It is no longer possible for Russia to publicly ignore the damage that Ukraine is inflicting on its economy and infrastructure.
After Thursday’s strikes on a major Moscow oil refinery sent a fuel tanker lid flying hundreds of feet into the air, Ukraine’s newfound confidence is now clear for the world to see.
Iskander-M. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
But not only are Ukrainian drone and missile strikes wreaking havoc on Russia’s struggling wartime economy, the sheer scale of the attacks is also causing a new problem for Russia: missile defenses.
According to a CBS News report published on June 17, citing three Ukrainian officials familiar with relevant intelligence assessments, Russia is facing significant shortages of its S-300 interceptor missiles. It means that Russia is struggling to arm one of its most crucial air defense systems at a time when Ukrainian strikes are becoming both more frequent and intense.
Russia’s Missile Shortages
The news from CBS sources that Russia’s inventory of S-300 interceptor missiles is declining is particularly bad news for Moscow.
Originally designed during the Soviet era as a surface-to-air missile system, the S-300 is still one of the most important elements of Russia’s layered air defense network. While newer systems such as the S-350, S-400, and Pantsir-S1 are included in the mix, S-300 interceptors still play an important role in protecting Russia’s vast territory. And today, Russia is defending more sites than ever – a task so overwhelming that its State Duma recently legislated to allow private institutions to engage in drone defense operations.
According to Ukrainian sources, Russia has been consuming S-300 interceptors at a rapid rate as a result of more frequent Ukrainian drone strikes. The sources also pointed to newer Ukrainian drone designs that fly faster and make it possible to target sites farther into Russian territory. According to estimates from Ukraine’s intelligence services in 2025, Russian stockpiles included more than 400 missiles for both its S-300 and S-400 air defense systems.
Ukrainian officials also told the outlet that Russia has begun modifying some S-300 systems to function as surface-to-surface weapons, rather than simply air defense systems, to assist with its plans to escalate strikes against targets inside Ukraine.
That would make S-300 systems complementary to Iskander-M ballistic missiles, Kh-101 cruise missiles, and Kinzhal hypersonic missiles.
Ukraine Is Destroying Air Defenses
Not only is the Ukrainian military more successfully targeting Russian oil facilities, but its ongoing campaign continues to take out Russian air defense systems. In other cases, Ukrainian bombardments are outpacing the systems that remain, and forcing Moscow to relocate systems depending on risk.
In early May, for example, Russia relocated numerous air defense systems from other regions to Moscow ahead of the May 9 Victory Day parade. Despite a heavy presence in the capital city, however, Ukrainian drones still successfully penetrated those layered systems on June 18 to strike Moscow’s oil refinery – the second attack in the capital city in a matter of days.
Ukrainian Strikes Reach Deeper Into Russia
Moscow has a problem. The June 18 strike on the Moscow Oil Refinery in southeastern Moscow immediately hit international headlines. The facility, only miles away from the Kremlin, processed approximately 11.6 million metric tons of crude oil in 2024 and produced roughly 2.9 million tons of gasoline and 3.2 million tons of diesel fuel.
It is one of the most important fuel-processing sites in western Russia, and Thursday’s strikes are, in fact, the second time the facility has been hit; the first occurred on June 16, when the CDU-6 unit was struck, and multiple fires broke out across the site. The latest strike took out a secondary unit within the facility that had already been relied on as a backup after strikes that had damaged other parts of the site only days earlier.
Throughout 2026, Ukrainian forces have stepped up their campaign against Russian energy infrastructure. Earlier this month, Russian authorities confirmed a fire at the Tamanneftegaz terminal in Krasnodar Krai after drone debris fell onto the facility. The Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) later claimed responsibility for the attack.
In a statement published on X, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy praised the strikes and described the attacks as a form of “long-range sanctions.”
“Last night, our long-range sanctions once again reached the Moscow region – for the second time this week, the Moscow oil refinery was hit. Targets were also struck in the Rostov region and in temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine. This is a fully justified response to Russian attacks on our cities and communities, and another important result of our warriors’ work against facilities that sustain Russia’s war machine. I thank our Defense and Security Forces of Ukraine for their coordinated efforts – the Security Service of Ukraine, the Unmanned Systems Forces, the Special Operations Forces, Defense Intelligence, and our missile brigade for their precision,” the statement reads.
Zelenskyy also used the attacks to encourage Russian President Vladimir Putin to reach an agreement to end the war, telling Russia to “take the necessary steps in diplomacy.”
And if recent intelligence assessments are correct, it appears Russia ought to consider it.
About the Author: Jack Buckby
Jack Buckby is a British researcher and analyst specializing in defense and national security, based in New York. His work focuses on military capability, procurement, and strategic competition, producing and editing analysis for policy and defense audiences. He brings extensive editorial experience, with a career output spanning over 1,000 articles at 19FortyFive and National Security Journal, and has previously authored books and papers on extremism and deradicalization.
