Key Points and Summary – Russia’s once-mighty Black Sea Fleet has been effectively defeated by a Ukrainian force with virtually no navy of its own.
-Through the ingenious use of Neptune anti-ship missiles and innovative sea drones like the “Sea Baby,” Ukraine has sunk or damaged over a third of the Russian fleet, including its flagship, the Moskva.
-Russia’s strategic objectives—a blockade, an amphibious assault on Odesa, and launching cruise missiles with impunity—have all been thwarted.
-This David-and-Goliath victory has forced the fleet to retreat and has rendered it “functionally inactive,” a stunning embarrassment for Moscow.
The Russian Navy Lost the Black Sea War
Russia considers the Black Sea to be its own “lake.” While several countries have port cities on the Black Sea, Vladimir Putin believes this region belongs to Moscow.
The Black Sea is where the majority of Russian oil is transferred.
This is also the warm water home of a substantial Russian naval fleet – at least before the war with Ukraine.
It is this group of ships that has struggled so much during the war in Ukraine.
Russia lost its Black Sea flagship, the Moskva, during the early stages of the conflict.
This was one of the most advanced and modern warships in Russia’s entire navy, and it was sunk by Ukrainian anti-ship missiles in 2022.
Russia Planned an Amphibious Attack on Odesa
Another military possibility during the war was the likelihood that Russia would stage an amphibious attack on the strategic port city of Odesa.
That didn’t happen because Moscow discovered that its navy was ill-equipped to succeed with such a difficult operation while Ukraine fortified its defenses around the port.
Incredible Russian Naval Losses to Ukraine
Russia has mostly been defeated in the Black Sea. More than one-third of its ships have been damaged or destroyed during the war.
At least 26 vessels have been taken out of action. Key ships eliminated include the amphibious landing vessel Tsezar Kunikov and the missile corvette Ivanovets. Russia has also lost minesweepers and patrol boats.
This is all the more surprising because Ukraine has a minuscule navy. The defenders have been highly successful around Crimea and against the ships and infrastructure at Sevastopol.
Ukrainian Anti-Ship Technology Dominates
What has worked for Ukraine is the ingenious use of Neptune anti-ship missiles and drones. There are also unmanned sea vessels, such as the Sea Baby and Magura V5, as well as the Storm Shadow missile. The Russian Black Sea fleet has fled east to Novorossiysk in Russia’s Krasnodar region.
This has enabled more Ukrainian commercial shipping to export grain, a significant development, as Russia initially planned to blockade Ukrainian vessels carrying these agricultural products.
“Where is the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation? It’s gone! This is a fact of victory of the enemy,” said Duman deputy Yevgeny Fedorov in a video shared on X in 2024 by Ukrainian Anton Gerashchenko, Newsweek noted.
“Of course, the fleet’s air defense systems will be working on the ships,” Federov said, “but the Russian fleet as an operational mechanism does not exist on the Black Sea.”
The Russian Black Sea Fleet Is a Paper Tiger
The Black Sea fleet has been called “functionally inactive,” by the British Ministry of Defense. Ukraine has figured out how to create an anti-access/area denial system of layered defenses with its missiles, drones, and uncrewed surface vessels.
Russia has been surprised by how well this has worked, and it could provide valuable lessons that other navies could take to heart. Namely, that naval warfare has undergone a significant transformation. This is asymmetric warfare conducted by Ukraine, and its military personnel seem to have won the Battle of the Black Sea.
No Russian Strategic Objectives Were Met
Russia wanted to launch cruise missiles unabated at Ukrainian cities and military targets. They wished to form a blockade, and they sought to conduct an amphibious operation to strike the Ukrainians in the south. Ukraine has stymied all of these objectives.
One reason for this is Ukrainian ingenuity with indigenously-produced weapons such as the Magura V5. “The explosive-laden vehicle was designed to do what many thought impossible: travel long distances across stormy seas, undetected by radar, and deliver 500 to 700 pounds of explosives to distant targets,” according to the Conversation.
The Maguras have damaged the new flagship of the Black Sea fleet – the Admiral Makarov. The drones were also credited with the sinking of the Ivanovets – a missile corvette.
To add insult to injury, when the Black Sea fleet withdrew to Novorossiysk, Russian ships were targeted again by longer-range Sea Baby explosive-laden drone vessels that could sail over 500 miles and hit paydirt. Sea Baby drones can even lay mines that have damaged the Russian fleet. The advanced uncrewed vessels also carry rocket launchers.
This weapons production has been key to Ukraine’s naval success. The Russians have been embarrassed and beaten down, much to the chagrin of Putin and his admirals. The Black Sea Fleet is a shadow of what it used to be and is no longer a factor in the war.
This David and Goliath battle that Russia has lost has alerted other groups who try to use asymmetric warfare against bigger foes, such as the Iranian-backed Houthis terrorists in Yemen.
These militants wreaked havoc on commercial shipping and military vessels, although the U.S. Navy lost no ships during incessant attacks by Houthi missiles and drones.
The Chinese are also taking note and probably arming their various militarized islands with anti-ship missiles and explosive sea drones that could punish the U.S. Navy and its allies.
The Battle of the Black Sea has been a source of embarrassment for Russia. The Ukrainians have executed the anti-access/area-denial strategy effectively, despite not having a navy. Military vessels around the world will learn to stay away from coastlines as missiles, drones, and unmanned watercraft laden with explosives do more damage than expected.
This will serve as a wake-up call to navies that have long assumed that large numbers of vessels can intimidate a smaller enemy. The Ukrainians have proved that to be a myth.
About the Author: Brent M. Eastwood
Brent M. Eastwood, PhD is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for US Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former US Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.
Military Affairs
The Air Force Has an F-47 Fighter Problem
The Aircraft Carrier Is No More
The Royal Navy’s Astute-Class Nuclear Attack Submarine Is Quiet as a Dolphin
