Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, is in a pickle. And the Ukrainian Security Service put him there by launching a spectacular drone attack against several military airports and possibly destroying or damaging 41 planes.
Regardless of the tactical or strategic importance of the strikes and their implications for warfare, the Ukrainian attack is a personal and political embarrassment for Putin.
Putin’s Ukraine War Pandora’s Box He Can’t Close
On the one hand, the brazenness of the attack undermines Putin’s legitimacy as Russia’s omniscient and omnipotent leader.
Who, but an incompetent, would permit such a disaster to happen on his watch?
On the other hand, the attack underscores the rottenness of Putin’s political and military systems.
The Ukrainians smuggled in over 100 drones, placed them in trucks driven by Russians who appear not to have known what they were transporting, and directed the whole operation from a site near a local Russian Security Service headquarters.
Clearly, a vast array of Russian officials weren’t doing their jobs.
How Will Putin Respond to the Drone Attack?
Putin now faces several difficult choices.
He could do and say nothing, as he did in the immediate aftermath of the strikes.
The Russian media were exceptionally reticent in their reporting, which may be indicative of a stunned confusion or of a deliberate strategy, well-known to Russians since the days of Potemkin Villages, of pretending that all is well even in the worst of times.
Russia’s xenophobic bloggers know better, and have expressed outrage, but their audience is limited and Putin could probably get away with pretending that nothing really happened.
Except, of course, that Russia’s political, security, and economic elites—in other words, the people who matter—know better. They know that Putin and his system have failed and that he knows he’s got to do something to reestablish his authority.
But what? And when?
Some unhinged Russians have called for retaliation with nuclear weapons, but even Putin knows that would immediately transform Russia into a pariah.
A large-scale attack against Ukrainian cities and civilians would be doable, but the problem is that it’s been done many times before and would rather be interpreted as a sign, not of strength, but of weakness.
MORE: Putin Could Test Tactical Nuke In Response to Drone Strike
That leaves targeting some Ukrainian military installations, but figuring out how to overcome their defenses could take time.
Putin Has Even More Problems
And this leads to Putin’s other challenge. Ideally, he should have retaliated immediately after the strike—but he didn’t. If he waits too long, he risks alienating Russian elites. If he hurries, he risks doing something stupid that could end in a military embarrassment and loss of face.
Putin’s pickle is Russia’s pickle. The Ukrainian attack demonstrated that Ukraine is far from defeated and that Mother Russia may be on the slippery slope to disaster.
Her son, Putin, started the war. She may end it by losing.
About the Author: Dr. Alexander Motyl
Dr. Alexander Motyl is a professor of political science at Rutgers-Newark. A specialist on Ukraine, Russia, and the USSR, and on nationalism, revolutions, empires, and theory, he is the author of 10 books of nonfiction, including Pidsumky imperii (2009); Puti imperii (2004); Imperial Ends: The Decay, Collapse, and Revival of Empires (2001); Revolutions, Nations, Empires: Conceptual Limits and Theoretical Possibilities (1999); Dilemmas of Independence: Ukraine after Totalitarianism (1993); and The Turn to the Right: The Ideological Origins and Development of Ukrainian Nationalism, 1919–1929 (1980); the editor of 15 volumes, including The Encyclopedia of Nationalism (2000) and The Holodomor Reader (2012); and a contributor of dozens of articles to academic and policy journals, newspaper op-ed pages, and magazines. He also has a weekly blog, “Ukraine’s Orange Blues.”
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Zhduny
June 4, 2025 at 2:12 pm
It’s less russia than europe or the world. The dire result aWaits.
Russia is likely to eventually win the struggle against the nazis, but faces the prospect of being confronted by a member or members of NATO before final victory.
But What would final victory be like. What would it resenble.
Would it resemble a new dawn for russia like What was presented to the USSR after 1945, or would it be more like afghanistam after august 2021.
That’s What russia MUST condider now. Aand What weapons russia needs to employ before securing final victory.
Taco
June 4, 2025 at 3:04 pm
I prefer to think the one country that could lose big, lose real big, is china.
