As the front line slowly approaches Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, Russia has increased its shelling and bombing attacks against the two last Ukrainian-held major cities in the Donetsk Oblast.
With the front line less than 20 miles from the two cities, civilians still living there are caught in the crossfire.
Su-34 Fullback Airshow Photo Creative Commons Image
Su-34 Fullback from Russia. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
In a recent attack, Russian glide bombs destroyed two minibusses in Kramatorsk, killing at least 33 civilians and injuring another 18.
This follows the attack that struck an apartment building in Prylucky.
Meanwhile, Russia continues striking targets across the country using jet-powered Geran-4/5/ drones.
As Moscow ramps up its strikes against Ukraine, civilians have become increasingly vulnerable.
Civilian Casualties Rising: A Brutal Attack
According to Ukrainian news media, the attacks against Kramatorsk were carried out by KAB glide bombs, likely launched by Su-34 tactical aircraft, and destroyed two minibusses with civilians inside.
The bombs either hit the buses while they were parked or hit nearby while they were in transit.
In the aftermath of the attack, President Zelenskyy condemned the attack and vowed to respond against Russia. “This strike will not go without our response. Russia is trying to destroy all life in Donbas, and the world needs to react to this,” the Ukrainian President wrote on Telegram.
The Ukrainian Governor of Donetsk, Vadym Filashkin, likewise condemned the attack, saying that “Russia comes to the Ukrainian land with death. She hits our cities, kills our people and multiplies her crimes every day.”
Sukhoi Su-34 Heading Into the Sky. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
Su-34 Fullback Fighter-Bomber. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
Following the attack, the nearby city of Sloviansk suspended all public transportation.
Currently, some estimates put the front line roughly 30 kilometers, or around 18 miles, from Kramatorsk.
Kramatorsk and Sloviansk are the last major cities in the Donetsk Oblast and are the two most heavily fortified Ukrainian positions in the Donbas.
Sloviansk holds especially significant symbolic value for the Russians, as it is where the Ukrainian civil war began more than ten years ago.
Taking the two cities would not end the war, but it would be a tremendous morale boost for the Russians.
However, given the current rate of Russia’s advance, it will likely take months to reach the city and several more months to take the two fortresses.
Massive Drone Attacks Across Ukraine
Meanwhile, Russian drones continue to strike targets throughout Ukraine. Kyiv was hit especially hard on October 8, after a drone attack killed four people and injured another 19.
Geran-4/5 drones struck the Trypillya Thermal Power Plant in Kyiv Oblast, port infrastructure in Odesa, and the Lutsk Airbase.
As a result, Kyiv and other regions in Ukraine are reintroducing scheduled power outages to limit energy consumption.
As temperatures drop further and Russian attacks on energy infrastructure ramp up, these blackouts are likely to last longer.
Regional authorities also said attacks on energy infrastructure affected the water supply network on Kyiv’s right bank. Likewise, the capital city’s Metro service was temporarily halted due to electrical disruptions.
In Zaporizhzhia, the Russians launched more than 26 KAB glide bombs against the city, likely targeting the Dnipro Hydro Electric Power Plant along with other installations around the city.
Logistics centers, warehouses, and shopping centers were also struck in the drone attacks.
The Russian Ministry of Defense also claimed that it had struck another ship in the Black Sea that was supposedly being used to carry weapons and other military supplies.
The Russians also claimed to have hit several “defense enterprises” involved in the manufacturing and creation of attack drones for Ukraine.
The attacks come amid crippling air-defense shortages in Kyiv and other parts of the country.
The Rocket-Powered Drones Currently Plaguing Ukraine
In yesterday’s attacks, the Russians did not utilize a single cruise or ballistic missile. Instead, they used Geran-4/Geran-5 rocket-powered UAVs.
These drones have created a unique problem for Ukraine.
Cheaper to produce than cruise missiles, Russia is producing hundreds, if not thousands, of Geran-4/5s every month, and production is expected to increase in the coming years.
They are essentially budget cruise missiles and, thanks to recent improvements in their range and guidance systems, they allow Russia to conduct large-scale attacks without using strategic aviation.
These low-cost munitions also force Ukraine to expend valuable air defense missiles.
With its PAC–3 missile stores mostly depleted, Ukraine can still reliably intercept slower cruise missiles.
Although the Geran-4/5 have a smaller payload than a cruise missile, they still force Kyiv to expend valuable munitions to defend its energy infrastructure.
Russia’s newest rocket-powered drones have given Moscow an advantage over Ukraine’s defenses. Ukraine, which only recently found a reliable way to intercept Russian propeller drones, is still struggling to defend itself against the Geran-4/5.
To counter older Gerans, Ukraine developed new interceptor drones.
However, new rocket-powered Gerans are much harder for Ukraine to intercept without wasting high-cost missiles. “There is currently no mass-produced effective product among interceptors,” said Serhiy Sternenko, the drone warfare advisor to former Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov. “There are prototypes that showed different results, but to bring the prototype to a large series requires a lot of effort, and sometimes it is even impossible due to limited access to certain components.” He also noted that Ukraine’s interceptor industry is still young, but will mature more with time and experience.
About the Author: Isaac Seitz
Isaac Seitz, a Defense Columnist, graduated from Patrick Henry College’s Strategic Intelligence and National Security program. He has also studied Russian at Middlebury Language Schools and has worked as an intelligence Analyst in the private sector.
