Key Points and Summary – Russia’s Air Force, the world’s third-largest, is arguably a “spent force” after more than three years of war in Ukraine.
-The conflict has inflicted severe blows, with staggering combat losses of aircraft and experienced crews, including high-value assets like A-50 radar planes.
-Compounding the damage, Western sanctions have crippled Russia’s aerospace industry, stalling production of next-generation fighters and bombers.
-This is creating a “double-whammy” effect, as Ukrainian strikes on oil facilities further strain a military struggling with both a lack of modern hardware and the funds to produce it.
Is Russia’s Air Force a Spent Force?
According to the World Directory of Modern Military Aircraft, the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) has 3,677 aircraft in its active inventory, thus ranking it third out of 129 individual air services from 103 different countries.
The VKS, like its Soviet-era predecessor, is feared not only for its sheer size, but also for technological prowess. That prowess is a thread connecting older but still highly capable fourth-generation jet fighters such as the MiG-29 and the Sukhoi Su-27 to the 4.5-generation MiG-35 and the fifth-generation Su-57.
However, thanks to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s seemingly never-ending war against Ukraine, Russia’s air force has taken severe blows, both to its numbers and its credibility.
That in turn begs the questions of what happens when the war is over. Can the VKS regain elite status?
Grim Casualty Numbers for the VKS
As of April 2024, Russia had lost about 10 percent of its aircraft, according to Gen. Christopher Cavoli, the commander of the U.S. European Command and NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander in Europe. Gen. Cavoli didn’t elaborate on how many Russian pilots and other aircrew have been killed, wounded, or captured in the process.
To cite some of the VKS’ most shocking and embarrassing losses:
-At least two Beriev A-50U/M radar planes have been shot down by the Ukrainians, along with at least one that was damaged while on the ground. These planes are the equivalent of the U.S. Air Force’s E-3 Sentry Airborne Early Warning and Control aircraft and are worth the equivalent of $300 million apiece.
Each lost plane degrades Russia’s airborne sensor and command-and-control capabilities. What’s more, each downed A-50 amounts to 15 Russian airmen taken out of the skies.
-On June 7, 2025, one of Russia’s vaunted 4.5-generation Su-35 Flanker-E fighters was downed. Some unverified sources claim a Ukrainian F-16 was the aggressor.
-That same month, Russia’s bomber fleet was the target of a strike by 117 Ukrainian drones against four airfields deep inside Russia.
Assessments by John Ford, a research associate at the California-based James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, and Brady Africk, an open source intelligence analyst, indicate that at least two Tupolev Tu-22M and four Tu-95 strategic heavy bombers were destroyed or heavily damaged.
Grim Economic and Logistical Prospects for the VKS Too
Besides the combat losses, the VKS – and the Russian aerospace industry in general – are suffering from major economic woes thanks to Western sanctions. These sanctions negatively affect aircraft production.
The Russian Aerospace Forces’ prospective sixth-generation stealth bomber, the PAK DA, is tentatively scheduled to make its maiden flight in prototype form sometime this year, or in 2026; it was originally planned for 2019. Serial production is expected to begin by 2032. But that may be optimistic, as the cash-strapped Russian aerospace industry lacks the microchips necessary to get the bomber off the ground.
Meanwhile, the aforementioned Su-57 Felon stealth fighter is in production, but it has lagged far behind America’s F-22 Raptor and F-35 Lightning II, as well as China’s Chengdu J-20. Only 21 Felons (not counting 10 prototypes) had been delivered to the VKS as of December 2023.
Then there’s the Sukhoi Su-75 “Checkmate” stealth fighter, a program still failing to get anywhere near liftoff. Sanctions are keeping it grounded, and the Su-75 has failed to generate interest from would-be foreign customers such as India, the United Arab Emirates, and Vietnam.
The Su-75’s best prospective buyer appears to be Belarus, a country headed by Putin’s buddy, President Alexander Lukashenko.
The Way Forward?
The VKS’ prospects for an economic and logistical revival have taken a further hit in the form of lost oil production.
Russia’s economy is heavily dependent on oil revenue, and Ukraine has made a habit of striking Russian oil fields.
As Adam Toms of Daily Express elaborates: “Russia is facing a gasoline shortage which will likely lead to inflation a cause further chaos, experts have said.
“Recent Ukrainian strikes on oil refineries have caused a spike in gasoline prices across Russia and occupied Ukraine, the Institute for the Study of War reported. This will ‘likely result in increased consumer costs and increased business expenses across industries’, experts believe. The ISW added: ‘This increase would drive inflation expectations and also push overall inflation upwards by increasing both direct and indirect costs throughout the economy.’”
That translates to less oil available for the VKS’ currently fielded aircraft, and less funding available for aircraft development and production: a double-whammy for the viability of the Russian Air Force.
About the Author: Christian D. Orr, Defense Expert
Christian D. Orr is a Senior Defense Editor. He is a former Air Force Security Forces officer, Federal law enforcement officer, and private military contractor (with assignments worked in Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kosovo, Japan, Germany, and the Pentagon). Chris holds a B.A. in International Relations from the University of Southern California (USC) and an M.A. in Intelligence Studies (concentration in Terrorism Studies) from American Military University (AMU).
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