Key Points and Summary – China-linked researchers claim hypersonic air-to-air missiles could down America’s new B-21 Raider, citing Mach-6 weapons with pulse engines that climb to near-space before diving on stealth targets.
-Open sources, however, list China’s hypersonics primarily as gliders and anti-ship or ballistic systems—not operational AAMs—so any intercept depends on building a full detect-track-engage kill chain against a sixth-generation, very-low-observable bomber.
-The B-21 trades speed for stealth, sensors, and mission systems designed to defeat long-range radars and SAMs; detection does not equal interception.
-Bottom line: hypersonics raise risk, but real-world physics, signatures, electronic warfare, tactics, and surprise still decide survivability in real combat.
China’s B-21 Raider Threat in Two Words: Hypersonic Missiles?
One of the most ambitious weapons systems programs in the United States Air Force is the ongoing development of the Northrop Grumman B-21 Raider, the 6th-generation successor to the Northrop B-2 Spirit—the original “Stealth Bomber”—which made its maiden flight back in 1989.
When the Raider finally attains official operational status, it’ll inject a lot of fresh new blood (metaphorically speaking) into America’s aging strategic bomber fleet, which, besides the Spirit, consists of the Boeing B-52H Stratofortress (AKA the “BUFF”), which was last built in 1962 and the Rockwell B-1B Lancer (AKA the “Bone”), which was last built in 1988.
The B-21 would prove especially invaluable in a hypothetical future war against the People’s Republic of China (PRC). However, as the one truism goes, “The enemy gets a vote.” One of the most serious metaphorical “vote-getters” the PRC would have in that would-be Sino-US war would be its hypersonic missile capabilities. So then, could Chinese hypersonics kill the Raider?
Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF)
Assuming the sources cited in a November 28, 2023, article in Newsweek are correct, the scary answer to that question is “Yes.”
The article is titled “China’s Hypersonic Missiles Can Kill US B-21 Bomber, Researchers Say,” and it was penned by Newsweek’s designated China News Reporter, Mr. Aadil Brar, who is based in Taipei, Taiwan.
To wit: “A report by the South China Morning Post on Monday indicated that China‘s hypersonic weapons—capable of Mach 6, or six times the speed of sound, and operating on a unique trajectory—could potentially counter the sophisticated B-21, which American plane spotters saw in person for the first time this month … In a simulated war game, ‘a B-21-like stealth platform and its companion drone were both shot down by China’s air-to-air missiles, which can reach a top speed of Mach 6,’ according to The Post, the Hong Kong newspaper.”
Mr. Brar continues: “In a simulated war game, ‘a B-21-like stealth platform and its companion drone were both shot down by China’s air-to-air missiles, which can reach a top speed of Mach 6,’ according to The Post, the Hong Kong newspaper’ … China’s hypersonic missiles are built with special features to track and kill stealth aircraft. Using a new solid fuel ‘pulse engine’ that can adjust power output at will throughout the flight, the missile can first go up to near space and come down on the enemy aircraft at an extremely high speed,’ the report said, citing the research.”
PRC Hypersonic Missile Arsenal Specifics
Conspicuous by its absence from that Newsweek article are the specific type(s) of hypersonic missiles that the Chinese wargamers used to conduct their successful hypothetical shootdown of the B-21.
The B-21 Raider was unveiled to the public at a ceremony Dec. 2, 2022 in Palmdale, Calif. The B-21 will provide survivable, long-range, penetrating strike capabilities to deter aggression and strategic attacks against the United States, allies, and partners. (U.S. Air Force photo)
So then, we turn to the Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance (MDAA)—founded and chaired by Riki Ellison (whom old-school American football fans will remember as a one-time college football national championship winner with the USC Trojans and a three-time Super Bowl winner with the San Francisco 49ers)—which currently lists the following hypersonic missiles in the PRC arsenal:
-DF-ZF Hypersonic Glide Vehicle (HGV)
-DF-17 Medium-Range Ballistic Missile (MRBM)
-DF-27 Intermediate-Range Ballistic Missile (IRBM)
-YJ-21/2PZD-21 ship-killing cruise missile
What’s noteworthy here is that none of those hypersonics are designated as either air-to-air missiles [AAMs] or surface-to-air missiles (SAMs).
Now, as the proverbs go, “Necessity is the mother of invention” and “Where there’s will, there’s a way.” Presumably, Beijing’s military engineers could jerry-rig and reconfigure some samples from their current hypersonic missile arsenal for the air-to-air role.
But, as desirable as it would be in the hearts & minds of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) planners to be able to kill an American stealth bomber, using one of these hypersonics would seem to be a bit of overkill from a pragmatic standpoint (like using a sledgehammer to kill a fly).
How Fast and Invisible is the B-21?
Going strictly by the speed factor, the subsonic B-21 certainly wouldn’t be able to outrun hypersonic missiles. Though the exact max airspeed specifications for the Raider are not yet known, due to (1) its prototype status and (2) the hush-hush level of operational security (OPSEC) surrounding any 6th-generation warbird project, it’s estimated that it tops off around Mach 0.8 (613.8 mph; 987.7 km/h; 533.3 knots); for basis of comparison, the B-2 Spirit tops off at a max airspeed of Mach 0.95.
But then again, just like its B-2 ancestor, the B-21 isn’t designed for speed, but rather stealth (not to mention the ability to accurately drop ordnance on target). Now granted, back in May, China unveiled the JY-27V radar, which their media mouthpieces claimed could detect both the F-22 Raptor and the Lightning II.
However, even supposing this were true, it should be remembered that the F-22 and F-35 alike are 5th-generation stealth warplanes.
By contrast, as a 6th-generation warbird, the B-21 would presumably have far more sophisticated stealth technology. As far as this reporter is aware, there’s no indication yet that the JY-27V can also overcome that 6th-generation stealth differential.
Indeed, as then-US Secretary of Defense (SECDEF) Lloyd Austin stated during the Raider’s unveiling, “50 years of advances” had gone into the B-21’s stealth technology, and that “even the most sophisticated air defense systems will struggle to detect a B-21 in the sky.”
About the Author: Christian D. Orr, Defense Expert
Christian D. Orr is a Senior Defense Editor. He is a former Air Force Security Forces officer, Federal law enforcement officer, and private military contractor (with assignments worked in Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kosovo, Japan, Germany, and the Pentagon). Chris holds a B.A. in International Relations from the University of Southern California (USC) and an M.A. in Intelligence Studies (concentration in Terrorism Studies) from American Military University (AMU). He is also the author of the newly published book “Five Decades of a Fabulous Firearm: Celebrating the 50th Anniversary of the Beretta 92 Pistol Series.”
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