Key Points and Summary – With Ukraine diplomacy collapsing, Moscow staged one of its largest air assaults since 2022—over 800 drones and decoys—killing three and hammering government sites.
-Kyiv continues asymmetric strikes on Russian infrastructure while Zelenskyy rejects talks in Moscow; Putin resists neutral-site negotiations.
Ukraine Switchblade Drone. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
-Ukraine warns Russia is massing ~100,000 troops near Pokrovsk for a renewed push. NATO states face a “hybrid” campaign of cyber and aerial provocations, heightening tension.
-Washington and Brussels weigh tougher measures targeting Russian energy exports and the shadow tanker fleet, with secondary tariffs under discussion to pressure buyers and Beijing.
-Politically, Trump’s pledge to end the war swiftly faces a harsher reality.
Russia Goads NATO As Ukraine Diplomacy Flounders
As peace talks stall, Moscow continues to assault Ukraine. Over the weekend, it unleashed one of its largest air attacks on Ukraine since its invasion began in 2022.
800 plus drones and decoys smashed into government buildings and left three dead.
This was hardly just another attack, but yet another sign that when Vladimir Putin feels global diplomacy is not proceeding to his liking, he will keep turning to missiles.
Ukraine Continues to Hit Back
In turn, Ukraine has reportedly continued its attacks on Russian infrastructure, such as oil refineries, although it has not publicly claimed responsibility for the daring strikes.
Last week Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy publicly ruled out Putin’s demand to meet in Moscow, calling it impossible to sit down in “the capital of this terrorist” while Russian rockets pound his cities. Putin has likewise brushed off suggestions of meeting in a neutral country.
Negotiations earlier this year in Istanbul had raised faint hopes after producing agreements on prisoner exchanges. But since then, progress has all but collapsed. Donald Trump, who has positioned himself as the West’s chief broker since returning to the White House, met both Putin and Zelenskyy in August. Neither encounter shifted the battlefield reality.
And the battlefield is where Putin appears most confident. Ukrainian officials have accused Russia of massing a whopping 100,000 troops close to Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast, in preparation for a renewed autumn offensive.
The Kremlin may have suffered heavy losses, but it is doubling down on its claim that occupied regions in the Donbas amount to “Russian land.”
Beyond Ukraine: Moscow’s ‘Hybrid’ War Against NATO
Peter Zalmayev, executive director of the Eurasia Democracy Initiative, told Al Jazeera on Tuesday that Russia was already engaged in a “hybrid wave of aggression” against NATO states, referencing Moscow’s engagements in cyber attacks and intimidation abroad, alongside from its air provocations against Poland and Romania in recent days.
With peace prospects dimming, Western attention is turning again to sanctions. The U.S. and EU are weighing new penalties that could strike at Russia’s energy sector and the “shadow fleet” of tankers used to dodge restrictions.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has spoken of coordinated secondary tariffs on countries still buying Russian oil, a move that would squeeze Moscow’s finances and put Beijing on notice.
Russia: Sanctions Won’t Change Our Mind
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has stressed that sanctions will not shift Russia’s position.
However, targeting energy exports and shipping are likely to prove much more painful than previous measures, especially if Chinese firms begin to weather the impact.
For Trump, the political stakes are huge. He campaigned on the claim he could end the war in “a day or two.”
So far, he’s avoided hitting Russia with the kind of sweeping penalties his advisers say could force Putin back to the table.
About the Author: Georgia Gilholy
Georgia Gilholy is a journalist based in the United Kingdom who has been published in Newsweek, The Times of Israel, and the Spectator. Gilholy writes about international politics, culture, and education. You can follow her on X: @llggeorgia.
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Jim
September 23, 2025 at 10:17 pm
Yes, the peace talks have stalled and Trump via his social media suggests Ukraine can retake all territory back to 1991 borders and maybe then some because of European and NATO support.
This has surprised people as it suggests a Bidenesque Ukraine policy… somehow without American money, how much, if any, NATO would be supplied with U. S. sourced Dollars behind the scenes is unknown.
(Or receive another Congressional authorization for money & weapons as some Senators & Congressman want.)
Trump pretty much took up the Keith Kellog assessment in his post stating Russia is struggling economically on the home front and hung up at the war front, failing to advance.
Suggesting a picture of a tottering Russia much less secure than Russia admits.
So now we see which assessment is closest to accurate in terms of forces on the ground and the shape of the Russian economy.
Certainly, many pro-Ukraine analysts have been saying this same thing for a long time, really since the start of the war.
Obviously, others take a different view… who’s right will be determined on the battlefield.
But I also suggest Trump is taking off the mask of peace maker. Trump always wanted a demarcation line (cease fire line) where NATO would rebuild Ukraine’s military forces and provide security guarantees as put forth in the Keith Kellog Peace Plan…
… interestingly, General Kellog has been more visible, giving a presentation in Ukraine recently, and quipping how “we’d kick their ass” and Russia is losing the war.
So, we’ll see how things shake out.