Key Points and Summary – The era of stealth may be ending due to advances in quantum sensing, according to Rob McHenry, the Deputy Director of DARPA.
-In a recent webinar, McHenry argued that future quantum sensors, combined with AI and sensor fusion, will make it impossible for aircraft like the B-2 or F-35 to hide effectively.
B-2 Bomber. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
-He warned that the US must pivot to prioritizing electronic warfare (EW) and cyber capabilities, areas he believes are currently underappreciated by combat pilots.
-While some experts, like retired Lt. Gen. David Deptula, maintain stealth will always provide an advantage, McHenry’s warning signals a coming revolution in military technology.
DARPA: Stealth Could Become Obsolete, EW, Cyber Will Win The Next War
The era of stealth might be coming to a close, and it is being driven by quantum sensing, says the deputy director of the Pentagon agency (DARPA), which was instrumental in developing the first practical stealth aircraft.
Is stealth already moving into passe territory?
That’s a scary thought if you watched last weekend’s stealth bomber air strike on Iran play out.
Because, regardless of whether you believe that the strikes obliterated Iran’s nuclear enrichment program, or it set them back for only a few weeks, the mission was flawlessly executed, with the B-2 stealth bombers entering Iran’s airspace without a peep from the Iranians, who didn’t know they were there until bombs started falling.
And they were gone, invisible again.
Currently, the United States is at the top of the stealth world. China isn’t far behind. But according to Rob McHenry, the Deputy Director of the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), the US needs to ensure pilots value non-kinetic weapons just as much as missiles and guns to avoid losing the next war.
RIP, Stealth?
The “stealth era” may be coming to a close as future sensors emerge, Rob McHenry said on a webinar podcast hosted June 25 by the Air and Space Forces Association’s Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies.
“I don’t think we’re going to be able to hide, in an operational sense, in a realistic way,” McHenry said, “due to the sophistication of sensor fusion and track, using AI and other techniques.”
Cyber, EW Are The Keys, But Pilots Don’t Understand It Well Enough
He also stated that pilots don’t understand the role of cyber and EW sufficiently.
“They don’t actually see it. They don’t touch it. They don’t know it in the same way they know all the other combat capabilities that they’re responsible for,” McHenry said.
“I think all of these are fundamental mistakes that will cost us the next war, because cyber effects are going to be deployed at every level of combat in any future operation.”
The rise of quantum sensing will someday render stealth aircraft less effective, making them easier to identify and increasing the need for speed, self-defense measures, and other means of evading an enemy.
A B-2 Spirit makes a low pass flyover during the 2024 Warriors Over the Wasatch Open House and Air Show June 29, 2024, at Hill Air Force Base, Utah. The B-2 Spirit, the predecessor to the new B-21 Raider, has been the U.S. Air Force’s premiere stealth bomber for more than 20 years. (U.S. Air Force photo by Cynthia Griggs)
Currently, stealth remains the king; however, quantum sensing is a technology that is coming into focus.
Some Experts Aren’t Buying Into Quantum Just Yet
Lt. Gen. (Ret.) David Deptula, dean of AFA’s Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, said the need for stealth remains the key.
“Stealth increases the probability of penetration and decreases the probability of intercept of the stealthy aircraft,” Deptula said. “What Mr. McHenry raises is that those probabilities may be changing, but the fact is that they will continue to exist.”
McHenry stated that the U.S. needs to develop more defensive capabilities, particularly in the air domain. While naval vessels are “designed to take a hit and keep fighting,” he said, aircraft are not.
“We don’t have anti-missile missiles on our tactical aircraft,” he said. “You assume you’re going to get shot at and you can do something about it.”
Near Peer War With China Would Be Nightmarish
If the U.S. and China go to war over Taiwan, for example, that would be an “electromagnetic armageddon, the likes of which we have never seen before,” McHenry said. Both sides will seek to jam each other’s radars and communications.
The problem is, “we currently have no capability to even test our systems and comprehend what that could look like operationally,” McHenry said.
DARPA has been developing a program since 2019 named the “Digital RF Battlefield Emulator,” or DRBE, that consists of the largest supercomputer on the planet.
This will run a computer program that creates the world’s first large-scale virtual radio frequency (RF) environment for developing, training, and testing advanced RF systems, such as radar and electronic warfare (EW) systems.
B-2 Bomber. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
The target DRBE environment will enable numerous RF systems to interact with each other in a fully closed-loop RF arena, replicating dense, responsive, real-world RF environments.
Quantum Sensors Are Small And Powerful
McHenry said, “Right now in the agency, we’re transitioning from the era of quantum sensing as a science to quantum sensing as an engineering discipline that we can deploy in real-world situations and platforms.”
The next-generation quantum sensors are very compact – some are just a few cubic centimeters in size – but also extremely sensitive. McHenry added that such devices could detect even a milliwatt of emitted energy, enabling engagement at levels of detection previously thought impractical.
McHenry noted that these advancements are being developed not only to defend against adversaries exploiting stealth, but also to enhance U.S. capabilities to “track things virtually anywhere, anytime.”
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“The ability to do that in small, lightweight form factors is going to be fundamentally different than anything we’ve had before,” McHenry said. “We are about to see this wave of massive changes.”
In 2016, China’s state-run media outlet, the Global Times, made a bold claim that a Chinese defense contractor had successfully developed the world’s first Quantum Radar System, which can allegedly detect objects at a range of up to 62 miles (100 km).
Lockheed Martin’s Skunk Works was reportedly working on a similar project in 2008.
About the Author:
Steve Balestrieri is a National Security Columnist. He served as a US Army Special Forces NCO and Warrant Officer. In addition to writing on defense, he covers the NFL for PatsFans.com and is a member of the Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA). His work was regularly featured in many military publications.
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