The current war in Ukraine has lasted longer than World War II did for Russia, but they have not yet achieved one of their primary goals of the war.
But this war in Ukraine has backfired, not just militarily, but politically as well. His needless invasion of Ukraine nearly four and a half years ago has fundamentally changed Europe’s political and security landscape.
Putin with a Rifle. Image Credit: Russian State Media.
Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, but the war started eight years before that when it seized Crimea and parts of the Donbas, with the appearance of “little green men.”
Putin’s Actions Skewered His Own Goals
One of Putin’s main objectives was to prevent NATO from expanding further eastward. His invasion of Ukraine has had the opposite effect.
Finland, which shares an 840-mile border with Russia, requested and was granted NATO membership, along with Sweden. The Finnish people have no love lost for Russia.
Putin’s miscalculation of how the West would react has cost him over a million casualties, an incredible number of vehicles, aircraft, ships, artillery, and equipment lost, and now NATO is on his border in the strategic Arctic region.
Other Nations Are Abandoning Russia
Countries directly in Russia’s neighborhood, such as Moldova and Georgia, have accelerated their bids to integrate with the West, looking to the European Union and NATO for security, economic stability, and defense against Russian coercion.
Vladimir Putin in Murmansk (2025-03-27). Image Credit: Creative Commons.
Rather than seeking direct entry into NATO, Moldova is interested in integrating with the European Union (EU). Some factions in Moldova have also explored potential unification with neighboring Romania, a current NATO member.
Georgia was promised eventual NATO membership at the 2008 Bucharest Summit, but has not yet been granted a clear timeline for membership
Ukraine Will Eventually Join The West
Rather than dividing or weakening Western institutions, especially NATO, his actions have backfired, resulting in the historic expansion of NATO and the realignment of formerly neutral or hesitant nations.
He believed the alliance would crumble and shatter due to the invasion of Ukraine. The only shattering being done is his military, which has suffered over 1.3 million casualties, including 352,000 dead.
Putin is facing increasing pressure both at the front and within the country. The Russian army’s offensive has slowed down, Ukrainian forces are beginning to take back territory, its resources are being depleted, and Ukrainian drone strikes are hitting the logistics and economy of the Russian Federation increasingly hard.
Military analysts are increasingly coming to the conclusion that Putin’s war aims, despite his insistence, are becoming increasingly unattainable.
With his chances of attaining a battlefield victory in Ukraine looking further from happening, Putin will then have to deal with his absolute nightmare that Kyiv will integrate with the West.
Ukraine is on a path to Western integration, with overwhelming public and political backing for membership in both the European Union and NATO. However, the exact timeline and the specific nature of these alliances are still far from being settled.
However, Putin’s aim of bringing Ukraine back into Russia’s sphere of influence is probably dashed forever. Ukrainian support for increasing integration with Russia was 10 percent in the year before the 2022 invasion. Now? It has to be near zero.
Ukraine’s joining the European Union (EU) Will Take Years
Ukraine officially began membership accession negotiations in 2024 and is actively pursuing integration.
While joining the EU involves navigating years of complex technical and legal reforms (such as judicial changes and anti-corruption measures), Western leaders and EU officials are treating Ukraine’s integration as a geopolitical priority.
Many Western leaders now believe that Ukraine’s path into the EU is inseparable from Europe’s own security and credibility.
Fast-track scenarios and novel accession models are being heavily discussed to help bring Ukraine into the economic fold as quickly as possible, some believe as early as 2027.
Ukraine Wants Security Guarantees In Lieu Of NATO Membership
Ukraine’s path to NATO is recognized by some allies as “irreversible,” with the traditional Membership Action Plan bypassed in favor of a one-step process.
However, because NATO cannot admit a nation currently embroiled in active territorial conflicts, the immediate focus after the war will likely center on binding, bilateral security commitments from the U.S. and key European powers.
These bespoke treaties will serve as a strong deterrent against future aggression while paving the way for eventual full membership in NATO. The Trump administration, however, has opposed Ukraine’s membership in the alliance.
This past December, President Zelenskyy said he was prepared to abandon Ukraine’s pursuit of NATO membership in exchange for tighter Western security guarantees.
“Bilateral security guarantees between Ukraine and the US, Article 5-like guarantees for us from the US, and security guarantees from European colleagues, as well as other countries – Canada, Japan – are an opportunity to prevent another Russian invasion,” he said.
“These security guarantees are an opportunity to prevent another wave of Russian aggression,” he added.
Although joining NATO and the EU may take time, the handwriting is on the wall. Russia and Putin overestimated their power and severely underestimated Ukraine’s will to resist and NATO’s solidarity.
The Russian war in Ukraine is rapidly turning in favor of Ukraine, and with continued Western support, this is a lost cause for Putin. His worst fears are being realized: NATO has expanded eastward, and it is all his doing.
One has to wonder now if his regime will survive this.
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About the Author: Steve Balestrieri
Steve Balestrieri is a National Security Columnist. He served as a US Army Special Forces NCO and Warrant Officer. In addition to writing on defense, he covers the NFL for PatsFans.com and is a member of the Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA). His work was regularly featured in many military publications
