Putin Knows He’s Losing The War With Ukraine: Russian President Putin has publicly acknowledged for the first time that the cause of Russian citizens facing fuel shortages is due to waves of Ukrainian drone attacks deep inside the country.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has now dragged on longer than World War I and World War II, which Russia calls “The Great Patriotic War.”
Russian President Putin. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
Putin in 2021. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
But unlike Josef Stalin in WWII, Russia isn’t about to declare victory at this stage of the fighting. Putin, despite all of his rosy announcements, can see the handwriting on the wall. He can see his defeat staring him in the face.
Putin Attacked Kyiv’s Civilians Again Last Night
Putin still can’t (or won’t) differentiate between how the war is being fought. Ukraine is attacking the Russian oil and gas industries, targeting the economy, which is taking away Moscow’s ability to wage war. Civilians are not being targeted, and civilian casualties are kept to a minimum.
But since the war started in early 2014, Russia has targeted civilians and civilian infrastructure (apartment buildings, hospitals, small neighborhoods), trying to terrorize and break the will of the people.
In one of the most brazen attacks against civilians last night, an 11-hour drone and missile strike across Kyiv killed at least 21 civilians and injured nearly 90 others, severely damaging apartment blocks and an ambulance station.
Since the full-scale invasion, the UN estimates between 15,000 and 40,000 civilian casualties, with targeted bombings consistently destroying residential areas, energy grids, and medical facilities. Human rights organizations and the UN continue to document these actions as violations of international humanitarian law. Ukraine’s civilian casualties have skyrocketed by more than 31 percent in 2025.
Russia’s Defense Ministry said in a statement that the bombardment was in response to Ukraine’s recent barrage of long-range strikes against Russian gas and oil industries.
Putin Attacked Civilians In Syria As Well
The Telegraph’s post was written by a man, Hamish de Bretton-Gordon, who witnessed Putin’s “scorched earth” policy over 10 years in Syria, hunting for evidence of Putin’s and Assad’s war crimes. He said that it did not work there, nor will it in Ukraine.
And just like his campaign failed in Syria, the handwriting is on the wall in Crimea.
Putin on Direct Line Back in 2019. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
By targeting key infrastructure, roads, and bridges, Ukraine has successfully constrained Russia’s ability to supply the peninsula and its military presence in the south.
The economic strain, combined with a canceled tourist season and lack of basic services, has led to near-panic. Long queues of traffic have formed on routes leading out of Kerch as residents attempt to flee.
Russia’s Oil And Gas Industries Are Being Destroyed
A few weeks ago, Russia’s energy ministry stated that Ukrainian drone attacks on oil refineries and energy infrastructure are the cause of fuel shortages in Crimea and parts of southern Russia.
The Moscow Times reported that the country’s energy ministry said fuel and energy facilities have faced an increase in aerial attacks in recent months, leading to disruptions in fuel resupply.
“Recently, fuel and energy sector enterprises have faced an uptick in enemy aerial attacks, leading to temporary difficulties with fuel supplies in several southern regions,” the Energy Ministry said in a released statement.
Russia has been forced to stop exporting oil, gas, and diesel and has had to import fuel, most recently from India. Russia’s huge oil and gas industries have traditionally funded Russia’s military and Putin’s military. The economy and Russia’s military are now feeling the pinch of fuel shortages.
The Moscow-installed Crimean governor has declared a state of emergency after fuel shortages and power outages hit Sevastopol. The Crimea was considered Russia’s jewel, but now this state of emergency is an admission that it can’t defend or protect it.
Fuel shortages, soaring prices, and growing economic uncertainty are bringing the reality of the war home to a population largely shielded from its costs.
Putin Claims Energy Shortage, “Not Of A Critical Nature”
Putin, however, continues to paint a picture that doesn’t match the reality on the ground.
Speaking on Russian state television late on Sunday, Putin acknowledged for the first time that Ukrainian attacks on energy infrastructure were the cause of domestic fuel shortages. “Of course, they create problems; that’s obvious,” Putin said. “Right now we’re observing a certain shortage, but the problems that have arisen are not of a critical nature.”
This television appearance came on the heels of a meeting Putin chaired with members of the energy ministry, where he discussed the fuel distribution situation and said a ban on diesel exports was under consideration.
