Key Points and Summary – Britain’s Queen Elizabeth–class carriers face a harsh reality: hypersonic and long-range anti-ship missiles have shrunk their safe operating space, and war-game “sinkings” fuel doubts about survivability.
-Critics cite gaps in layered air defense, F-35 deck integration lag, and manning shortfalls.
HMS Prince of Wales Royal Navy (Queen Elizabeth-Class Aircraft Carrier). Image Credit: Royal Navy.
-Scrapping a carrier would gut UK credibility, so the near-term fix is modernization and concept shifts: denser AAW escorts and sensors, tighter US/NATO Aegis integration, expanded electronic warfare, and a hybrid air wing that blends F-35Bs with ISR, refueling, and strike drones.
-Without sharper tactics, training, and defensive upgrades, the UK risks fielding prestige ships ill-matched to the missile era.
Is The British Royal Navy Failing at Aircraft Carrier Operations?
Naval warfare heading into the 2030s is going to devolve into a devastating kinetic “missile fight.” Anti-ship hypersonic weapons are coming online. Existing carrier-killing missiles from China are a nightmare for flat-tops.
Sometimes, even the best surface ships can become outdated even a few years after construction due to the evolving missile threat.
That appears to be what is happening to the British Royal Navy. Their expensive HMS Queen Elizabeth and HMS Prince of Wales carriers may already be outdated without ready defenses against anti-ship missiles.
The Queen Elizabeth and the Prince of Wales are not that old, having entered service in 2017 and 2019.
But will they be able to bring the fight to the enemy without being destroyed? The two carriers have not performed well during military exercises. They are often “sunk” in battle simulations.
Modern Missiles Could Kill These Carriers
China possesses the dangerous DF-17 and DF-21D carrier-killing missiles, as well as high-class radar systems that can easily spot and track carriers. The Royal Navy is uncertain about how to protect its carriers from these threats.
ATLANTIC OCEAN (Aug. 8, 2017) The Royal Navy aircraft carrier HMS Queen Elizabeth II sails in formation alongside the Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS George H.W. Bush (CVN 77) during exercise Saxon Warrior 2017, Aug. 8. Saxon Warrior is a United States and United Kingdom co-hosted carrier strike group exercise that demonstrates interoperability and capability to respond to crises and deter potential threats. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 3rd Class Tristan B. Lotz/Released)
This poses a danger to American strike groups, but the US Navy utilizes the effective Aegis Combat System, which effectively guards against enemy missiles and drones. The British do not have such an advanced protective umbrella over their carriers.
The Chinese Assassins Are Sharpening Their Knives
The DF-17 is a highly maneuverable, Mach 5-plus hypersonic weapon, and the Royal Navy doesn’t have an answer for it. The DF-21D can effectively protect the Chinese coastline as a solid-fueled, medium-range missile that can be launched from a road-mobile system.
“The Royal Navy’s ‘ability to survive’ is ‘stretched to the limit’ with a scenario eventually arising whereby a [British] carrier would be sunk,” according to the Daily Mail.
Would a British Carrier Be Scrapped?
In a July 2025 strategic defense review, the government assessed naval performance and determined that the British carriers were vulnerable to missile attacks. The ever-present defense budget cuts have some military analysts questioning whether the Queen Elizabeth or the Prince of Wales could be retired to save money and resources.
This would be anathema to the Royal Navy, but the carriers must perform better in military exercises and demonstrate that they can survive in modern naval combat.
Ukraine’s Asymmetric Defeat Of Russian Flagship Has Britain Worried
The Royal Navy remains concerned about enemy missiles. The Russian flagship Moskva, a modern frigate considered the jewel of Vladimir Putin’s navy, was sunk by Ukrainian Neptune anti-ship missiles in the Black Sea at the beginning of the war. This was a message intended for all navies worldwide. Due to Ukrainian asymmetric capabilities, the Russian Black Sea fleet has been neutralized.
The same could happen to the British Royal Navy, even though they thought that the new carriers would be difference makers in keeping the peace in the Atlantic or bringing the fight to the enemy when called upon.
The United Kingdom has no choice but to keep the carriers in service. The British have treaty obligations to NATO and must carry the flag and support the allied cause due to the threats posed by China and Russia. Indeed, the two British carriers should be a point of national pride, but some are wondering if the money sunk into the ships has been a mistake.
The Future of Carrier-Based Aircraft
The Queen Elizabeth and the Prince of Wales have also faced difficulties integrating the F-35 Lightning IIs into carrier operations.
This should be seen as a straightforward endeavor due to the F-35’s excellent interoperability with allies; however, the British have struggled to deploy the F-35s effectively, which could hinder the formation of a successful carrier wing that dominates the airspace.
Naval recruitment of personnel and retention of existing sailors have also been challenges. The military is not a top-of-mind career choice for many British citizens. They see that the United Kingdom’s defense forces are no longer what they used to be, due to budget cuts and the government’s reluctance to make the Royal Navy a priority.
Some wonder if the British Navy should focus more on unmanned craft launching from the carriers. This would be more cost-effective, but it would need some assistance from the British defense industry or investment to import the drones.
The U.S. Navy has the MQ-25 Stingray tanker drone that can refuel American carrier-borne aircraft. The Navy also uses various drones for intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance unmanned systems, such as the MQ-4C Triton and MQ-8C Fire Scout. Carrier-based combat drones are in development.
It is unclear whether the British can jump-start their own naval drone program. This would take even more resources that could be earmarked for better sailor training on the carriers.
The Royal Navy is thus at a crossroads. Retiring one of its carriers would be a significant embarrassment and compromise the country’s readiness and protection.
Instead, it is looking at making its carriers into “hybrid” vessels that can launch F-35s and new reconnaissance, refueling, and attack drones.
The British will need to develop a distinctive naval strategy that prioritizes the future of carrier warfare. The defensive systems must take into account new hypersonic missiles that could potentially sink one of its most valuable capital ships. Sailors must be recruited and trained to high standards. The Queen Elizabeth and the Prince of Wales must perform better in naval exercises.
The carriers will probably not be retired, but the media and members of parliament are wondering if the Royal Navy is working toward a better future. The complaints will only get louder as the carriers flounder in war games.
The British government must make decisions on how to improve carrier tactics, operations, and strategy so they can survive missile threats as the country heads into the 2030s. Scrapping a carrier is not the answer now, but it could become a reality in the next decade if techniques and procedures do not improve.
About the Author: Brent M. Eastwood
Brent M. Eastwood, PhD is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare, plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for US Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former US Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.
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