The Treaty
Iran lost the war militarily — and may have won the negotiation anyway. US intelligence reportedly believes Iran can now shut the Strait of...
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National Security Journal
Ukraine War
The likeliest place is a narrow corridor between Kaliningrad and Belarus — NATO's only land route to the Baltics. The goal wouldn't be territory....
Ukraine War
Most likely to bring Putin to his knees is Ukraine’s progressive strangulation of Crimea. If Russian soldiers and civilians continue to flee the peninsula,...
Ukraine War
The Nuclear Stigma Has Held for Eighty Years: A Single Tactical Nuke in the Ukraine War Could End It
The case against tactical nuclear use is not only humanitarian. If such weapons are shown to accomplish what the largest conventional munitions cannot, every...
The Treaty
American nonproliferation policy treats the spread of nuclear weapons as uniformly destabilising. A body of scholarship associated with Kenneth Waltz and Christopher Layne holds...
Military Hardware: Tanks, Bombers, Submarines and More
Kyiv's partners have given $300 billion and counting — the problem isn't will, it's arithmetic. America burned two-thirds of its Patriots on Iran, Moscow...
Military Hardware: Tanks, Bombers, Submarines and More
One new appointee led the assault on Kyiv and the Kursk counterattack. The other reportedly planned Avdiivka's fall and now runs Russia's drones. The...
Military Hardware: Tanks, Bombers, Submarines and More
The numbers behind the blowup: roughly 800 Patriot interceptors left of 2,330, THAAD stocks slashed, ATACMS nearly gone, Tomahawks at half of plan —...
Ukraine War
Wildberries isn't much of a military target — it's a target Ukraine can reliably reach. But every drone Russia shoots down is money burned,...
Ukraine War
A seafood shop bombed, a vegetable seller chased down the street on camera, a children's hospital struck while its patients sheltered below. Ukrainians now...
Ukraine War
The math is merciless: Lockheed's 600 Patriots a year against Russia's 700 Iskanders and counting. With winter's grid war coming, Kyiv's president is quiet...
The Treaty
The war was pitched as four days to five weeks. Six months later, Hormuz is still closed, the Houthis hold Bab el-Mandeb, and Iran's...
The Treaty
Oil traders aren't celebrating yet — the last agreement collapsed within weeks. This one reportedly gives Iran a level of control over the world's...
The Treaty
Steve Balestrieri reports that Trump wants an Iran-Oman deal on the strait within a day, warning of what he calls decapitation strikes and describing...
Dollars and Sense
Iran controls the inbound lane. Oman controls outbound. The nuclear question goes back to a table it never left. For a president who sorts...
Dollars and Sense
Exxon's Gulf plants ran at 95 percent last quarter, Chevron's at 97, Shell's above 102. Those numbers look like strength. They describe an industry...
Dollars and Sense
Russia doesn't have enough air defenses to guard Moscow, its nuclear sites, and its refineries all at once. Every choice leaves something exposed —...
North Korea Talk
Reuben F. Johnson reports that an official with Ukraine's Defense Intelligence Service says a North Korean missile unit has begun deploying personnel, missiles and...
North Korea Talk
Jack Buckby reports that Ukraine's Main Intelligence Directorate told Reuters a North Korean missile unit has begun deploying to Russia's Voronezh region, potentially bringing...
North Korea Talk
North Korea and Russia are finishing their first-ever road bridge, officially economic but believed to be a covert military supply route—trucks are far harder...
Ukraine War
Biden wouldn't give Ukraine the missiles to strike Moscow, fearing it would hand Putin a pretext to escalate. One argument now holds that refusal...
Ukraine War
Ukraine's war may be about to reach a new country. President Zelensky gave Belarus a one-week ultimatum — remove the Russian drone equipment on...