Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has received a separate assessment from Major General Oleh Luhovskyi, the acting head of Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service, regarding what appears to be a rising threat of Belarus’s invasion of his country.
Luhovskyi was appointed by President Volodymyr Zelensky on 4 February 2026.
Su-34 Fullback Fighter-Bomber. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
Prior to this assignment change, he was the service’s first deputy head and had served as a negotiator in international peace talks.
Luhovskyi reported on the current situation in Belarus and the developments there, which are carried out “under obvious Russian influence, to prepare for a potential expansion of aggression against Ukraine.”
“Along our state border in Belarus, the construction of road infrastructure and storage bases for ammunition, fuel, and lubricants is nearing completion. These facilities have no purpose other than a military one. These are the border directions of Kobryn–Kovel, Ivanava–Manevychi, Luninets–Sarny, Rečyca–Korosten, and Homieĺ–Chernihiv,” the two-star general reported, according to Zelenskiy.
But there are numerous experts stating that an attack from Belarus into Ukraine makes zero sense at this point, due to the deteriorating situation in Russia’s military and the small number of personnel under arms in Belarus’s own ground forces.
An Extension of the Special Military Operation
“We know that Russian documents describe this [set of preparations in Belarus] specifically in the context of the tasks of the so-called ‘SVO [Special Military Operation],’” explained the intelligence chief’s report.
The acronym SVO was the name given by Putin to the original invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
The implication is that if Belarus were to attack Ukraine now, it would be characterized in Moscow as a continuation of the original 2022 attack on Kyiv.
This would make it a follow-on to the existing Russian military operations in Ukraine rather than the widening of the war that it would be in reality.
Su-35 Fighter from Russia. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
But Belarus dictator Alyaksandr Lukashenko is viewed as not enthusiastic about any prospect of joining Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
He had even declared earlier this month that his soldiers would not be sent into Ukraine to be used as “cannon fodder” – the manner in which Russia’s army has conducted its operations.
Nonetheless, he appears to be steadily building up his country’s military capacity in case he finds himself pushed more directly into the war.
Meanwhile, senior officials in Kyiv express growing concern about Belarus’s potential involvement in the hostilities.
Ukraine has responded by reinforcing its fortifications on the northern border with Belarus, which includes constructing anti-tank ditches, concrete “dragons’ teeth” obstacles to obstruct any armored vehicles, and new areas of barbed wire. Ukrainian troops along the border also say they have noted a 20 percent increase in the number of Russian intelligence drones operating in this region since January.
Relay Stations
Last week, Zelensky said that at least four Russian relay stations had been transported to Belarus’s Brest and Homyel regions to be used to direct Russian drones to hit targets in Ukraine.
He has issued an ultimatum to Minsk, giving the Belarusian authorities a week to shut the relay stations down before Ukrainian forces begin targeting them.
Belarus is Russia’s closest ally and has allowed Russia to use Belarusian territory as a staging ground for the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
But in recent months, Lukashenko has tamped down his rhetoric against the Ukrainian President and appears prepared to improve relations with Kyiv.
In the meantime, Zelenskiy has said that “Belarus has received the necessary signals from Ukraine regarding this activity” – meaning that these relay stations must be shut down if hostilities are to be avoided.
The Ukrainian leader said he is well aware of “all other formats [by Belarus] of its collaboration with Russia in the interests of prolonging and scaling up the war.”
“Belarus knows what steps it must take for peace,” he continued. “The development of border infrastructure for aggression from Belarus must be stopped. It is the Belarusian side that must take steps toward de-escalation and peace.”
About the Author: Reuben F. Johnson
Reuben F. Johnson has thirty-six years of experience analyzing and reporting on foreign weapons systems, defense technologies, and international arms export policy. Johnson is the Director of Research at the Casimir Pulaski Foundation. He is also a survivor of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. He worked for years in the American defense industry as a foreign technology analyst and later as a consultant for the U.S. Department of Defense, the Departments of the Navy and Air Force, and the governments of the United Kingdom and Australia. In 2022-2023, he won two awards in a row for his defense reporting. He holds a bachelor’s degree from DePauw University and a master’s degree from Miami University in Ohio, with a specialization in Soviet and Russian studies. He lives in Warsaw.
