Key Points – Following devastating US and Israeli strikes that have crippled its nuclear infrastructure, decimated its air defenses, and killed top commanders, Iran faces a monumental task in rebuilding its military.
-The regime’s immediate priority will likely be its missile arsenal, its primary tool for deterrence, potentially seeking components from China or North Korea.
-It will also try to reconstitute its conventional forces and may resort to asymmetric tactics like cyberattacks and activating its weakened regional proxies.
-However, with its military in shambles and facing the threat of further, more decisive action, Iran’s ability to meaningfully rebuild and project power is severely constrained.
How Will Iran Rebuild Its Defenses After Being Shattered
The Islamic Iranian regime has been decimated militarily after the past two weeks of constant Israeli airstrikes as part of Operation Rising Lion, and then the United States airstrikes using seven B-2 stealth bombers and 130 Tomahawk missiles on Iran’s nuclear enrichment sites in the aptly named Operation Midnight Hammer.
Currently, its air defenses are wiped out, and its aged and weak air force is similarly depleted, although there was little confidence that they would impact the air battle at all. Its missile stockpiles are still massive, but they’ve lost more than 50 percent of their launchers.
And its nuclear enrichment facilities have been hammered unless you believe the same DIA analyst who thought Russian collusion in the election was real and that Hunter Biden’s laptop was fake.
The Institute for Science and International Security assessed that the United States and Israeli strikes on Iran have “effectively destroyed” Iran’s enrichment program.
Israel eliminated the top 13 Iranian generals and many nuclear scientists.
The proof is in the pudding, as the old saying goes. Iran agreed to the ceasefire with Israel and has agreed to negotiations with the United States regarding its nuclear program. That would never happen if they were in any shape to resist.
How Can Iran Rebuild Its Military Defenses?
Iran will focus on rebuilding its military capabilities, particularly its missile program, while also resorting to asymmetric warfare tactics like cyberattacks and supporting regional proxies.
Despite damage from recent Israeli and US strikes, Iran retains the capacity for retaliation and continued, albeit limited, regional influence.
Now comes the hard part. Iran, whose air defenses hadn’t recovered from the Israeli airstrikes in October, now faces even more rebuilding.
Its air force is virtually non-existent, and acquiring a handful of Russian Su-57s won’t quickly fix it.
Missile Program and Conventional Forces: Iran will prioritize rebuilding its missile arsenal, which is a key component of its deterrence strategy.
This action could involve both domestic production and potentially seeking supplies from allies. Russia is having a hard time keeping its own forces supplied in Ukraine. Supplies and hardware would probably come from China or North Korea.
Rebuilding conventional forces, especially air defenses, is a must.
Asymmetric Warfare and Proxy Warfare: Iran may turn to asymmetric warfare tactics, including cyberattacks and supporting regional proxies, to retaliate against Israeli or Western threats.
Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, Houthi rebels in Yemen, and Iranian-backed militias in Iraq have been weakened and were strangely silent during the airstrike campaign. However, these and other groups could be utilized to exert pressure on regional rivals and the US.
This approach allows Iran to strike back without direct confrontation with the US or Israel. But that plausible deniability is no longer a true cape to hide behind.
Nuclear Program: While recent Israeli and US airstrikes have targeted Iran’s nuclear facilities, if Iran does seek to restart or expand its nuclear program, potentially by withdrawing from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, it is a double-edged sword.
This would be a high-risk move, inviting further airstrikes by the IAF or the US.
Domestic Priorities (Survival mode): The Iranian regime is likely to prioritize its own survival and stability, which may involve a combination of military rebuilding and diplomatic efforts.
They may seek to strengthen alliances with countries like Russia and China, who have shown willingness to work with Iran. Those two countries will try to resupply the Islamic Iranian Republic to keep the US occupied in the Middle East.
However, the slightest miscalculation or misjudgment could lead to a wider regional conflict and more destruction for Iran.
They are no longer in a position to threaten regional countries as they were before. If they try to close the Straits of Hormuz or attack any further against American bases or allies, it will be the end of the regime. It’s evident that if they do that, there will definitely be a decision to topple the regime.
About the Author:
Steve Balestrieri is a National Security Columnist. He served as a US Army Special Forces NCO and Warrant Officer. In addition to writing on defense, he covers the NFL for PatsFans.com and is a member of the Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA). His work was regularly featured in many military publications.
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