Ukraine’s Drone Attack on Russia’s Bomber Fleet Won’t Win the War

Key Points – Ukraine’s recent “Operation Spiderweb” drone strikes deep into Russia, targeting strategic bomber bases, are characterized as “pure theatre” and strategically meaningless despite generating significant media attention.

-The targeted bombers (Tu-95s, Tu-22m) play a peripheral role in the current conflict, primarily launching occasional cruise missiles.

-These symbolic attacks do not alter the fundamental battlefield reality where Russian forces continue to make slow, methodical advances in key areas like Donbas, pursuing limited objectives through a war of attrition.

-Russia, worried, but undeterred by these strikes, remains focused on consolidating its gains, while Ukraine’s reliance on such actions suggests a shift towards optics over substantive military outcomes.

Drone Hits on Russian Bombers: Why It’s ‘Theatre,’ Not a Turning Point

It looked, for a moment, like a bold stroke – swarms of Ukrainian drones reaching deep into Russian territory, airfields in flames, and long-range bombers reportedly damaged or destroyed.

The name, “Operation Spiderweb,” had a cinematic flair to it. Kyiv’s information operation moved quickly, amplifying every explosion, every flicker of fire in the dark. The message was clear: Ukraine still has reach, still has nerve, still has initiative. But the truth is simpler and far less dramatic. The strikes were pure theatre – brash, attention-grabbing, and strategically meaningless. The bombers hit at Shaykovka, Engels, or wherever else aren’t relevant to the outcome of this war. And Russia, far from being shaken, continues to grind forward in the places that matter.

Let’s start with the targets. The Tu-95s and Tu-22ms – big, lumbering remnants of a bygone era—have played next to no operational role in this war. They aren’t frontline assets. They aren’t shaping the tempo or direction of Russia’s offensive.

Their use has been limited to the occasional cruise missile barrage aimed at Ukrainian infrastructure, and even those strikes have tapered off in intensity. These aircraft have been on the periphery of the fight since day one. Damaging or disabling a few of them may offer symbolic satisfaction, but it doesn’t shift the balance on the battlefield. They weren’t decisive before Spiderweb, and they won’t be missed now.

And yet, the spectacle was treated in the West as something seismic. Analysts who should know better gushed about Kyiv’s “strategic reach.” Media outlets, desperate for a fresh story, ran breathless headlines about Russian bombers burning. Social media filled in the rest, spinning shaky night footage into the next turning point in a war that’s had far too many supposed turning points already.

But turning points don’t come from symbolism. They come from control – of ground, of resources, of tempo. And on that front, Russia continues to gain the upper hand.

While Spiderweb played out on Telegram and television, Russian forces continued to advance – slowly, methodically, and without spectacle. Around Chasiv Yar, in the ruins of Avdiivka, and along the land bridge to Crimea, Moscow is doing the work that wins wars. It’s pushing lines. It’s holding ground. It’s breaking down Ukrainian defenses by weight of numbers, firepower, and time. That kind of warfare doesn’t trend on social media, but it changes maps.

Spiderweb, by contrast, didn’t move the lines one inch.

It didn’t destroy a supply hub. It didn’t force a retreat. It didn’t stop an advance. It was a show – and everyone involved knew it.

A Drone Strike Mistake? 

That doesn’t mean it was pointless. Ukraine had its reasons. Morale at home is fragile. Mobilization efforts are stalling. Support abroad is showing signs of fatigue. A dramatic strike behind enemy lines buys time, attention, and headlines. It reminds international donors that Ukraine is still in the fight. It rallies public opinion, at least temporarily. But it does not solve the underlying problem: Ukraine is losing the war of position.

What makes this even clearer is the absence of any meaningful Russian reaction. If these bombers were critical assets – if this were a serious blow – Moscow would have responded with force and fury. It didn’t. Not because it can’t, but because it doesn’t need to. The front is moving its way. The cities it wants are slowly falling under its control. The four oblasts it now claims as Russian territory are being consolidated, not contested.

What Does Putin Think About Ukraine’s Drone Attack? 

Putin doesn’t need theatrics. He doesn’t need vengeance for a few scorched wings. He needs the war to stay boring – and winnable.

And so far, it is.

This war was never about speed. It was never about flashy reversals or decisive battles. It has always been about pressure, exhaustion, and attrition. From Bakhmut to Robotyne, the pattern has been the same: grind down, push forward, consolidate. Ukraine has shown tactical agility and moments of real bravery, but it lacks the manpower and strategic depth to stop that grind. No amount of drone strikes against symbolic targets will change that.

That’s what makes Spiderweb so frustrating to watch. Not because it was aggressive – Ukraine has every right to strike military targets – but because it plays into the illusion that these kinds of attacks can change the course of the war. They can’t. Not at this stage. Not against a foe that is dug in, well-supplied, and fighting a war on terms it understands far better than most Western analysts care to admit.

Russia doesn’t need its strategic bombers to win this war. It needs its artillery, its drones, and its infantry – and it’s using them. The war is being fought, not at 30,000 feet, but at point-blank range, trench by trench, block by block. That’s where the outcome will be decided. Not in Kaluga. Not in Kursk. Not in dramatic nighttime drone footage passed around on Twitter.

And certainly not by the West’s appetite for cathartic spectacle.

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MORE – Putin Could Soon Test a Tactical Nuclear Weapon

Putin’s aims remain what they’ve always been: secure Crimea, dominate the Donbas, lock in the land corridor, and ensure that Ukraine never again becomes a NATO forward operating base. He’s not trying to conquer Lviv. He doesn’t need Kyiv to fall. He needs a buffer, a wedge, a frozen frontier. And he’s well on his way to getting it.

Every month that passes, the facts on the ground harden in his favor. Every inch gained matters more than a hundred damaged bombers. Every trench held is worth more than a million social media impressions. That’s how Russia is thinking about this war.

And unless Ukraine and its backers start thinking that way too, they’ll continue to be surprised by just how little these symbolic victories accomplish.

Ukraine Is Still in Deep Trouble

Spiderweb was clever. It was daring. It showed ingenuity, reach, and resolve. But it also revealed something more troubling – a creeping sense that Ukraine is now playing for optics, not outcomes. That it is being forced into performances because it lacks the ability to change the military reality.

That, more than anything, should give the West pause.

Because wars aren’t won by stunts. They’re won by control. And for all the fire and noise of Spiderweb, Russia still controls the war.

And that, not a few bombers in flames, is the only fact that matters.

About the Author: Dr. Andrew Latham

Andrew Latham is a non-resident fellow at Defense Priorities and a professor of international relations and political theory at Macalester College in Saint Paul, MN. You can follow him on X: @aakatham.

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