Key Points and Summary – Donald Trump’s new Truth Social post links fresh U.S. sanctions on Russia to a full NATO embargo on Russian oil—effectively putting Hungary’s Viktor Orbán and Slovakia’s Robert Fico in the crosshairs.
-EU Russian oil imports have fallen from 27% in 2022 to about 3% in 2024, with most of the remainder flowing to those two holdouts.
-Trump’s framing carries two big ripple effects: it empowers Brussels to lean harder on Budapest and Bratislava, and it signals Kyiv could shutter the Druzhba pipeline that supplies them.
-If Ukraine acts, both nations would be forced off Russian crude. Expect loud protests—and recalculations.
Trump Has a Plan to Squeeze Russian Oil Profits
President Donald Trump has just put the squeeze on Europe’s two most authoritarian prime ministers: Victor Orban of Hungary and Robert Fico of Slovakia.
And Trump has done this by posting the following on his Truth Social platform:
A LETTER SENT BY PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP TO ALL NATO NATIONS AND, THE WORLD: “I am ready to do major Sanctions on Russia when all NATO Nations have agreed, and started, to do the same thing, and when all NATO Nations STOP BUYING OIL FROM RUSSIA. As you know, NATO’S commitment to WIN has been far less than 100%, and the purchase of Russian Oil, by some, has been shocking! It greatly weakens your negotiating position, and bargaining power, over Russia. Anyway, I am ready to “go” when you are. Just say when?”
Back in 2022, the European Union’s imports of Russian oil amounted to 27 percent of its total imports. That number dropped precipitously, to 3 percent, by 2024.
And almost all of the remaining amount of imported Russian oil goes to Hungary and Slovakia, both of which have refused to look for alternative sources and both of which are led by leaders who claim to be the US president’s friends and supporters.
Wittingly or not, Trump has made US sanctions dependent, not on Europe, but on Hungary and Slovakia.
Although tying US sanctions to Hungary’s and Slovakia’s oil imports gets the United States off the hook of having to take the lead with respect to sanctioning Russia, it also has two, possibly unintended, consequences.
First, Trump has effectively given Europe the green light to pressure Orban and Fico to comply, not with the European Union’s wishes, which may always be resisted, but with those of Trump, which are far more difficult to resist.
It’s now up to the EU to utilize Trump’s green light and strongarm Hungary and Slovakia.
Second, Trump has also given Ukraine the green light to close down the Druzhba pipeline that traverses Ukraine and provides Hungary and Slovakia with Russian oil.
As Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjárto recently said, “if deliveries via the Druzhba pipeline become impossible for a long time, then the oil supply to Hungary and Slovakia will also become impossible.”
It’s now up to Ukraine to wean Hungary and Slovakia off Russian oil by putting the Druzhba pipeline out of commission.
Orban and Fico will squeal and protest. But to no avail. The green light was Trump’s.
About the Author: Dr. Alexander Motyl, Rutgers University
Dr. Alexander Motyl is a professor of political science at Rutgers-Newark. A specialist on Ukraine, Russia, and the USSR, and on nationalism, revolutions, empires, and theory, he is the author of 10 books of nonfiction, including Pidsumky imperii (2009); Puti imperii (2004); Imperial Ends: The Decay, Collapse, and Revival of Empires (2001); Revolutions, Nations, Empires: Conceptual Limits and Theoretical Possibilities (1999); Dilemmas of Independence: Ukraine after Totalitarianism (1993); and The Turn to the Right: The Ideological Origins and Development of Ukrainian Nationalism, 1919–1929 (1980); the editor of 15 volumes, including The Encyclopedia of Nationalism (2000) and The Holodomor Reader (2012); and a contributor of dozens of articles to academic and policy journals, newspaper op-ed pages, and magazines. He also has a weekly blog, “Ukraine’s Orange Blues.”
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Jim
September 13, 2025 at 10:49 pm
I understand the Europeans won’t go with full sanctions against India and China and are reluctant to forgo all hydrocarbon imports that have contacts with Russia (importing Indian petroleum products made from Russian crude oil and LNG which also has contacts with Russia).. as a whole, not just Orban or Fico.
