Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has come forward with what he calls a “Victory Plan” for winning the war his forces have been fighting for almost three years. However, the first stipulation of victory is for Ukraine to be immediately allowed into NATO. For that to happen all members of the alliance would have to agree for Ukraine’s accension before the war ends. That does not look realistic at this point.
Aerial drone image of Bradley Fighting Vehicle crews from the 1st Armor Brigade Combat Team, 3rd Infantry Division, conducting Table XII gunnery at Fort Stewart, Ga. December 7, 2016.
Zelensky spoke about his plan on October 16 in an address to members of parliament in Kyiv. This speech included one of the first public declarations of an end game and potential cessation of hostilities that the Ukrainian leader has articulated.
Could it actually work?
Bring Russia Kicking and Screaming to the Negotiation Table
“Together with our partners, we must change the circumstances so that the war ends. Regardless of what Putin wants,” Zelenskyy said. “We must all change the circumstances so that Russia is forced to peace.”
Would This Plan End the War?
Zelensky said his plan could end the conflict before the new year. His strategy to win the war includes allowing deep strikes into Russian territory. He would also continue the attacks into the Kursk region to take advantage of Ukraine’s incursion there. Zelensky wants the weapons to hit more Russian military infrastructure from long range. He wants better intelligence supplied by Western partners and additional supplies of air defense systems.
Ukraine Allies Could Partner With Ukraine to Extract Valuable Resources
One stipulation was surprising. Zelensky mentioned that “Ukraine is rich in natural resources, including critically important metals ‘worth trillions of U.S. dollars,’ such as uranium, titanium, lithium, graphite and others, according to the Associated Press.
Zelensky implied that allied countries could take part in extraction of these elements and pursue other multinational economic projects such as importing more Ukrainian foodstuffs.
There are some aspects of the victory plan that remain behind closed doors and are not publicized.
Russia Despises the Notion of Ukraine in NATO
Naturally, Russia hates the idea of Ukraine joining NATO at any time. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov rejected Zelensky’s ideas, calling the proposals an “ephemeral peace plan.”
“The only peace plan there can be is for the Kyiv regime to realize the futility of the policy it is pursuing and understand the need to sober up,” Peskov told the Voice of America.
Treaty’s Article V Stands in the Way
While many NATO members support Ukraine eventually joining NATO, a wartime ascension would be a bridge too far. The treaty includes the collective defense provision called Article 5. Any fighting with one or more NATO members against Russia means the entire membership must also go to war. Even the United States is against this eventuality. Zelensky also does not mention NATO members such as Hungary or Turkey, who would be unlikely to support Ukrainian membership in the alliance at any time.
Striking Russian targets deep in Russia is more of the same, and while they have been effective, the strikes have not made for a decisive ending to the war.
Post-war Economic Development Is a Winning Idea
The most interesting proposal is the extraction of natural resources that Zelensky described. The Ukrainian leader has seldom mentioned his country’s bountiful economic development options and comparative advantage. NATO members would be able to partner with Ukraine to profit from these resources in strategic economic partnerships. The money from this arrangement could help Ukraine rebuild after the war.
Some Members Could Vote No On Ukraine Joining NATO
However, NATO membership will be a heavy lift. Hungary has questioned supplying Ukraine with an unending supply of arms and ammunition. Hungary may also not be in favor of Ukraine joining NATO even after the war.
The DMZ Peace Plan
I favor my peace plan for ending the war described in my latest book. First, both sides would agree to a cease fire and eventually sign a Korea-like armistice after the United States freezes the donation of weapons and ammunition to Ukraine. The proviso is that there would be an arms embargo until Zelensky agrees to peace negotiations. Both countries would back up 10 to 20 miles from the current front lines and institute a demilitarized zone that would be administered by the United Nations. Ukraine would give up the land that Russia occupies in Donetsk and Luhansk, while Russia would allow Ukrainian troops to remain in the Kursk region.
Ukraine would stay neutral without NATO membership. Russia would allow inspections to make sure there were no tactical or higher-yield nuclear weapons near the de-militarized zone. This would be similar to the DMZ on the Korean peninsula, which has kept the peace for decades. Then Ukrainian allies could work together for the extraction of natural resources.
Vice Presidential candidate JD Vance has also mentioned that a DMZ would be part of a Russo-Ukrainian peace plan. If former President Donald Trump wins the election, this new administration could pursue my DMZ idea.
Zelensky’s Victory Plan Will Not Work as Advertised
Zelensky’s plan is unrealistic and overly optimistic. Russia will continue the fight if NATO allows Ukraine to become a member. Further deep strikes by Ukraine will not be decisive. No amount of intelligence or missile defense systems will change the stalemate. The only Zelensky proposal I favor is the multinational effort to work with Kyiv to extract Ukraine’s abundant natural resources.
Zelensky needs to go back to the drawing board and face facts. This war has devolved into a stalemate, and neither side is able to make an attack that would change this. It is time for a creative peace plan that would include a DMZ. Both sides would resist this departure at first, but it is necessary to stop the bloodshed that has been so costly to Ukraine and Russia.
About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood
Brent M. Eastwood, PhD, is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare, plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for U.S. Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former U.S. Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.
One-World-Order
October 17, 2024 at 3:23 am
It will NOT work. Because it is full of holes.
Full of holes like a man’s brain after it has been infected by bse & dementia.
According to reports, the Victory Plan has 5 main points and three ‘secret’ points. How could a victory plan work if it incorporates secret points.
Like if it authorizes secret use of secret tactical nuclear weapons.
Who’s going to own up when a cloud of deadly radiation billows over moscow. Who.
Biden, scholz, macron, starmer, sullivan or austin ?
Richard Crawford
October 17, 2024 at 11:08 am
A DMZ administered by the United Nations would be a failure, in my opinion. We’ve seen the UN’s failure vis-a-vis UNIFIL in Lebanon’s inability (or unwillingness) to address Hezbollah on Israel’s border. The Korean DMZ is administered by the UN in name only and is functionally secured by the US and the Republic of Korea themselves. Morally, any concession to Russia is akin to paying off a home intruder to not intrude any further than your front room.
Clifford Williams
October 17, 2024 at 4:13 pm
Zelensky needs to grow up! He allowed the west (primarily the US) to goad Russia into this war. If they told him it would be over soon they were either lying or stupid (I’m leaning on the latter). The same idiots who started an insurgency in Syria hoping it would cause the downfall of Putin, started this war in Ukraine, neither had the intended result. Russia can be patient, Ukraine and the west cannot! The US is teetering on the brink of bankruptcy, a Harris administration will put it over the edge! This is an outcome that plays right into Putin and the Chinese hands.
Remember Ukraine was one of the primary invasion paths the Nazis took to invade Russia. They will never allow Ukraine to be held by a foreign power again, ever! Let alone allow the west to control the Black Sea! (would we allow Russia, through Cuba and Venezuela, to control the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean? No!)
The only answer is a DMZ. Ukraine cannot hold and pacify those regions without brute force. The people living there DO NOT want to be under the current (corrupt) regime in Kiev!
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