Has Russia Achieved a Breakthrough in Ukraine? A Top Expert Says No.
-Despite recent Russian advances into Ukraine’s Dnipropetrovsk region, a full-scale breakthrough has not occurred, and a top expert reports that “Ukraine’s lines are holding.”
Key Points
-While Russia is exploiting weak spots, it has not achieved a decisive operational collapse of Ukrainian defenses.
-This grinding battlefield reality comes as Russian President Vladimir Putin issues a stark new ultimatum from Beijing: negotiate a peace deal on his terms, or he will “resolve all the tasks before us by force of arms.”
-This threat adds a new layer of urgency to the stalled diplomatic efforts.
Has Russia found a way to “Breakthrough” in Ukraine?
On August 27, the Associated Press reported that Russia had moved into an eighth region of Ukraine, as they reached the villages of Novoheorhiivka and Zaporizke in the eastern Dnipropetrovsk region.
However, Victor Trehubov, a spokesperson for the forces there, told the AP that the Russians had not “entrenched or built fortifications there.”
Earlier in August, per NBC News, Russia pushed further into Ukraine’s Donetsk region, into what NBC called “two narrow, 10-mile prongs near the battlefield hot spot town of Pokrovsk.” The NBC report cited open source data from Ukraine’s Deep State and Washington’s Institute for the Study of War.
Observers, NBC reported, were worried that “these forays could expand into a full-scale breakthrough for the Kremlin.”
That said, one expert says no such breakthrough has happened, and might not.
No Breakthrough?
Rob Lee, a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute and leading expert on the war, gave an interview to the Kyiv Independent this week, following a recent visit to the Eastern front in the war.
Lee noted that he knew that summer would be harder for Ukraine than winter, but that summer hadn’t turned out as bad for Ukraine as it could have- and that mostly, “Ukraine’s lines are holding.”
The key, he added, was the question of whether Russia can make a real “operational breakthrough,” one that collapses lines.
“We haven’t seen that thus far,” he said, adding that he expects Russia to try to continue to advance through the winter.
“But if they get to the winter, then the rate of advance will probably decrease again,” he said.
Meanwhile, Lee added that where the frontline even is has sometimes been a complicated question. In front, the front line isn’t always coherent, especially when Russian forces look for and exploit weak spots in the front line.
“It makes it more difficult to really understand and assess- what is the control on both sides? What is the front line? It’s not only [the question of] can Ukraine’s infantry can hold the front line, if it’s very small grounds, then Russia can get behind them.”
The interview included many other topics, including the drone wars between Russia and Ukraine, and their overall effect on the war.
A New Threat From Putin
Then there’s the other question, of how the war could potentially end.
Russian President Vladimir Putin issued a threat on Wednesday, per Reuters: End the war with talks, or he will end it by force. The comments arrived during Putin’s visit to China, where he participated in a military parade to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II.
“It seems to me that if common sense prevails, it will be possible to agree on an acceptable solution to end this conflict. That is my assumption,” the Russian leader told reporters in Beijing.
He also referenced Donald Trump and his desire to bring a quick end to the war, while ignoring the less conciliatory things Trump has said about Putin of late.
“Especially since we can see the mood of the current U.S. administration under President Trump, and we see not just their statements, but their sincere desire to find this solution,” Putin said.
“And I think there is a certain light at the end of the tunnel. Let’s see how the situation develops. If not, then we will have to resolve all the tasks before us by force of arms,” Putin added.
In negotiations in recent months, Russia has made maximalist demands for territory, as well as promises that Ukraine remain neutral in the future and not join NATO.
When asked about a one-on-one meeting with Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Putin told reporters that “ I have never ruled out the possibility of such a meeting. But is there any point? Let’s see.” He also raised the possibility of Zelenskyy coming to Moscow.
About the Author: Stephen Silver
Stephen Silver is an award-winning journalist, essayist, and film critic, and contributor to the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Broad Street Review, and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. For over a decade, Stephen has authored thousands of articles that focus on politics, national security, technology, and the economy. Follow him on X (formerly Twitter) at @StephenSilver, and subscribe to his Substack newsletter.
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Jim
September 4, 2025 at 9:40 am
Give drone tech its due:
There was a small breakthrough North East of Pokrovsk in a narrow salient, but it apparently stalled out and while many predicted an imminent Pokrovsk collapse (including myself) it didn’t happen.
Analysts describe arcs of death within kill zones created by drone saturation, a kind of “no go zone” in practical effect.
Both sides have created these drone kill zones which extend in an arc around a central pivot and it has contributed mightily to a crawling Russian advance.
What now?
A brutal war zone where death can rain from the sky with no warning, drones coming in low and going into bunkers, seemingly with your name on it, and vehicle travel turning into a Russian Roulette every time one gets out on the road.
Sadly, with no end in sight.
Or until exhaustion of men & material occurs for one side or the other.