Putin said that to ease the shortages, Russia would boost foreign fuel imports, while redoubling efforts to protect refineries from Ukrainian drone strikes and restore damaged infrastructure as quickly as possible.
Due to the increased drone attacks by Ukraine, which are growing in both intensity and success, Russia is redeploying air defense systems from frontline units to protect Moscow and its oil and gas refineries.
Mobilization On The Horizon? It Would Prove Unpopular
Russia has suffered about 1.4 million casualties thus far during the war and is losing between 30,000 and 35,000 troops per month, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
The number of losses is outpacing their ability to recruit new troops, despite Moscow offering sign-up bonuses as high as $80,000.
In the Telegraph piece, de Bretton-Gordon wrote, “The prospect of wider mobilization and forced conscription is becoming a genuine concern in Moscow.
“Russia’s elite have been content thus far to see ethnic minorities, prisoners, and contract soldiers bear the burden of the fighting. It is an entirely different proposition if their own sons and daughters are required to serve. Should Putin lose the support of Russia’s urban middle class and influential elites, his position could rapidly become untenable.”
Putin has actively avoided mass call-ups in major population centers like Moscow and St. Petersburg to prevent reputational damage around critical State Duma elections.
The first “partial mobilization” in 2022 caused widespread domestic protests and a mass exodus of hundreds of thousands of draft-eligible men.
Putin’s Choices Are To Escalate Or Negotiate (Capitulate?)
De Bretton-Gordon added that Russia and Putin are reaching the point where they can no longer sustain the losses they’ve suffered unless the situation changes dramatically; he called it a “culminating point.”
Putin now faces either further escalation or negotiation. The overnight attacks on Kyiv’s residential areas were expected, and the escalation may be needed to carry on further since Kyiv shows no signs of cracking.
Many of Putin’s hardliners on Telegram continue to demand the use of tactical nuclear weapons. But even Putin knows, despite his constant threats to use them, that the use of even a single tactical nuclear weapon would be an absolute disaster both militarily and politically.
Although Ukraine isn’t a member of NATO, where such an attack would require a response under Article 5 of the charter, it would almost certainly provoke a massive Western response, not with a nuclear response but conventionally.
NATO’s conventional military power would instead launch overwhelming conventional military responses. This could include sweeping air strikes to neutralize Russian staging points, supply chains, command posts, or the Black Sea Fleet.
Russia’s already stretched military would suffer horrendous casualties as the United States and its allies would likely authorize Ukraine to use advanced, long-range conventional weapons to strike deeply into Russian territory.
NATO would establish and enforce a no-fly zone or even place boots on the ground in western Ukraine to stabilize the country and prevent further escalation. Even stalwart Russian allies like China and India would be hard-pressed to support Moscow if Putin were to let the genie out of the bottle.
That leaves him with the bitter truth that forces him to negotiate from a position of weakness.
But a negotiated settlement, however distasteful, may be Putin’s best opportunity to preserve both his regime and his personal security.
Putin also broached the subject of renewed peace negotiations with the United States acting as a mediator between Russia and Ukraine.
In the television interview, Putin said he expects White House special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to visit Moscow after the “active phase” of the war in the Middle East has passed.
Witkoff and Kushner have traveled to Russia several times over the past year as part of U.S.-mediated talks to end the war in Ukraine.
“We are ready to continue negotiations… and discuss all the details,” Putin said in response to a question about the trajectory of U.S.-Russia relations following the G7 summit in France, where Trump called on Russia to “make a deal with Ukraine.”
President Trump could be the “X-Factor” in the negotiations. He needs to convince Putin that Washington will support Kyiv and that Moscow will receive no favors (nor should it) from the US.
Putin continues to paint a picture of everything going well, but that fallacy is becoming clear to the Russian people. He is in dire need of an exit ramp to save his reputation and his own hide.
Would he survive a complete defeat in Ukraine? It is doubtful. But it is staring him in the face. And bombing civilians isn’t going to change it.
About the Author: Steve Balestrieri
Steve Balestrieri is a National Security Columnist. He served as a US Army Special Forces NCO and Warrant Officer. In addition to writing on defense, he covers the NFL for PatsFans.com and is a member of the Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA). His work was regularly featured in many military publications.
