The Iran War has clearly not gone as well as Donald Trump hoped. It has not led to a quick and easy victory, or regime change in Iran, or the restoration of a pro-Western regime there, or a permanent end of Iran’s nuclear program.
If a goal was stability for energy prices, that hasn’t happened either.
President Donald Trump participates in a commemorative tree-planting ceremony at the South Portico of the White House, Tuesday, April 8, 2025, to replace the Jackson Magnolia with a descendant sapling. (Official White House Photo by Daniel Torok)
Donald Trump. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
And now, there’s no easy way out of the conflict for the U.S. side.
A CNN analysis published this week by Stephen Collinson, titled “At every fork in the road on Iran, Trump’s choices get worse,” notes that Trump is now left with very few good options when it comes to extracting the U.S. from the Iran conflict.
“President Donald Trump has arrived at yet another fork in the road on Iran.
But each time he reaches such a point, his options only become more narrow, and the costs of any course of action grow,” Collinson writes.
He notes that the U.S. has now called for a “pause” in air strikes, while Trump has continued to insist that the war effort is “locked and loaded” to continue.
Some talks have taken place between the parties, although CNN notes there’s little indication that Iran will back off its demand to continue controlling the Strait of Hormuz.
Back to Square One on Iran War
“Trump finds himself back in a familiar spot,” Collinson writes. “He’s tried to coerce Iranian concessions with intensified attacks.
But this plan is not working any better now than it did after the initial round of fighting.
He could increase the pressure by deploying ground troops, a move that might take advantage of the US military edge.
But this would risk significant US casualties in an already deeply unpopular war.”
Some U.S. service members were killed earlier this month, which led to a controversy in which the war death tally suddenly dropped from 18 to 14.
The Trump Administration gave differing explanations, including that the four most recent service member deaths did not count since they came after the ceasefire, while a Pentagon spokesperson called it a mistake.
By the weekend, a new category had been created on the website, “Overseas Operations,” which included those four deaths.
Meanwhile, Trump was criticized for posting a graph of U.S. service members killed in different wars of the past, and seeming to brag about how few had lost their lives in the Iran conflict.
And now, political problems related to the Iran conflict are growing for Trump, just over three months from the midterm elections in the U.S.
“The political heat is rising. A jump in oil prices last week creates the likelihood of higher gasoline costs and more angst for the majority of Americans who oppose the war — although Brent crude, the international benchmark, fell more than 5% Sunday,” the CNN analysis says.
“An alternative oil shipping route through the Red Sea is now being threatened by Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels.
Global crude inventories are approaching critically low levels, stoking fears of a worsening energy crisis. All of this is unfolding ahead of the fast-approaching midterm elections in November in which Trump’s Republicans already face a tough ride.”
Indeed, gas prices are starting to look ugly.
Another Double-Digit Gas Price Gain
According to Gas Buddy’s weekly report, the average gas price in the U.S. has had another double-digit jump and is now safely over $4 per gallon.
The average is now at $4.06 per gallon, up 10.8 cents from a week earlier, 23.9 cents from a month earlier, and 95.6 cents per gallon from a year earlier.
And yes, instability in the Middle East, along with some Ukrainian strikes in Russia, are the main reasons why.
“Average gasoline and diesel prices rose in nearly every state over the last week, as continued escalations between the U.S. and Iran, renewed Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, and fresh Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries combined to keep upward pressure on both crude and refined product markets,” Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, wrote in GasBuddy’s report.
There is slight hope for a reversal, however.
“However, a weekend pullback in hostilities offered some relief, with oil prices opening sharply lower Sunday, suggesting the pace of increases at the pump may moderate in the days ahead.
For now, motorists should expect prices to remain elevated, but the intensity of further gains will depend heavily on how the geopolitical situation develops in the coming week.”
About the Author: Stephen Silver
Stephen Silver is an award-winning journalist, essayist, and film critic, and contributor to the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Broad Street Review, and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. For over a decade, Stephen has authored thousands of articles that focus on politics, national security, technology, and the economy. Follow him on X (formerly Twitter) at @StephenSilver, and subscribe to his Substack newsletter.
