Key Points and Summary – China’s Chengdu J-36/JH-XX and Shenyang J-50/J-XDS prototypes have already flown, prompting claims that Beijing is winning the sixth-generation fighter race.
-On paper, America’s F-47 NGAD looks behind, with a contract only awarded in 2024 and first flight slated for 2028. One expert argues the gap may be misleading.
J-36 Fighter X Screenshot Image.
-Boeing and Lockheed secretly flew NGAD X-planes for hundreds of hours starting in 2019, quietly maturing key technologies.
-That shadow head start could let the F-47 close the timeline gap and even reach operational service before China’s designs, keeping the U.S. competitive in next-generation air dominance.
The Great 6th-Generation Fighter Race: Who Is Winning, America Or China?
Much like the Space Race of the Cold War, the current era Great Power (“near peer”) competition has been very much one of one-upmanship and a race to see “who got there first.”
In the race to build a 5th-generation stealth fighter jet, the United States of America definitely got there first, with the F-22 Raptor and the F-35 Lightning II (both built by Lockheed Martin’s prestigious Skunk Works division), followed by the People’s Republic of China with the Chengdu J-20 Weilong (“Mighty Dragon”), and then the Russian Federation in a distant third (a rather tarnished bronze medal here) with the Sukhoi Su-57 (NATO reporting name “Felon”).
But what about the race to build 6th-generation fighter planes? Suffice to say up front that Russia is once again lagging behind the rest of the pack, as its MiG-41 (aka “PAK DP”) program is a total mess.
Between the remaining contestants in the Gen 6 race, who is winning, the USA or the PRC?
China Appears to Be Winning
At first glance, it appears that the Gen 6 warbirds developed for the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF; Zhōngguó Rénmín Jiěfàngjūn Kōngjūn) are leading the way.
The specific fighters in question are the Chengdu Aircraft Corporation’s (CAC) J-36, AKA the JH-XX, and the Shenyang Aircraft Corporation’s (SAC) J-50, AKA the J-XD/J-XDS.
Both the J-36 and J-50 prototypes made their first officially documented flights on December 26, 2024 (which coincided with Chairman Mao’s birthday).
J-50 Fighter Image from X
J-50 Fighter from China Weibo Image
The former made its second known flight on March 17, 2025, and a third flight eight days later. As for the latter, multiple sightings occurred in September, indicating a rapid acceleration in J-50 program development.
And America Appears to Be Losing
Meanwhile, as for the USA’s entry into the Gen 6 race, the results don’t look so encouraging at first glance.
After all, the contract for the US Air Force’s F-47 Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) wasn’t even awarded until March 2024.
Indeed, a mere ten months prior to the announcement of the NGAD contract award, then-Secretary of the Air Force (SECAF) Frank Kendall had placed the program on “strategic pause” to ensure that the USAF was making the right decision for its warfighters and the nation’s security.
For a while, the future of NGAD looked bleak, until the Republican Party regained control of the White House and Senate, whereupon the Trump Administration and newly minted Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman Sen. Roger Wicker (R-MS), himself a former Air Force officer, revived the program.
J-50 Fighter from China. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
In other words, the on-paper approval to start building America’s first 6th-generation fighter took place three months after China’s 6th-generation prototypes had already taken wing.
To make matters worse, the F-47 isn’t expected to make its maiden flight until 2028, a four-year lag time (equivalent to a full US presidential term of office) compared to the JH-XX and J-XDS, both of which are projected to be fully operational by 2030.
One could hardly be blamed for thinking that the US has already lost the 6th-generation fighter race to the PRC.
But There’s More to the Story
However, in the immortal words of ESPN College GameDay’s Lee Corso, “Not so fast, my friend!”
There’s more to the 6th-generation fighter race than meets the eye, as indicated by the title of a March 23, 2025, article by Stefano D’Urso of The Aviationist: “Boeing and Lockheed Martin Each Flew an X-Plane in Preparation for NGAD.” To wit: “DARPA (Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency) has now provided details about the origins of the program with a short press release …’ Under research and development contracts with DARPA, Boeing and Lockheed Martin designed two X-planes as risk reduction for the Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) Platform,’ mentioned the press release. ‘These aircraft first flew in 2019 and 2022, logging several hundred hours each.’”
As to what sort of work the Boeing and Lockheed Martin X-planes performed, the DARPA press release quoted Chief of Staff of the Air Force (CSAF) Gen. David W. Allvin: “For the past five years, the X-planes for this aircraft have been quietly laying the foundation for the F-47 — flying hundreds of hours, testing cutting-edge concepts, and proving that we can push the envelope of technology with confidence.”
With that sort of behind-the-scenes head start, maybe, just maybe <knock on wood>, the F-47 will make up for lost time and attain actual operational status before the J-36 or J-50 do so. Stay tuned, dear readers.
About the Author: Christian D. Orr, Defense Expert
Christian D. Orr is a Senior Defense Editor. He is a former Air Force Security Forces officer, Federal law enforcement officer, and private military contractor (with assignments worked in Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kosovo, Japan, Germany, and the Pentagon). Chris holds a B.A. in International Relations from the University of Southern California (USC) and an M.A. in Intelligence Studies (concentration in Terrorism Studies) from American Military University (AMU). He is also the author of the newly published book “Five Decades of a Fabulous Firearm: Celebrating the 50th Anniversary of the Beretta 92 Pistol Series.”
More Military
Could America Have Lost the Revolutionary War?
The Marines Don’t Have Tanks Anymore
The Essex-Class Aircraft Carriers Have An Embarrassing Message for the U.S. Navy
‘New’ Mach 4 MiG-41 6th Generation Stealth Fighter Has Warning for U.S. Air Force
Boeing’s F-47 NGAD 6th Generation Stealth Fighter Is No ‘Mission Impossible’
