Key Points and Summary – While the fighting rages on, a hard look at the map suggests Russia may have already achieved a de facto victory in Ukraine.
-Russian forces now occupy roughly 20% of Ukrainian territory, totaling over 44,000 square miles.
-This includes a near-total grip on the Donbas, with 88% of the region, including all of Luhansk, now under Moscow’s control.
-With Russia firmly entrenched in these territories and peace talks potentially solidifying these lines, it’s difficult to see how Ukraine can reverse the situation, suggesting Putin has already secured his core territorial objectives.
The Ukraine War Looks Over
When Putin launched his “special military operation” in Ukraine three and a half years ago, he did so with several very clear goals: 200,000 soldiers would take control of Ukraine’s capital city, Kyiv, overthrow its pro-Western government, and “demilitarize and denazify” the country.
Over time, Russia’s focus moved specifically to the Donbas – a region of eastern Ukraine with historic ties to Russia and a large, Russian-speaking population.
Fighting continues in Ukraine – but the case could be made that Russia has already won the war.
Between optimism from Washington about a peace deal, Kyiv potentially willing to cede territory in exchange for new security guarantees, and Russia already controlling huge sections of eastern Ukraine, it’s hard to see how Ukrainian forces could possibly turn it all around.
Russia Already Controls Much of the Donbas
Not only does Russia control the vast majority of the Donbas, its forces now occupy large sections of southeastern Ukraine.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy disputes the figures, but Western leaders and analysts note that roughly 19-20% of Ukraine is now occupied by Russia. The latest data shows Russia controls over 44,000 square miles of Ukraine, including Crimea, which was annexed in 2014. Moscow already considers the Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions of Ukraine officially part of its own map.
88% of the Donbas region is now occupied – as is 75% of Donetsk. Luhansk, meanwhile, is fully under the control of Russian forces.
It doesn’t look good for Ukraine in the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions, either. Ukraine controls just 5,500 square miles of the regions, while Putin’s forces control about 74% of the territories – roughly 16,000 square miles.
Russian forces have made their presence known elsewhere in Ukraine, too. Known as “buffer zones,” multiple regions in the north of Ukraine near Kharkiv and Sumy are presently occupied by Russian forces.
The fate of these regions remains unclear, but in the event of a “land swap” deal proposed by U.S. President Donald Trump, it’s entirely possible that Russian troops in the north may withdraw in exchange for the rest of eastern Ukraine currently controlled by tired Ukrainian forces.
What Will Russia Do Next?
Should Trump’s peace efforts fail, however, there’s also no telling what Russia might do next.
Former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev warned in May that Russia could push ahead with plans to occupy the entirety of Ukraine if Western leaders continue to send weapons.
His comments, as is typical of Medvedev, were primarily seen as deliberately provocative and unrealistic.
The Institute for the Study of War responded by noting that it could take another century of war to achieve that goal, assuming the current rate of Russian advances remains static.
However, ultimately, that may not matter: Russia already controls most of the territory it needs to consider the invasion a success, and a peace deal—satisfying its territorial demands in the east—looks at least possible.
About the Author:
Jack Buckby is a British author, counter-extremism researcher, and journalist based in New York who writes frequently for National Security Journal. Reporting on the U.K., Europe, and the U.S., he works to analyze and understand left-wing and right-wing radicalization, and reports on Western governments’ approaches to the pressing issues of today. His books and research papers explore these themes and propose pragmatic solutions to our increasingly polarized society. His latest book is The Truth Teller: RFK Jr. and the Case for a Post-Partisan Presidency.
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