Ukraine’s drone campaign against Moscow has been yielding tangible results as fuel in Russia becomes a more scarce commodity. Throughout the country, long lines have formed at local gas stations, and the government has implemented strict limits on the amount of fuel each motorist may purchase. Consequently, the mood throughout Russia has soured as Ukraine begins to take the war to Moscow.
Many regular civilians are beginning to express frustration with the Kremlin’s handling of the war, as Putin’s stability has been steadily eroding after four years of warfare.
As the war continues, the economic consequences for Moscow are likely to worsen.
Frustration Rising in Russia from Ukraine War Problems
Tu-22M3 from Russian Air Force. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
“As fuel becomes scarcer in Russia, motorists are being forced to fill their cars with lower-quality fuel to keep them running. It’s low quality,” Anatoly, a taxi driver, said to Al Jazeera, withholding his last name for security purposes. “The engine already sounds like a sick heart…The government allows a ‘temporary decrease in quality,’ but what am I to do when I need new spare parts?”
The 49-year-old driver expressed his frustration with the Kremlin, which allowed the war to spread within Russia’s borders. Anatoly’s experiences are hardly rare in Russia nowadays, as multi-hour-long queues have formed across the country.
Since the 1990s, Putin’s greatest achievement has been restoring a sense of stability to Russia. After the chaos of the immediate post-Soviet period, Putin’s comparatively strong leadership helped instill a sense of strength and stability, which in turn fostered confidence among ordinary Russians in the Kremlin.
Tu-22M Bomber from Russian Air Force. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
Now, since Ukraine has been striking oil refineries throughout the country, that sense of confidence and stability has been shaken. “We’ve been told a thousand times that [Russian President Vladimir] Putin brought stability, and instead, we see total chaos. Turns out, the emperor has no clothes,” said an anonymous civilian. Many Russian mothers fear that the state may suddenly widen its mobilization efforts and draft their sons to die on the fields of Ukraine. Many militant bloggers are demoralized and fear that Ukraine may have actually turned the tide of the war.
The Russians are Angry at the Kremlin, But There is a Nuance…
It is hard to accurately assess the general mood among the Russian population.
For every cherry-picked account bashing the Kremlin for the war, there are several others who blame Ukraine and the West for their current misfortunes. Indeed, many average Russians are upset with the Kremlin for how it is handling the war. Many are still upset not that Putin is fighting the war, but more so for the fact that the Kremlin is not fighting the war hard enough.
One motorist, Vlad, who waited 36 hours to refill his car in Russia’s Chita region, had some choice words to say on the matter. “I think our authorities are being far too soft. They need to respond [to Ukraine] more forcefully. Otherwise, before long, no one will take us seriously. I hope they’ll reconsider their position and realize it’s time to stop playing games and start acting seriously.”
Vlad’s position is more common than many in the West realize. Many Russians, rather than demanding an immediate end to the war in Ukraine, want the Kremlin to ramp up its war against Ukraine and are frustrated that Putin has not done enough to annihilate “the Kyiv regime.”
Of course, it is impossible to tell what percentage of Russia feels that way.
Many Russians describe themselves as “apolitical” and are naturally hesitant to discuss their feelings on the war and on Putin directly. However, there is indeed a very vocal community, mainly localized on Telegram, that is very adamant about the destruction of Ukraine.
This is an unfortunate but ultimately predictable reaction to the recent wave of attacks on Russian soil. Just as Russia’s strategic attacks have hardened the hearts of many Ukrainians, so also will Ukraine’s attacks harden the hearts of many Russians.
The War Will Be Fought to its Conclusion
Despite Ukraine’s intensified drone campaign, its drone attacks do not yet reach anywhere near the scale and intensity of Russian missile/drone attacks. In the past week, Russia has launched two massive attacks against Kyiv, utilizing hundreds of attack drones and dozens of missiles of varying types.
These recent attacks, according to OSINT analysis, have targeted military industrial sites along with logistic hubs, drone assembly workshops, and energy infrastructure. Russia has also ramped up attacks against Ukrainian gas stations and related infrastructure, causing nationwide shortages, likely in response to attacks against Russian fuel refineries.
In response to the ongoing fuel shortage and Ukrainian attacks, Putin seems to be doubling down on the war in Ukraine. Despite Kyiv’s asymmetric tactics, the war has remained fundamentally unchanged. Russia still possesses the overwhelming advantage in manpower and weaponry.
Russia has a vastly larger industry than Ukraine’s, and fully halting Moscow’s war machine will take years, even at Kyiv’s increased pace.
The fact of the matter is that Russia still possesses the advantage in the war, and the constant strikes on oil refineries, impressive as they are, will not change that.
About the Author: Isaac Seitz
Isaac Seitz, a Defense Columnist, graduated from Patrick Henry College’s Strategic Intelligence and National Security program. He has also studied Russian at Middlebury Language Schools and has worked as an intelligence Analyst in the private sector.
