Does Putin Want a War with NATO?

Key Points and Summary – Recent Russian incursions—drones over Poland, MiG-31s into Estonia, suspected violations elsewhere—aren’t accidents; they’re deliberate gray-zone probes.

-By using cheap UAVs and information ops, Moscow tests NATO’s response times, targets logistics nodes, and pressures allied cohesion while avoiding an Article 5 trigger.

Su-35 Fighter from Russia. Image Credit: Creative Commons.

Tu-22M Backfire Bomber from Russia. Image Credit: Creative Commons.

The piece contends a conventional war would be disastrous for Russia after staggering losses in Ukraine, degraded officer corps, and hollowed armor—but hybrid tools still bite.

-The recommended response is industrial and institutional: denser air defenses and stockpiles, resilient ports, cables, and fuel, automatic costs for interference, and tougher handling of offshore “spy” platforms. Call the bluff, close the seams, keep unity.

Can Russia Seriously Be Contemplating War With NATO?

Both NATO and Polish aircraft intercepted Russian drones in Poland in the alliance’s first direct military engagement with Moscow since the Kremlin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in 2022.

The response to the violation of Polish airspace occurred during a Russian aerial drone strike attack on Ukraine.

“There was an unprecedented violation of Polish airspace by drone-type objects,” the Polish military command said in a statement. “This is an act of aggression that posed a real threat to the safety of our citizens.”

Between September 9 and 10, 19  Russian drones entered Polish airspace. A NATO-led air defense response was immediately scrambled, with Polish F-16s and Dutch F-35s scrambled on a quick reaction alert mission.

Three of the drones were shot down, while at least eight others crashed within Polish territory. Another drone penetrated as far as 260km into Poland – deeper than the capital, Warsaw – forcing the temporary closure of four airports.

T-80 Tank Russian Army. Image Credit: Creative Commons.

T-80 Tank from Russian Army. Image Credit: Creative Commons.

An even more severe incident occurred on September 13, when three Russian MiG-31 fighters violated Estonia’s airspace for over 10 minutes. The aircraft flew parallel to the border, penetrating less than 10km into Estonian territory before being escorted back by NATO fighter jets.

There have been further suspected breaches in Denmark (which had just announced the purchase of “long-range precision weapons”), Finland, France, Germany, Latvia, Norway, and Romania. On October 3, drone sightings caused Munich airport to close for a few hours, and nearly 20 flights were canceled.

Make no mistake, this wasn’t “a mistake” by Moscow.

Russian President Putin still has visions of grandeur in his head about reforming the former Soviet Union, and believes he can “win” against NATO by eroding Western resolve.

If Putin does ignite a conventional war with the West, how would the Russian military fare?

Russia Is Intent On Trying to Split NATO Resolve Over Ukraine

Incursions are often deliberate acts of intimidation, though Russian officials typically deny responsibility or attribute them to technical error.

The question is, why would Russia risk conventional war with the West?

By using cheap decoy drones, Russia is probing for weaknesses in NATO’s integrated air defense systems. Analysts believe Russia is assessing the alliance’s reaction times and its willingness to respond to provocations, particularly in light of what they perceive as uncertain U.S. foreign policy.

The incursions are seen as part of a hybrid strategy to threaten and deter European support for Ukraine. The flight paths of drones during the September 2025 incident in Poland, for instance, indicated that they were headed toward Rzeszów-Jasionka Airport, a key NATO logistics hub for military aid to Ukraine.

Russian T-90M Tank. Image Credit: Creative Commons.

Some Russian officials have reportedly claimed the incursions were retaliation for Ukrainian strikes on Crimea, suggesting that such attacks would not be possible without NATO support.

Spreading disinformation. In the wake of the drone incursions, Polish social media was flooded with pro-Russian disinformation campaigns aimed at undermining public confidence in NATO and the Polish government.

