – but in our hubris we are shocked, shocked, that others don’t want to accept our meddling.
We meddle all over the world and domestically we know very little about it and can’t figure out why so much of the planet hates us.
Swamplaw Yankee
October 9, 2025 at 2:21 am
The peer reader William comes with real worth. Read it closely.
Does not the 3 level structure of the constitution protect the US citizen? What is the purpose of the executive branch; the POTUS, the White House?
Georgie has a long, long complicated multi-tribal history. Some were ancient original Christians, other tribes suddenly turned muslim. Long before the ruuzzkie commies appeared to meddle and butcher dressed in their Halloween costumes. Even the NAZI regime made it down there.
Ukraine: There was a ruuzzkie ethnic LONG GAME financed back in 2011-13 for a coup in 2014. The USA was not more than a bit player in the NAZI-like FSB LONG GAME. If the USA DNI is honest, it should reveal how the PUTIN NAZI-like FSB was funded to create well paid sleeper networks of ruzzkie speakers.
The USA still has no comprehension of the sex-slave economy of the Muscovy ruuzzkie families of 1000 years back. The whole GNP of those hundreds of nameless tsars of muscovy was based on a minimum bi-annual “HARVEST” of little Ukrainian children. The fascist tsars needed the easy flow of gold to finance their sex slave concubine palaces. What is so hard to understand? They based themselves in their more organized muslim empire neighbours to the south.
No one is asking the Yankee to memorize any names of any tsars or how many slave concubines they enslaved. -30-