China has been playing a shady double game in the ongoing struggle between moscow and the fascist regime in kyiv.
Now, with trump as US president, china can still change course, and help bring about peace but xi jinping can’t be trusted to do do.
Xi is an expert at playing the double game, at home painting himself as a graft buster but channelling billions of bucks abroad to purchase dubious friendship and support.
Xi should tell or even demand trump to divide ukraine into two regions, one for the fascists and one for the non-fascists.
That could pave the way to avoid a coming NATO-russia fight, but xi won’t do it.
Instead, xi is just content with the current status quo, as both sides continue to hammer away at each other.
Xi is totally not on the side of peace. China will regret this one day.
bobb
June 4, 2025 at 4:58 pm
Vladimir vladimirovich has shown to the russian people that he’s a poor leader, so he needs to be replaced.
Dmitry medvedev could soon take his place, and he is likely to give the russian people the victory they have always wanted.
Putin, He’s past his use-by date and needs to be chased away. The sooner the better.
Russia MUST achieve victory against the ukrainian nazis and their backers. No other option.
Commentar
June 4, 2025 at 11:40 pm
Russia can’t possibly lose as the sun won’t ever rise in the west each morning.
But the worst thing right now is the US has again vetoed a UN ceasefire for gaza on wed 4 june 2025.
But who’s to blame.
Xi jinping.
Xi’s exports of rare Earth products help US and other countries to supply Israel with weapons to pound gaza civilians on a daily basis.
So, US and Israel and co don’t want any ceasefires.
Xi hasn’t been supporting russia either.
He has been trying to portray himself as a man of peace and mum’s the word.
He should open his maw and say “No rare Earth exports to USA until trump orders the murderous nazis to abandon donbass.”
But he has kept his mouth shut preferring the bloodshed to go on while his sidekicks boast about economic growth via great reuters-inspired ‘stimulus’ and other big stupidities.
To HELL with xi jinping.
Julien Beaudet
June 5, 2025 at 11:33 am
Pearl Harbor happened, then the US won the war. The author has been an ukrainian cheerleader for at least 3 years now, but whatever good this attack does for appearances, the bombers in question weren’t used in the Ukraine theater, and the three tenants of conventional warfare (industrial depth, economic depth, capacity to mobilize manpower), still favor Russia. Ukraine is bleeding men, bleeding money, given less and less equipment by its allies whose weapon stocks are diminishing. Thousands of videos of the TCC grabbing men off the street to force them into the war have been published. Its perspectives are grim, especially if the US believes Beijing is interested to move onto Taïpei. Desperately, it lashes out as it can and attacks targets of opportunity. These are ships or strategic assets, both far removed from the conflict – in essence, a land war of attrition. Ukraine goes into doomed attacks as it did in Kursk oblast to occupy the media sphere and give its mouthpieces arguments in its favor. All of this fools no one. Go back and read what M. Motyl wrote after Ukraine rode into Russia – supposedly a great victory, but now the territory it took is gone, as are the hundreds of vehicles and a couple dozen thousands of men it foolishly spent and would now need to hold the frontline. So who is really stuck in this war? If the aid were to stop, Ukraine couldn’t even pay the pensions of its hundreds of thousands of amputees, let alone its public servants. It currently has the worst debt-to-GDP ratio in the world. Putin might survive a peace treaty, but Mr. Zelensky would be a dead man walking. His country is destroyed, demographically (to death & emigration) and economically, its most ressource-rich regions are gone, its infrastructure attacked daily by a superior foe. It is both a rump State, and a failed State, a beggar nation dependent on foreigners for survival, as it now has for years.
Julien Beaudet
June 5, 2025 at 11:45 am
Apologies to the author as well as readers of these comments – Ukraine does not have the worst debt-to-GDP ratio in the world. The source I relied upon for this claim was untrustworthy.
Swamplaw Yankee
June 6, 2025 at 8:26 pm
The above author is a rare asset to this site. Motyl is a rare op-ed artist who has a grasp of the thousand year old genocide war of the orc muscovite elite against Ukrainians. Motyl knows and integrates the facts of history that the thousand year old genocide war on Ukrainians consists of. Read his bio.
