Key Points and Summary – Trump vowed to end Russia’s war in 24 hours, but his mixed signals—floating territorial concessions, then promising Kyiv security guarantees and telling Putin to “STOP”—leave policy murky.
-On the ground, attrition grinds on, with Russia advancing slowly and taking heavy losses.
-Analysts see a potential deal coalescing: freeze the front near today’s line of control, deny Moscow legal recognition, harden Ukraine’s defenses, accelerate EU integration, and postpone the NATO fight.
-Kyiv bristles at any hint of concession, and U.S. aid remains inconsistent. An uneasy peace—bitter yet durable—may be the only realistic off-ramp. Whether Trump delivers it, or leaves Ukraine exposed, is unclear.
Trump’s Ukraine Deal Could Bring Uneasy Peace
Donald Trump once vowed to end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours.
This ambitious pledge remains unfulfilled.
The current US President claims to crave peace, but his inconsistent pattern of publicly see-sawing between sympathy with Kyiv and Moscow, respectively, has left both parties confused.
Is this part of his maverick strategy, or a sign his administration is deeply conflicted?
Trump: Putin Must STOP
August’s White House summit with Volodymyr Zelensky and a slew of European leaders saw Trump reportedly considering handing parts of Ukraine’s eastern territory, which it still controls, to Russia.
However, the President later seemingly backtracked, stating that the United States would offer Kyiv solid security guarantees if the fighting came to a halt. Shortly following these talks, Trump also openly slated Vladimir Putin, demanding that he “STOP” his drone and missile attacks on Ukrainian cities.
He then abandoned previous calls for a ceasefire and hinted at expanding US-Russia trade ties in the future.
Overall, Washington’s policy towards Russia is a muddled one. Military and intelligence aid to Kyiv has been halted and restarted. Tariffs were slapped on India, largely because of its Russian oil imports, while Russia and China were left untouched.
1,000 Daily Russian Casualties
Meanwhile, the battlefield picture is grim, especially for Kyiv and its allies. Russia is gaining land, although at a slow and costly pace, with some 1,000 daily casualties according to the Centre for Strategic and International Studies.
While Ukraine’s war effort shows zero sign of abating, there is little general hope that it could feasibly regain all the land it has lost since 2014. Russian attacks on civilian infrastructure have yet to force a surrender, and Kyiv’s constitution legally prevents the cessation of any sovereign territory to other states.
Russians are also beginning to feel the impact of fuel shortages and mounting losses caused by what the Kremlin dubs a “special military operation”.
With both sides locked in attrition, Cynthia Roberts, of Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs, argued in a Foreign Policy magazine op-ed that we could see expectations converging on the current line of control. Putin demands recognition of additional land already annexed on paper; Ukraine refuses to sign away sovereignty.
The outlines of a deal that would freeze the front while denying Russia legal legitimacy are still being seriously pondered, but neither side wants to concede first.
Compromise May Be Inevitable: On Both Sides
A more realistic settlement could involve fortifying Ukraine’s defenses, embedding it in the European Union, and postponing the NATO debate.
Ukrainian sources have expressed fury at the latter suggestion. Kyiv could also redraw some internal borders to deny Moscow symbolic victories while dodging a formal surrender.
Western aid could then pivot away from sweeping guarantees and more toward making Ukraine militarily strong enough to deter another invasion.
Such a route to peace could help Trump frame his leadership as courageously pragmatic. He would likely suggest he helped end the bloody war without giving Russia’s attempted conquest formal recognition; however, Ukraine’s supporters are likely to be so charitable about such a result.
The war is unlikely to end with either side’s maximal demands. A peace that is bitter but stable might be the most realistic option available to a war-weary West.
Whether Trump will deliver that, or simply leave Ukraine exposed to Putin’s whims, remains uncertain.
About the Author: Georgia Gilholy
Georgia Gilholy is a journalist based in the United Kingdom who has been published in Newsweek, The Times of Israel, and the Spectator. Gilholy writes about international politics, culture, and education. You can follow her on X: @llggeorgia.
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Jim
September 12, 2025 at 2:32 pm
From the key points and summary:
“-Analysts see a potential deal coalescing: freeze the front near today’s line of control, deny Moscow legal recognition, harden Ukraine’s defenses, accelerate EU integration, and postpone the NATO fight.”
I appreciate the author suggesting a “peace deal.”
But there is only one peace deal available:
A peace treaty of neutrality for Ukraine.
A postponement of the NATO fight. What does that mean? Rebuild a NATO-ized Ukraine and launch an attack at a time of their choosing… you gotta be kidding, right?
No, a durable and stable new security architecture for Europe, one with mutual security or indivisible security. One nation-state’s security cannot be diminished by “security” movers by another nation-state or collection of nation-states.
But I’m also aware, there are Political Forces both in Europe & the United States which will never accept a peace treaty of neutrality for Ukraine.
In fact, they are so opposed to neutrality for Ukraine they are willing to risk escalating to a European War against Russia no matter how reckless and likely to lead to a Conventional World War Three.
So, a hard, non-negotiable position for fighting it out to the end.
Russia will never accept a Ukraine in a position to be NATO-ized… especially, over time, so that Ukraine and its sponsors rebuild its military potential and then can launch a war against Russia at a time of their choosing.
So, the war continues until there is a clear Winner!
It ain’t going to be Ukraine (Ukraine will be reduced to the ash heap of history).
Unless, Ukraine and its sponsors accept a Peace Treaty of Neutrality for Ukraine, in perpetuity.
Your choice… keep fighting to the end or accept neutrality.
Take it or leave it.
Jim
September 12, 2025 at 5:27 pm
Ukraine was neutral from its independence until the 2014 overthrow. Why is it so hard to go back to neutrality?