The Iran-Israel War Question Everyone Wants Answered

Key Points – Four days into a direct military conflict that began with Israel’s massive air assault on Iranian nuclear and military targets on June 13th, the war’s duration remains uncertain.

-While Iran has retaliated with missile and drone strikes on Israeli cities, its capabilities are seen as degraded.

-Some analysts, like Daniel B. Shapiro, believe the conflict could last for weeks as Israel is determined to fully dismantle Iran’s enrichment capabilities, potentially requiring US “bunker buster” bombs.

-Others, like David Reaboi, suggest it could end in days, arguing Iran’s missile arsenal has been overestimated now that its Hezbollah proxy is neutralized.

The Iran-Israel Conflict Could Be Over In Days Or Weeks

On Friday, June 13, Israel launched a sweeping aerial offensive using more than 200 jets to strike roughly 100 military and nuclear-related targets across Iran.

The surprise assault, launched two months after Trump warned Iran had 60 days to make meaningful progress with U.S. negotiations, reportedly killed Iran’s top military commanders, nuclear scientists, and struck key enrichment facilities at Natanz, Isfahan, Arak, and missile sites near Tabriz and Kermanshah.

Israeli officials justified the operation as necessary to halt Iran’s progress toward developing a nuclear weapon following years of failed negotiations and efforts to curb Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

Israel’s campaign inflicted substantial damage and is believed to have destroyed the above-ground facilities at the Natanz Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant (PFEP), which housed 1,700 IR-4 and IR-6 centrifuges. 

In the wake of the strikes, Iran launched retaliatory attacks involving dozens of ballistic missiles and swarms of drones targeting Israeli cities, including Tel Aviv, Haifa, Jerusalem, and Bat Yam. The counterstrike marked the first time missiles from Iran have successfully pierced Israeli airspace in such significant numbers, causing civilian casualties and some damage to critical infrastructure after straining the country’s air defense systems.

Israel has degraded Iran’s visible nuclear backbone and significantly set back its nuclear program, but has not destroyed its uranium enrichment operations entirely. Given just how precise, effective, and rapid Israel’s strikes were, however, it’s clear the Iranian regime is aware of how vulnerable those operations now are. And while the strikes continue, with both sides exchanging fire for the fourth consecutive day on Monday, June 16, Iranian officials are now calling on U.S. President Donald Trump to force a ceasefire and allow for the return to diplomacy.

“Israel must halt its aggression, and absent a total cessation of military aggression against us, our responses will continue. It takes one phone call from Washington to muzzle someone like Netanyahu. That may pave the way for a return to diplomacy,” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said on X.

It remains to be seen how Israel will respond to the call for de-escalation, though some analysts have warned that a ceasefire now would allow Iran time to regroup, mitigate, and prevent further damage to its nuclear operations.

Weeks, Not Days

Though Israel has moved fast, some analysts believe that this conflict will not be over as quickly as Tehran may hope.

According to Daniel B. Shapiro, former senior Pentagon official and now a fellow at the Atlantic Council, both Israel and Iran appear determined to press ahead for the time being.

“We’re weeks rather than days away from this ending,” Shapiro said. “Israel will keep going until, one way or another, Iran no longer retains an enrichment capability.”

Shapiro added that if Israel “leaves this unaddressed,” then its campaign will have failed.

This determination is apparent in implicit calls made by Israeli officials for the United States to provide “bunker buster” weapons. These powerful bombs are designed to penetrate hardened targets like underground military facilities, reinforced concrete structures, and nuclear bunkers.

Some experts, however, believe that Israel may forge ahead and try to replicate the effect by repeatedly using less powerful bombs in consecutive attacks on a single location. That approach, however, would take time and potentially require the deployment of special forces to raid the facility in question.

While President Trump may hold the leverage to influence whether Israel actually pursues such a plan, Israel does have experience conducting strikes like this, having destroyed an underground missile factory in Syria by planting and detonating explosives.

Though a much smaller operation, it took special forces just two hours to complete. 

Iran vs. Israel: Could It End Sooner?

Given that Iranian officials are now openly urging President Trump to intervene and force a ceasefire, there is a clear indication that Tehran is willing, if not eager, to bring the conflict to a rapid conclusion, potentially within days.

That would not guarantee a lasting end to hostilities, but it could create an opportunity for all parties to return to negotiations after years of diplomatic deadlock. Iran had long resisted compliance with the conditions it once agreed to under the Obama-era nuclear deal, and those terms were abandoned entirely when Trump withdrew the United States from the agreement.

At the same time, senior Israeli officials have cautioned that the war “won’t be over for many more days,” though whether that means less than a week or several more weeks remains unclear.

National security analyst David Reaboi, of the “Late Republic Nonsense” Substack, has argued that while it’s impossible to know how long this will take, the conflict could well be over within days as a result of Iran’s substantially diminished arsenal of ballistic and hypersonic missiles.

“Iran’s only real military threat to Israel was always its stash of ballistic and hypersonic missiles,” Reaboi told National Security Journal on Monday.

“They never thought that these weapons would be vulnerable in a one-on-one conflict with Israel, because they’d counted on their proxy Hezbollah’s cache of missiles to provide the primary line of attack. Iran’s missiles were to be the decisive factor in overwhelming Israel’s missile defense systems. Obviously, Hezbollah and their missile arsenal were eliminated—which enabled Israel to take the fight directly to Iran.”

Reaboi also pointed to Israel’s advanced air defense systems, noting that it would take as many as 100 missiles to completely overwhelm them – a problem both in terms of missile supply and coordination.

“A large 100+ missile attack requires communications coordination that no longer exists. So there might be the odd missile launch here and there for some time—but, like Houthis’ missiles, these are an annoyance rather than a serious strategic threat,” Reaboi added.

Israel, it seems, has the upper hand. The duration of the conflict now appears to hinge on whether President Trump is prepared to pressure Israel to pause its campaign and whether the Israeli government is willing to end the fight without successfully dismantling the Iranian nuclear program in its entirety.

About the Author:

Jack Buckby is a British author, counter-extremism researcher, and journalist based in New York. Reporting on the U.K., Europe, and the U.S., he works to analyze and understand left-wing and right-wing radicalization, and reports on Western governments’ approaches to the pressing issues of today. His books and research papers explore these themes and propose pragmatic solutions to our increasingly polarized society. His latest book is The Truth Teller: RFK Jr. and the Case for a Post-Partisan Presidency.

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