Apparently, Europe doesn’t want to commit economic suicide for Ukraine… could they be smelling the coffee? Or the brewing political rebellions in their respective countries.?
Europe doesn’t want to cut itself off from China. Why cut themselves off from the most dynamic economy on the Asian Continent?
Trump, at present, won’t accept neutrality for Ukraine, but with Europe not willing to go down the full sanctions path which Trump has apparently pushed on them, he may decide to take a different path.
What path?
Drag it out… until Kiev is defeated on the battlefield.
How letting it drag out instead of being decisive helps Trump is questionable (he won’t cross the Washington Establishment).
Until Trump starts talking “neutrality for Ukraine” the war will continue to the bitter end.
Swamplaw Yankee
September 14, 2025 at 6:14 pm
How about that! Another timely spotlight on a smaller point in this ongoing ancient 1000 year Genocide of Ukrainians by Putin’s ethnic butchers. Dr. Motyl seems to point out details that are clear to a Ukrainian but harder to spot by the many ethnic tribes that are most knowledgeable about whom? Themselves.
Both states have a past in ww2. It seeks a compound adjective. Even before the “official start” of ww2 the 2 nations made decisions that cost many hundreds of thousand of Ukrainian lives. Hungary was quite associated with their Neighbour, Hitler, facilitating military action against one of the Ukrainian states that existed at that specific time.
Doctor Motyl points out the Yankee regime use of the: Green Light! Yes, indeed: How does this green light actually worK? It has existed in US politics for centuries, yet is as mysterious as the far away green light in the novel “Great Gatsby”.
My reference’s to this Nebulous green light concept are numerous. Does the green light point out a major deficiency in the MSM or Academic reportage of, in particular, US foreign affairs?
The whole miasma of the wholesale Genocide of Ukrainians re-started in 2014 when the POTUS Obama Democrat Cabal unilaterally Greenlit the geopolitical loss to NATO of Ukraine’s Crimean soil, families and Black/Azov sea jurisdictional zones, a tsunami betrayal of the WEST to the prime vile Cold war enemy, Tsarling Putin.
There was no international pre-discourse from marxist Obama, Obama wanted to covertly destroy decades of NATO effort as his Democrat Cabal glibly bonded with his Moscow located blood brothers. What, Democrats care about the huge glaring, centuries old, genetic need of russkies to kill Ukrainians!
The peer readers depend on Dr. Motyl’s significant intraspecific covariation, his knowledge that shows the essential difference in fact that the MSM SO FREQUENTLY misses.
The contrast is so conveniently here for the peer reader. Agit-prop manufactured narratives, “tovar” of “kovarstvo” shot out by pro-ruusskie shiills. Fellow travelers of the NAZI-like FSB, the Kremlin code word of the day suddenly appears in/on the shill’s menu.
Today: neutrality. The uneducated Yankee is conned to believe that neutrality is not for the violent Genocide-loving Ruusskies! Neutrality is now the “in” code word pushed by Putin in all the venues that his shill mob access. Neutrality, the ruusskie shills, shriek is best for the centuries of Ukrainian victims.
The world’s first Constitution appeared in 1710 from a Ukrainian Father who has seen generations of sex trading Ruusskie slaves grab the gold for “Harvested” Ukrainian Christian Children. The year most referenced here is 1616, when Ukrainian Fathers defeated both muslim Ottoman + ruusskie sex/slaver traders.
The lack of MSM focus on Ukrainian History is a problem. Who knows that Philyp Orlyk published out the first constitution? That first constitution was stolen by the shill’s FSB Boss as well as many current ( post-2022) thefts of Ukrainian art and archeology of old Ukraine.
The orc russkies in particular love the theft of coins and gold sculptures. Those Scythian gold artifacts and gold coins, just instantly vanish into the deep pockets of high ranking Russkie Genociders. Yeah, maybe the Ukrainian and old masters canvas paintings are only sent close to Putin’s control, but gold, that is a Free gift to the orc Genocide elite.