In contrast, many sites have published instant experts on Ukraine, hacks that have never read a Ukrainian language history of the Ukraine. These phony experts, hacks that need pica space to fill for some blabbing, claim to understand the USA, the geopolitical spheres and the hatred of the peasant orc russian ethnic of their neighbour, the Ukrainian families.
The USA has a critical connection to this war. As a nation, there is a connection that seems nearly forgotten in current msm. The USA UNILATERALLY greenlighted the free, no cost, give-away of the geopolitical advantage of owning the Ukrainian Crimean land mass and the Black/Azov sea zones to the prime vile cold war enemy of the WEST: Putin. The Obama-Biden-Democrat cabal covertly unilaterally demanded a smooth giveaway of all Ukraine’s families to Putin’s “little green groomer” kidnappers ready to air-ship Kidnapped children back to the peasant ethnic russian fatherland.
Conversely, in 2025, Democrat cabal fascist stonewallers, avoid all mention of the O-B-D role in the 2013-14 POTUS role. But, they have zero evidence to share that the USA made any public issue of this geopolitical betrayal inside the USA or with all or even an assortment of their WEST allies. What ALLY country did POTUS Obama approach to debate/share/dialogue, etc., about this huge geopolitical sphere loss to the cold war enemy: Putin?
POTUS Obama-Biden knew that Putin’s “little green groomers” immediately started collecting kidnapped children from butchered parents. Local russian speaking traitors knew which Ukrainian family to butcher to have kiddies to trade to Putin’s groomers for Russian Federation armour, tanks, ammo, etc. Did POTUS Obama ever demand of Putin’s orc muscovite elite that this vile sex trade in children never begin and, when started, immediately stop? No one from the O-B-D cabal in 2015 shows transparency on this “exotic” issue. Or, the peer readers can high light all the revealing publications.
In fact, in 2013-14 , the Epstein era was in full swing, with Democrat elite rubbing shoulders with Jeffrey Epstein himself in high level social circles. Who in the OBAMA-Biden-Democrat cabal tried to blow the whistle on Epstein in the MSM? One notices the huge rush of the O-B-D cabal to the MSM to document this point.
That Putin, was reverting to his centuries old tradition of peasant orc ethnic russian forefathers, “harvesting” the hinterland of Ukraine of children for their deviant needs and the huge GNP profit sex trade profit in Ottoman gold with the muslim sex traders in the Crimea in the fort of Caffa, was no secret or indication of 2014 era moral turpitude.
Everyone in the O-B-D cabal knew that the ancient genetic dep need of the ethnic russian for “Lolita” was satisfied in the bi-annual caravans that set out from muscovite peasantry to “harvest” ukrainian children across the Ukraine. The centuries of muscovite deviants never traded the Ottoman Muslims for Negro, arab or oriental kiddies. The muscovite pedophiles for centuries demanded “Lolita” style every fresh year. POTUS Obama was so very satisfied that no very dear DEI theory would be intruded on by the “Lolita” focussed “little green groomers” that his Democrat cabal unilaterally greenlighted! Today, 11 years later, zero Democrat elite demand that Putin immediately pre-pays $10,000,000 in gold bullion as compensation and reparation for each and every kidnapped Ukrainian victim since the O-B-D greenlighting.
In fact, every USA structure, refuses to demand on the msm the immediate gold bullion compensation for the victimized children. The POTUS on down the structure all seem to agree to give the Putin sex trade victimization organization another two weeks of free, no-cost tender cuddling of the forced victims. Oh yeah, they all want to gift Putin’s pedophiles with 11 years of free language lessons + table top dancing. Forget the gold bullion, Putin, if Obama gave it all to you free in 2014, why should Trump want reparation/compensation gold bullion in 2015?
The Putin elite all laugh at the USA + its MSM and giggle on their TV that grandmothers in Europe are the only ones with an interest. The orc muscovite elite may be very correct that Ukrainian grandmothers in exile may be the only interest group exposing this international moral turpitude.
The reader is fortunate indeed to read Motyl op-ed’s that come from within a knowledgeable diaspora Ukrainian. -30-