President Trump has met with President Putin and President Zelensky. Does this bring us any closer to an end of the war between Russia and Ukraine?
It is too early to tell, but the weekend of summits has left some intriguing hints regarding how the Ukraine war might end.
The Ukraine Summits
President Trump’s meeting with President Putin in Alaska kicked off four days of intense diplomacy. Trump had hoped to convince Putin to discuss ceasefire terms in advance of peace negotiations.
The summit did not fail, exactly, but the optics coming out of Alaska did not imply a great deal of success.
A lunch meeting was cancelled, and both sides left without any real accomplishments to point to.
By Saturday, Trump had shifted to the position that the war would continue concurrent with peace negotiations, and that Ukraine would necessarily have to give up some territory in return for peace.
At the same time, Trump officials appeared to remain committed to some form of peace deal, and the Monday summit with Zelensky proceeded as scheduled.
This meeting between President Trump and President Zelensky went much more smoothly than their first meeting. Zelensky was joined by an array of European leaders, perhaps to avoid the disaster of the April summit.
The vibes coming out of the Zelensky meeting were generally positive, certainly when compared to the awkward discomfort of the Putin meeting. European leaders (all of whom have conducted their press conferences) also seem relatively optimistic about the direction of things.
Territorial Exchanges
While details are not fully clear, the proposed transfer of territory seems likely to be the whole of the Donbass, most but not all of which is under Russian military occupation.
Ceding this territory would require a Ukrainian retreat from heavily fortified forward lines, possibly creating additional military vulnerability.
Russia has reportedly promised to cease further military operations in return for this concession. Of course, conceding the territory would make it more difficult for Ukraine to prevent further Russian advances.
Notably, the Russians do not appear to have committed to the return of Kherson, although the city lies in one of the four oblasts Russia has claimed. It would be difficult for Kyiv to make such a concession under Ukrainian constitutional law, although there may be workarounds.
Security Guarantees
Perhaps most surprising, the question of security guarantees for Ukraine have re-emerged as a potential pillar of the peace agreement.
President Trump, Secretary Rubio, and chief negotiator Steve Witkoff all discussed the possibility of establishing the kinds of security guarantees that Kyiv has long sought and that Moscow has tried to push off the table.
While details remain scarce, such guarantees would likely fall short of the Article V NATO guarantee (itself not quite automatic).
Still, they would have more teeth than the vague commitments of the Budapest Memorandum. Zelensky’s European supporters have also argued for security guarantees, although as always the details remain fuzzy.
A critical component of the security arrangement appears to be the sale of armaments, to the tune of $100 billion of weapons that would be financed by Ukraine’s European partners.
What Happens Now in the Ukraine War?
It is very difficult at this point to assess the weekend’s progress, although there are enough bright spots to allow just a bit of optimism.
From the perspective of Ukraine’s supporters, Zelensky has effectively demonstrated a commitment to ending the war, and the Trump administration appears at least willing to explore options that would bring the conflict to a satisfactory close.
Of course, if Moscow insists on continuing the war, then the war will continue, and Putin’s instincts and intentions remain difficult to assess. Nevertheless, for a conflict that has proven intractable for more than three years, any hints of peace are good news.
About the Author: Dr. Robert Farley, University of Kentucky
Dr. Robert Farley has taught security and diplomacy courses at the Patterson School since 2005. He received his BS from the University of Oregon in 1997, and his Ph. D. from the University of Washington in 2004. Dr. Farley is the author of Grounded: The Case for Abolishing the United States Air Force (University Press of Kentucky, 2014), the Battleship Book (Wildside, 2016), Patents for Power: Intellectual Property Law and the Diffusion of Military Technology (University of Chicago, 2020), and most recently Waging War with Gold: National Security and the Finance Domain Across the Ages (Lynne Rienner, 2023). He has contributed extensively to a number of journals and magazines, including the National Interest, the Diplomat: APAC, World Politics Review, and the American Prospect. Dr. Farley is also a founder and senior editor of Lawyers, Guns and Money. You can find him on X: @DrFarls.
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off-johnson
August 18, 2025 at 11:50 pm
The war, sadly, will end only after the nazis get their asse kicked and truly beaten.
The same thing happened during WW2. As the front began collapsing, Hitler steadfastly forbade withdrawal.
The result was a surefire collapse of the whole nazi defense line.
Today, the nazi leader says no giving up any ground, just exactly like adolf himself.
The entire western media and most of the western leaders completely agree as well.
No withdrawal, no surrender, just keep on fighting.
Until ww3 breaks out. This ww3 will be fought with nuclear weapons. Thanks, aloizovitch !
bish-bish
August 19, 2025 at 7:02 am
The current situation on the ground benefits fascist Ukraine greatly, in fact, enormously.
The area seized by the Russian forces so far are actually less than one fifth of the land and populated by ethnic Russians.
Should the fighting be allowed to continue unabated, the nazis will lose more ground, making it more difficult to draw a permanent separation line, or line of separation, as the entire front will be moving westward.
Then what.
Then total collapse of Nazi Ukraine !
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