The PRC CCP Xi regime knows that the vassal Putin needs huge gold transfers from China to make up the Fascist deficits. With the nearing turn of missile/drone technology to Ukraine’s favour, Zi must make a NEW “LONG GAME” for vassal putin. Just as Orban yearns to return to his March 1939 butchery of Ukrainians, Hungary must select a new “LONG GAME”: and real fast as Doctor Motyl cogently points out.
Zi best be smart for the PRC and cut a deal with Ukraine. The Ruusskie Shills know the doom that awaits them because of their vicious front line of Genocide butchery is all over the internet.
Zi can be the “surprise” NOBEL PEACE PRIZE winner very, very easily. The PRC can be lead by Zi into a “world class” Win-Win situation with a 2025 deal cut with Ukraine.
The Ukraine is the prime Candidate for any and all Strategic moves by Xi. Xi very well knows the sept 1971 Lin Biao fable. Fiddling with Mao’s heir did not turn out for the ‘tainye stati’ issued by the Kremlin KGB. Why was the trident jet heading for the USSR over eastern Mongolia?
The Putin Cabal thought they could bat .888 on all the intelligence shit the Kremlin pulled. Yeah, the 1986 con used in the Balkans worked well on the Putin KGB re-play on Genius POTUS Obama in 2014. But, that same original con resulted in the UDBA dissipation along with Yugoslavia. Everyone can see that Putin replayed that con too heavily and the Yugoslavia principle is well on its way thru the NAZI-like FSB. What? The UDBA killed off Tito’s enemies as well as the KGB, if not better!
Doctor Motyl has sent out the century old Quantum physics tout sheet to the peer readers. The ruusskie shill has screamed out in his post that the Putin entry has a broken leg just entering, notout of the gate. How much time does Zi have to save the PRC CCP from the LONG GAME set up for the PRC by vassal Putin’s blinding Genetic hidden need to butcher Ukrainians?
I sit with my hot dog at Aquaduct and watch the board intently! FYI, the late money bet moves in mysterious ways. Wait, that is Zi holding a huge wad of paper, pumping out tickets at the high value missile/drone machine. How much did Zi bet and, crucially, did he beat the Bell??? What peer reader(s) is helping me write ‘that’ script for Netflix? -30-
Swamplaw Yankee
September 15, 2025 at 3:35 am
There seems to be a Latin Language version of Hetman Orlyk’s April 1710 constitution. That seems to be housed in Sweden.
The MSM avoids reference to the 1710 constitution composed by Cossack Hetman Orlyk. Look up the phrase oldest written constitution and the year 1710 does not appear. The historians claim that Orlyk himself penned the concepts and there was no cribbing. Orlyk seems well educated for that time.
While the Cossack Orlyk Constitution was applied in Ukraine, the Kremlin Imperialism of Muscovy had limited the area of Ukraine in which it was applied to. The terrorist empire of Muscovy was expanding and Genocide was in its genetic makeup.
The Vod and Izhora ethnic group that made up the Veche Republic was between Rump Russia and the Baltic Ocean. The Muscovy Kremlin imperialism was expanding and Genocide was the way for the Veche state.
That is why, Xi has a great chance to win the NOBEL peace prize. The world knows this centuries old Ruusskie imperialism and the Xi-Zelensky deal would help solve many lethal scenarios.
MAGA POTUS Trumpkins, et al, does not have to be involved. Both Ukrainians and the PRC would immensely benefit in most fields, almost immediately.
Trump could still adore Putin 100% without having to worry about detracting stuff like being leader of the WEST. Putin could show Trump how to limit the US constitutional power of the legislative branch and take that Power into his own hands in the Executive Branch. Oh, Putin has and POTUS Trump has trimmed the power of Congress.
Oh well, Forget the Nobel Peace prize for Trumpkins if Xi makes the move of the Century. -30-