Key Points – It is in the US national interest to support Israel’s June 13th strike on Iran’s nuclear program.
-Israel acted preemptively after Iran reportedly rejected a diplomatic off-ramp and accelerated its weapons-grade enrichment, creating a closing window for effective military action.
-US reticence was based on fears of derailing diplomacy and a potential quagmire, but allowing a nuclear Iran poses a greater threat, as it could feel emboldened to act with impunity.
-The US should now assist Israel by providing bunker-buster munitions to destroy hardened sites like Fordow and aid in aerial refueling and missile defense, while retaliating with overwhelming force if Iran targets any Americans.
U.S. Support for Israel in Iran is an American National Interest
On June 13, 2025, Israel launched a broad attack on the Islamic Republic of Iran to eliminate the Iranian nuclear program. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had deferred to President Donald Trump’s reticence for more than four months after their Oval Office meeting in February 2025.
Trump demanded time for a good-faith diplomatic effort; Netanyahu acceded.
But when the Islamic Republic rejected a proposal for external supply of enriched uranium that would both fuel Iran’s reactors and obviate any autonomous path to nuclear weapons development, Netanyahu ordered the attack.
There were two reasons why Netanyahu acted when he did. First, the Islamic Republic had accelerated its enrichment and nuclear weapons work; the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) did not adequately address delivery systems and previous possible military dimensions such as Iranian work on warhead design. Second, as military analysts Eric Navarro showed during the April and October 2024 attacks, Israel had damaged or destroyed early warning and anti-aircraft systems. Iran had since worked to plug those holes and rebuild that capability, and so the window Israel had to run major airstrikes against Iranian strategic targets was rapidly closing.
U.S. reticence about any Israeli attack was based on four concerns.
First, Trump, like Biden and Obama before him, wanted to strike a diplomatic deal with Iran to resolve the impasse. Obama got a Nobel Peace Prize; Biden and Trump both want one.
Second, the United States worried that Israel could not finish the job. When faced with a hornet’s nest, there are two good strategies: Leave it alone or get rid of it. An intermediate choice—lightly tapping it with a stick is by far the worst option.
Third, the U.S. did not share Israel’s concerns about the threat Iranian nuclear weapons would pose. The Islamic Republic is not suicidal, the logic goes, and therefore the supreme leader would never order a nuclear strike on Israel that would cause Iran to suffer nuclear retaliation. The problem with this belief is that Israel never disputer whether the Islamic Republic was suicidal; rather, Jerusalem’s fear is that the regime could be terminally ill.
If the regime collapses and has only 24 hours left, what then is to stop the most ideologically pure units of the Revolutionary Guards who have command, control, and custody of nuclear weapons from launching them at Israel? There is no deterrence in such a situation.
Finally, Washington worries about Iranian retaliation. The United States has thousands of troops in the regime—in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, Syria, Oman, and the United Arab Emirates, among other places—and embassies across the region. The Islamic Republic could also target Americans globally or in the home front—the State Department has not classified it the world’s greatest state sponsor of terror for nothing.
Now that Israel did attack, how should the United States react? Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s rejection of Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s proposal to allow external provision of enriched fuel meant talks were at a dead end. To allow Iran domestic enrichment was to allow it an autonomous path to a bomb. Iranian retaliation is a real concern, but a nuclear Iran might actually have made the regime’s terror threat worse, as Iranian leaders felt so secure behind their nuclear deterrent that they felt they could act with immunity. The Islamic Republic also had a long history of targeting Americans—including hundreds inside Iraq—and so the notion that they would otherwise restrain was fanciful.
It now appears, however, that Israel cannot finish the job against the regime absent U.S. support to destroy the underground Fordow complex, and perhaps with aerial refueling as Israeli fighter-jets need to refuel both on their way to Iran and as they return. Lastly, Israel seeks U.S. assistance shooting down Iranian missiles and drones.
Should the United States assist or involve itself in any way? Yes.
Helping an ally shoot down incoming rockets should be a no-brainer, a service the United States extends to any ally. To do otherwise is to show the United States is unworthy of partnership and a valueless society.
With regard to refueling and bunker busters to destroy Fordow, the Trump administration and even its MAGA fringe that opposes any action should make a cost-benefit analysis. If Iran retains its core nuclear program and rebuilds it, would that benefit U.S. interests or undermine them. A nuclear program is like a malignant tumor; it will keep growing unless completely excised.
But should the United States get otherwise involved militarily? Here, the answer is no with one big exception. If Iran targets any Americans directly or by proxy, it is essential the United States respond with overwhelming force against the units and political leaders responsible. Israel has re-established its deterrence since October 7, 2023; the United States has not.
While men like Undersecretary of Defense Elbridge Colby remain wholly and exclusively focused on Asia and remain blind to the interrelation of the threats the United States faces and the interlinkages of U.S. enemies, they do not understand that failure to show the United States will react against attacks does not make America safe; rather, it only encourages China, Russia, North Korea and others to pivot toward asymmetric and proxy attacks.
The Ukraine-Russia war will soon past its three-and-a-half-year mark. The Sudanese civil war is the world’s bloodiest, and shows no sign of concluding. Hamas will likely survive in some shape or form if its patron Iran does fall. The question Trump should ask is if he believes the United States is better off with four ongoing conflicts, or whether peace and stability would be better served with a short-term and limited military investment.
