Key Points and Summary – Despite the hype surrounding China’s military modernization, its sixth-generation H-20 stealth bomber program is facing significant delays.
-A recent U.S. intelligence assessment suggests the bomber is unlikely to debut until the 2030s, contradicting earlier Chinese claims of an imminent unveiling.
China’s H-20 Stealth Bomber. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
-This timeline places the H-20 years behind its American counterpart, the B-21 Raider, which already had its maiden flight in 2023 and is expected to be operational by 2026.
-The slow progress serves as a caution against alarmism, highlighting the immense difficulty of developing such an advanced aircraft.
China’s 6th Generation H-20 Bomber Isn’t Proceeding As Quickly As You Might Think
In recent months, readers have received a steady stream of reports about the sixth-generation warplanes being developed by Chinese aerospace firms for the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) and People’s Liberation Army Naval Air Force.
These fighters include the Shenyang Aircraft Corporation’s J-50, also known as the J-XD/J-XDS, and the Chengdu Aircraft Corporation’s J-36, also known as the JH-XX — not to mention strategic bombers such as the Xi’an H-20.
J-50 Fighter Image from X
With so many stories published on these cutting-edge future warbirds, readers could certainly be forgiven for thinking that these projects are proceeding at a breakneck pace.
But, in the immortal words of legendary ESPN College GameDay personality Lee Corso, “Not so fast, my friend.” The H-20 bomber in particular is facing significant delays.
The Basics
An especially useful bit of context was provided in a December 2024 article by The War Zone’s ever-savvy Joseph Trevithick.
The title sums it up well: “China’s H-20 Stealth Bomber Unlikely To ‘Debut’ Until 2030s, According To U.S. Intel.”
To wit: “The U.S. military says it still does not expect China’s long-awaited H-20 bomber to make its ‘debut’ — unclear if this means its entrance into operational service or just its emergence publicly — until sometime in the next decade.
J-50 Fighter from China Weibo Image
Earlier this year, the [PLAAF] deputy commander was quoted as saying the unveiling of the aircraft, at least, would be coming ‘soon.’”
To quote more directly from a cited intel report, “The PLAAF is seeking to extend its power projection capability with the development of a new H-20 stealth strategic bomber, with official PRC state media stating that this new stealth bomber will have a nuclear mission in addition to filling conventional roles. The PLAAF is developing new medium- and long-range stealth bombers to strike regional and global targets. PLAAF leaders publicly announced the program in 2016; however, it may take more than a decade to develop this type of advanced bomber.”
Presumably, the H-20 will have a range of more than 10,000 kilometers, which would enable the PLAAF to threaten the western Pacific up to the second island chain — the line formed by Japan’s Bonin Islands and Volcano Islands, in addition to the Mariana Islands (particularly Guam, which hosts Andersen Air Force Base); the western Caroline Islands; Palau [where the brutal World War II Battle of Peleliu was fought); and western New Guinea.
America’s B-21 Raider: A Comparative Timeframe
The H-20 has yet to make an official maiden flight.
Yes, there were rumors of an H-20 flight taking place in January 2025, with a Shenyang J-16 “Hidden Dragon” multirole strike fighter purportedly serving as a chase plane.
Still, these rumors have yet to be independently vetted and verified. (The mystery aircraft in the imagery has an approximate length of 37 meters.)
By contrast, the U.S. Air Force’s contestant in the sixth-generation stealth bomber race, the Northrop Grumman B-21 Raider, already made its maiden flight on Nov. 10, 2023 (the day before Veteran’s Day, poetically enough), embarking from the Air Force Plant 42 in Palmdale, California.
A B-21 Raider conducts flight tests, which includes ground testing, taxiing, and flying operations, at Edwards Air Force Base, California, where it continues to make progress toward becoming the backbone of the U.S. Air Force bomber fleet. The B-21 will possess the range, access, and payload to penetrate the most highly-contested threat environments and hold any target around the globe at risk. The B-21 program is on track to deliver aircraft in the mid-2020s to Ellsworth Air Force Base, South Dakota, which will be the first B-21 main operating base and location for the B-21 formal training unit. (Courtesy photo)
This was 12 years after the warbird’s initial design under the Long Range Strike Bomber program.
Better still, the Raider is expected to go fully operational as soon as 2026, which would mean beating the H-20 to the punch by at least a solid four years.
Though many of the Raider’s tech specs are understandably still shrouded in secrecy, analysts estimate that its range exceeds 6,000 miles (9,656 kilometers), which means it would be able to easily strike targets in mainland China from U.S. soil or allied bases.
Meanwhile, Bill Sweetman of Aviation Week estimates that the Raider has a fuselage length of 54 feet, making it less than half the supposed size of the H-20, and presumably that would translate into a correspondingly smaller radar cross section.
B-21 Raider Stealth Bomber Artist Image. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
H-20 Bomber in 1 Word: Hype?
The lesson to be learned here is that while maintaining a healthy and wary respect for the PLAAF’s capabilities is important, it is equally important not to fall into alarmism about the Communist Party of China’s capabilities.
About the Author: Christian D. Orr, Defense Expert
Christian D. Orr is a Senior Defense Editor. He is a former Air Force Security Forces officer, Federal law enforcement officer, and private military contractor (with assignments worked in Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kosovo, Japan, Germany, and the Pentagon). Chris holds a B.A. in International Relations from the University of Southern California (USC) and an M.A. in Intelligence Studies (concentration in Terrorism Studies) from American Military University (AMU). He is also the author of the newly published book “Five Decades of a Fabulous Firearm: Celebrating the 50th Anniversary of the Beretta 92 Pistol Series.”
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