Key Points – Despite Russian President Vladimir Putin’s insistence that he is winning, Russia’s war effort in Ukraine faces a potential collapse from “war exhaustion.”
-The Russian military is nearing one million casualties (killed and wounded), suffering unsustainable equipment losses, and making only minimal territorial gains at an exorbitant human cost.
-Domestically, the Russian economy is under significant strain, with public opinion surveys showing a majority of citizens feeling the impact of inflation and increasingly prioritizing an end to the conflict.
-While Putin plays for time, these mounting internal pressures make Russia’s ability to sustain the war indefinitely increasingly questionable.
Could War Exhaustion Lead to a Russian Collapse in Ukraine?
The Russian invasion of Ukraine is well into its fourth year. It shows no sign of stopping. Russian President Putin insists that the Russian military is winning and the Ukrainian army is close to defeat. Yet, Russia has failed to achieve a single one of the objectives Putin set out to accomplish more than three years ago.
Although public opinion is muted in an autocratic society like Russia, it is clear that the majority of young men are reluctant to serve in a war linked to Russia’s survival.
The Russian economy has suffered, and 94 percent of Russian citizens reported noticing inflation in their everyday shopping, according to research conducted in January by the Kyiv-based Institute for Conflict Studies and Analysis of Russia, which conducts surveys of Russian citizens.
However, Russia must contend with the issue of war exhaustion and how it could lead to the “special military operation” collapsing.
Russian War Exhaustion is Evident and Growing
War exhaustion is a growing concern and could hurt Russia’s war effort in Ukraine. While the Russian military has been successful in maintaining its presence and achieving some minor gains, the extended conflict is taking a toll on both its military and its economy, as well as affecting the morale and willingness of the Russian public to support the “special military operation.”
Russia has been experiencing appalling losses on the battlefield, leading to depleted equipment stocks and a strain on its ability to replenish manpower, especially with the limitations of its defense industrial capacity.
The Russian military is close to suffering its one-millionth casualty. Although the Kremlin doesn’t post casualty figures or grossly underreports them, it is getting harder for the military to hide a million casualties.
In 2024, Russia took territory in Ukraine, equivalent to the size of Rhode Island. But that small area of land cost the military about 440,000 casualties. At the current rate of advance, it would take Russia more than 150 years to conquer the remaining area of Ukraine.
Efforts to recruit new troops are slowing down despite the government offering increased monetary incentives to join. The public is also opposed to another call-up of reserves.
The massive loss of tanks and armored vehicles is unsustainable. Numbers vary depending on the source, but Russia is bringing back old, obsolete Soviet stock for a reason.
Surveys show growing numbers of Russians are unwilling to fight in the war. Some 81 percent of those aged between 18 and 30 oppose another round of mobilization to feed the “meat grinder” at the front, where as many as 234,000 have been killed and hundreds of thousands wounded.
The Economy Is Far From The Rosy Reports From The Kremlin
The war has put significant pressure on the Russian economy, with experts predicting that these financial issues will likely worsen in the coming months, potentially affecting the ability to fund the war effort.
Russian citizens are afraid to voice their concerns publicly, but the answers in surveys are pretty telling. In January, 69 percent of respondents reported that their ability to buy goods and services had decreased over the past six months, while 57 percent predicted that their purchasing power would continue to decline this year.
According to the January-February 2024 IKAR survey, Putin’s main priorities should be solving financial problems and improving the economy, with the war in fifth place at 11 percent. However, by January 2025, ending the conflict was their top priority, with 68 percent of respondents wanting its successful conclusion.
Failure of Senior Leadership
The war has revealed failures in Russia’s military planning and preparedness, with some experts arguing that President Putin’s assumptions about the length and nature of the conflict were incorrect.
This has led to a reactive approach rather than proactive preparation for a protracted war, highlighting potential leadership challenges in adapting to the evolving circumstances.
Putin has consistently insisted on his outrageous demands for Ukraine and the Baltics, confident that he can outlast the West, particularly the US, and force the Ukrainians to capitulate.
Yes, Russia Could Lose the War in Ukraine
Ukrainian civilians are suffering from daily bombardments as well as drone and missile attacks, as Russia has made it a point to target civilians and civilian infrastructure.
But Ukraine’s struggle is an existential one. If they lose the war, their country and legacy are gone. If Russia loses, the country will still survive. That’s the difference in the war fatigue aspect. Ukraine will continue to resist the invasion because they have no choice.
Russia does, but thus far, have not decided to end the fighting. But the signs are there for Russian citizens to demand an end.
About the Author:
Steve Balestrieri is a National Security Columnist. He served as a US Army Special Forces NCO and Warrant Officer. In addition to writing on defense, he covers the NFL for PatsFans.com and is a member of the Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA). His work was regularly featured in many military publications.
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Usun
June 11, 2025 at 4:42 pm
So is Russia defeated in Ukraine or is Russia a credible threat to NATO? Make up your damn mind, shills.
Swamplaw Yankee
June 12, 2025 at 3:48 am
OK. The op-ed genius just does not know. He is at the race track and predicts that one of the horses will win. Yahoo!
OK, this is the USA. The inner beltway needs to focus on the WEST winning. That is, the USA supplies what the Ukraine needs: now air defence in bulk and air offence in spots.
Otherwise: The Han CCP Xi cabal will have its way with Putin’s front line. The Han CCP supplies the meat grinder front line in Putin area with unlimited resources. Hardware and human. The Xi cabal controls North Korea. The POTUS seems to have no strategy to deflect Xi from his blatant supply of resources to Putin.
The op-ed writer, to be needed, needs to tell the peer reviewers a lot more than a general blab. -30-