About the Author: Dr. Michael Rubin
Michael Rubin is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and director of policy analysis at the Middle East Forum. A former Pentagon official, Dr. Rubin has lived in post-revolution Iran, Yemen, and both pre- and postwar Iraq. He also spent time with the Taliban before 9/11. For more than a decade, he taught classes at sea about the Horn of Africa and Middle East conflicts, culture, and terrorism, to deployed US Navy and Marine units. Dr. Rubin is the author, coauthor, and coeditor of several books exploring diplomacy, Iranian history, Arab culture, Kurdish studies, and Shi’ite politics.
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doyle-1
June 16, 2025 at 2:41 pm
You can’t destroy something you don’t own or something that’s always beyond your reach. Even for a super duper state like Israel.
Israel can’t prevent a future iran buying or bartering for a piece of nuclear capability from a foreign power like north korea.
Will Israel start attacking north korea…in the future.
That would be complete total insanity. North korea today no longer has any more fear of US or south korea (2025).
Israel ? For pyongyang, nothing to worry about.
You can’t destroy what’s beyond your reach. No matter how goebbellian or how genghisian you are.
Doyle-2
June 16, 2025 at 9:47 pm
Hmm, Iran’s strong pro-palestinian stance has been used as a platform or excuse for Israel to decapitatively attack it today, especially its nuclear sites and nuclear scientists.
Does that logic apply to Australia too.
Canberra is expected to receive AUKUS nuclear submarines capable of launching US or UK cruise missiles in the next decade, and coupled with its strong pro-NATO stance, does it then expose itself to coming israeli-style decapitative strikes.
Israel’s casus belli for iran today is casus belli tomorrow for Australia as well.
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Doyle-3
June 17, 2025 at 2:02 am
Netanyahu basking in a moment of self-awarded glory says one of his goals is to destroy the third axis of evil.
What does he mean by that.
Did Donald trump give him some tips. Top secret tips like east Asia.
Iran, all along, has continuously received much vital supplies from east Asia, from china, from north Korea, from Hong Kong, from shenzhen (global capital of consumer electronics) and others.
Do those places constitute third axis of evil.
Come on, trump, netanyahu.
Say it out loud. They’re da 3rd axis. Hell to da third axis.
Swamplaw Yankee
June 17, 2025 at 4:36 am
The world currently has “ideologically pure units” in command of nuclear weapons in orc muscovite elite ruskie. The dog and pony show off of “REDlines” goes on indefinitely as the bear, aka US State Department, dances to the Putin word plays.
While the USA has funded their armed forces, some, like the Marine Corps, currently can be fielded.
The Rubin appeal is current and aimed at his correct audience: the inner beltway aquarium brain trust. But, again, this is a naval belly button gazing for Yankee elite only. What about the World at large?
The USA has tax funded its military and, therefore, still has arsenals. Yes, the USA can produce functional gun barrels and shells. Both spots seem to be nearly 200 years old themselves.
What about the “WEST”? What say you, Rubin? Who in the WEST actually has a 5% GNP for defence in the WEST?
The doodle dandy neighbours? let’s look.
CANADA: this large, wealthy Jewish diaspora seems so very silent in the time of need of the Jewish faithful. How many jet fighters is CANADA sending to help out? The new leader, 3T ( Third Trudeau) has outsmarted the MAGA POTUS! With a few expenditure swipes worthy of Enron, 3T has magically + promptly moved Canada’s military hardware into top shape! NOT.
Mexico: This huge population also has a Jewish Diaspora. How many jet fighters is wealthy Mexico sending to help out? Actually, how many f-35 air frames is Mexico acquiring; 200; 250? For nearly one hundred years the USA has been providing free, no-cost air protection to the free loading Mexicans. The USA tax funds air protection to the drug cartels so that these cartels can make huge cash incomes from their drug trade. The drug cartels should be good for at least 50 F-35 air frames! Perhaps Rubin can do a few articles about why the PR op-ed hacks zombie attack tiny Canada for not going bankrupt purchasing F-35 tech, while giving the long time, Mexican free loaders zero grilling and examination.
The 60 year scam is that Canada has to cough up big tax bucks for NORAD, while Mexicans do the mariachi dance that all Russian attack subs are in Hudson Bay. Not a single Putin nuclear bomb will be lunched from the south and fly north over Mexico right into the Yankee heartland.
Oh my gawd! the Mexican amigos weaseled their way out of paying for a really needed SORAD! Call the MAGA crazies and get them off their ass to investigate all this free protection given to Mexico. Hell, the Yankee has not paid off the huge amount of money owed to CANADA and NEWFOUNDLAND for laying down life and limb protecting the USA in 1939-40-41.
The SOUTH: Rubin can fly to the hot south and determine how many fighter jets that totally huge population is contributing to Israel? What about it Rubin? Give the inner beltway a knowledgeable, informed insight into what the South is tax funding in 2025 to protect the Yankee from Putin’s FSB and Han CCP Xi’s triad cells? Or, can Xi shoot a sub missile from South American waters north over Mexico right into Dallas or San Diego? The South must be all over 5% in GNP for Defense Spending.
Say Yes; Rubin! -30-
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