Signaling escalation of the war. The incidents are viewed as a deliberate and dangerous escalation of Russia’s war in Ukraine. They send a clear signal that Russia perceives an advantage in prolonging the conflict and is prepared to push negotiations to the brink of wider conflict.

Article 4 Is Invoked, But Not Article 5 … Yet

The unprecedented incursion prompted Poland to scramble allied fighter jets and invoke Article 4 of the NATO treaty. The incident marked the first time Russian assets were shot down over NATO territory since the start of the war in Ukraine in 2022.

NATO’s Article 4 allows any member state to request consultations when it believes its territorial integrity, political independence, or security is threatened, initiating a discussion within the North Atlantic Council.

Unlike the collective defense guarantee of Article 5, invoking Article 4 does not automatically trigger military action; instead, it prompts allies to coordinate and address the concern, fostering understanding and potentially leading to joint decisions or actions.

Conventional War Would Be an Abject Disaster For Putin

Could Russia engage NATO in a conventional conflict? Only if they wanted to see their shattered military get annihilated in the skies and on the battlefields of Eastern Europe.

And yet we still see disinformation about the “might” of the Russian military, its ability to adapt, and increase military production, sustaining its war effort in Ukraine. That’s not true. The military has been forced to offer substantial bonuses to attract young men to join.

Russian casualties (killed and wounded) number more than 1,000,000. Russian military casualties from just January to August 2025 according to the Institute For the Study of War (ISW), indicates that Russian forces suffered a total of 281,550 casualties of which: 86,744 were killed in action (KIA), including 1,583 officers and 8,633 penal recruits; 33,996 are missing in action (MIA), including 11,427 penal recruits; 158,529 were wounded in action (WIA), including 6,356 officers and 16,489 penal recruits; and 2,311 were captured.

They’ve enlisted North Korean and Cuban “volunteers” who have been getting killed in inordinate numbers. Ukraine is far from a military powerhouse, and yet Russia hasn’t advanced more than a few miles in three and a half years.

Its elite formations and officer ranks have been virtually wiped out. They’ve had to resort to WWII Soviet full-frontal assaults because they lack the expertise for fire and maneuver and combined arms operations.

And they are still short of manpower, which was why they emptied the prisons, offering pardons for convicts. Russia’s armor has been decimated, and they’ve been forced to bring ancient T-55s and T-62 tanks out of mothballs.

NATO’s militaries are modern, and its airpower would sweep the skies of Russian aircraft in a matter of days. Russia never gained even air superiority over Ukraine. NATO would affect air dominance quickly. Europe’s aircraft are a mix of American and NATO airframes that will be more than a match for Russia’s.

Russia’s Hybrid Warfare Strategy Against Europe

Russia’s Hybrid War strategy blends conventional military force with covert sabotage, cyberattacks, disinformation, economic coercion, and other non-military means to weaken adversaries by operating just below the threshold of open conflict, thereby avoiding a kinetic response.

Moscow has long employed a range of tactics, which vary depending on the location and situation. Yet, the underlying goal remains constant: to undermine Western democratic institutions and erode Western resolve over their unprovoked invasion of Ukraine.

For the Kremlin, these efforts are part of what it sees as an ongoing war with NATO (and the West) itself. Western support for Ukraine, from weapons transfers to intelligence sharing, is viewed by Moscow as no less threatening than direct participation in the conflict.

By keeping up steady pressure, Russia seeks to test NATO’s resolve and signal that it can retaliate well beyond the battlefield in Ukraine. Russia is operating in the “Gray Zone,” the space on the spectrum of conflict between war and peace.

Russian spy ships have been loitering over underwater cables. The time for half measures is gone. In the future, these spy ships should be seized until they stop the escalations.

Russia is not operating from a position of strength. It is time to show them that.

About the Author: Steve Balestrieri 

Steve Balestrieri is a National Security Columnist. He served as a US Army Special Forces NCO and Warrant Officer. In addition to writing on defense, he covers the NFL for PatsFans.com and is a member of the Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA). His work was regularly featured in other military publications.

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