What Does Donald Trump’s Win Mean for U.S. Foreign Policy?

It is time to discuss what a foreign policy under President-elect Donald Trump would mean. First, there are two blazing wars to settle that have no easy answers. Next is the Taiwan question and what to do with China overall. Then we have border security. Don’t forget North Korea, which is in bed with Russia and threatening to go to war with South Korea. There is also the problem of a nuclear-equipped Iran.

What Can Be Done About Ukraine and Russia?

Let’s first discuss the war in Ukraine. Trump has pledged to end this in as little as 24 hours after becoming president. He is limited under the Logan Act that governs what kind of diplomacy he can conduct as a private citizen, so most of his relations with Russia and Ukraine will have to wait until after he is inaugurated in 2025.

A Korea-like End to the War in Ukraine

Peace in Ukraine is within reach for Trump, though. The first step is getting both sides to agree to a ceasefire and come to the negotiation table. Trump will first place a moratorium on all new military aid to Ukraine until Volodymyr Zelensky agrees to negotiate. Trump will convince Russia and Ukraine to maintain the battle lines as they are and get both sides to back up 10 miles to create a Korea-like demilitarized zone. Vice President-elect JD Vance has already discussed this DMZ idea that I have devised in my latest book.

Russia would give up land it lost in Kursk Oblast, and Ukraine would allow Russia to keep the territory it has gained in the Donbas. NATO membership for Ukraine would be off the table. Trump could forge this armistice and DMZ plan and persuade both sides that they must compromise and give up each other’s territory. The United States has leverage because it can stop aid to Ukraine until there is a cease-fire. If Russia does not cooperate, cheats on the deal, or begins new combat efforts, the Americans simply start sending military aid to Ukraine again.

Donald Trump and Peace in the Middle East

The war in Gaza and Lebanon will be even more difficult to stop. Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have an excellent relationship. Trump will be able to build on this friendship to encourage Israel, Hamas, and Hezbollah to stop fighting. This could start with a month-long humanitarian pause to allow civilians to be re-supplied with food and water. Then Trump could lead efforts to make a prisoner swap to bring all hostages home during the cease-fire, including Americans who are held against their will. A “Two State Solution” is off the table, but Trump could stop U.S. humanitarian aid to Gaza and Lebanon and cease arms supplies to Israel to have leverage over the process. If the terrorists break the cease fire, the Americans can begin supplying weapons to Israel again. If Israel breaks the ceasefire, there will be a weapons embargo. These carrots and sticks will buy time for a more comprehensive peace process that can be forged in the summer of 2025.

Pursue Regime Change in Iran

To stop Iran in its tracks, Trump could pursue a path of regime change in the Islamic Republic. The United States has suffered bad experiences with regime change in the Middle East, but this operation will not require U.S. boots on the ground. It is time to support a new government to take over in Tehran. The Ayatollah’s days are numbered. Women are rising to resist the regime. Many citizens cannot take any more abuse from the mullahs. The CIA could conduct some covert action to bring a new government-in exile to take over from the Supreme Leader when the Iranian regime fails through a political uprising. The Americans must support democracy activists and dissidents in Iran until the regime falls.

Peace Through Strength In Asia

In East Asia, the challenges are even more difficult. Taiwan must spend more on its defense. This means additional anti-ship missiles, surface-to-air missiles, tanks, artillery and multiple-launch rockets systems to repel any amphibious attacks. It is time for more combined military exercises between the United States and Taiwan. Trump will start exercises if China continues to send ships and airplanes close to Taiwan. If China refrains from these incursions, Trump can cancel the military exercises and pause arms sales. If China begins to threaten Taiwan again, the arm sales and joint drills re-commence.

A Brave New World on the Korean Peninsula

On the Korean peninsula similar types of transactional diplomacy can take place. In exchange for North Korea stopping all ballistic missile tests and nuclear weapons tests, the United States and South Korea will cancel new combined military exercises. Donald Trump could then send some rear echelon U.S. Army troops home to America who serve in support roles that are redundant. If Kim Jong Un tests a missile or detonates a nuclear device, then the combined U.S.-South Korea military drills restart.

Again, if Kim transgresses on the deal, Trump can send U.S. troops back to South Korea.

Let Allies Carry a Big Stick Against China

To counteract China in general, Donald Trump will focus on what I call the “Great Northeastern Basin of Allies” and the “Great Southeastern Basin of Allies.” The first group is Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea. These allies are incredibly valuable and will work to balance against China. An attack on one is an attack on all. Same with the Great Southeastern Basin of Allies that consists of Vietnam, Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore, New Zealand, and Australia. This group of allies could make for a Southeast Asia form of NATO with mutual defense clauses in a future treaty. This alliance system would be an outgrowth of ASEAN.

Lastly and briefly, we have border security. Look for Trump to use active duty troops to secure the southern border and even deploy CIA Special Activity Center paramilitary operators and Special Operations Forces and allow these secretive warriors to make raids into Mexico to attack cartels.

As you can see this Trump foreign policy is heavily dependent on diplomacy to end wars. Trump will choose a strong military to deter foes with the goal of not having to use American troops unless there is no other choice. Trump thus becomes the peace maker and “negotiator in chief.” This is a role that he will relish and will help him deliver his promises to stop Endless Wars and achieve peace through strength.

About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood

Brent M. Eastwood, PhD, is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for U.S. Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former U.S. Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.